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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Mar 6, 2022, 1:17 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old May 28, 2022, 6:19 pm
  #301  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP, Hyatt Glob, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Plat, Total Wine & More Reserve
Posts: 4,519
Originally Posted by redtop43
I'm aware of that, but the number of seats in the "undisclosed" bucket can't exceed the C bucket.
Assuming you mean upgrade C, not sure that’s true.

Last month I cleared into R with a complimentary upgrade even though I had a SWU waitlisted. Never got a EF alert for C at any point either.
econ is offline  
Old May 28, 2022, 9:35 pm
  #302  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP 1MM, WOH Globalist
Posts: 1,160
Originally Posted by EJRofChicago
What does everyone think about the upgrade chances of a Platinum traveling ORD>DCA on a 737 on a Wednesday, ~12noon departure?
I flew ORD-DCA earlier this month on a Thursday, ~1pm departure if memory serves. I am a Plat with nearly 100k LPs YTD. I think I was 12th on the list 🙄
njvandy is offline  
Old May 28, 2022, 10:47 pm
  #303  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
Log on AA1886 PHL-LAS 4PM Sunday May 29:

T-101: Apparently 9 (of 20) F seats available. (Basing conclusions like this on a combination of EF, seat map, and going online to see how many tickets I could buy.
T-99: I and my companion are upgraded. EF shows C7 but open seats in F have gone from 9 to 7.
Through T-30: Seems that nothing changes
T-30: I look at seat map and there are now 10 F seats unassigned.
T-18: Availability is now C1J2 and there are 3 unassigned seats in F.

So I got upgraded at T-100 and they had quite a few F seats unspoken for, and they seem to have given most of them away around T-24.

So counting this one I'm about 9/10 on upgrades this year as a low-LP EXP. I'm feeling pretty happy. Of course things could evolve through the year. I have my next three trips already booked except for one segment, all in paid F. But I think I will be able to rachet down my amount of travel and even buy Y sometimes and still requalify for EXP, and if I have decent upgrade chances why not?
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Old May 29, 2022, 8:48 am
  #304  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 7
A coworker and I are on AA1057 BOS-PHX on 5/30. Coworker has no status, I'm a PLT. I was keeping track of C upgrade space on EF to try to snag a BusinessExtra upgrade for my coworker so I set up an alert.
Up until T-48, EF showed C7 J7, with 9 unreserved seats, and no C upgrade. Right at T-48, I got upgraded, unreserved seats went from 9 to 4, and EF went to C3 J4. C upgrade still at 0.
Decided to use the BusinessExtra upgrade to put my coworker on the waitlist at that point.
At T-35, (which was around 1AM), I got an alert from EF for C upgrade space, but when I woke up it was gone, and EF was showing C0 J0. Coworker was not upgraded.
So, if I had been up at 1AM to see the alert, would I have been able to apply the BusinessExtra upgrade had I not put my coworker on the waitlist?
I'm assuming there is 0 chance of the upgrade going through now since he has no status.
windsnob is offline  
Old May 29, 2022, 5:13 pm
  #305  
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Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,094
July 4: easy upgrades?

On the afternoon of July 4, should upgrades be pretty easy on short domestic flights? Thanks.
WeekendTraveler is offline  
Old May 29, 2022, 5:31 pm
  #306  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
Originally Posted by WeekendTraveler
On the afternoon of July 4, should upgrades be pretty easy on short domestic flights? Thanks.
There's really no way to tell. What's your status and approimate LP's?

RIght now I"m on an A321 with 20F seats PHL-LAS. F is full but there were 0 on the waitlist, implying that all elites got upgraded. Maybe because it's the Sunday of Memorail Day weekend and most people are traveling Monday? I dunno. If it's a short flight, is it really a big deal? Or are you traveling with someone and don't want to get separated?
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Old May 29, 2022, 6:22 pm
  #307  
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Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,094
Originally Posted by redtop43
There's really no way to tell. What's your status and approimate LP's?

RIght now I"m on an A321 with 20F seats PHL-LAS. F is full but there were 0 on the waitlist, implying that all elites got upgraded. Maybe because it's the Sunday of Memorail Day weekend and most people are traveling Monday? I dunno. If it's a short flight, is it really a big deal? Or are you traveling with someone and don't want to get separated?
Thanks. About 85,000 LPs so far this year. I just want one of the single seats (A) on a regional jet and am debating whether or not to go ahead and pay for first class.

Edited to add: Platinum Pro.

Last edited by WeekendTraveler; May 29, 2022 at 6:34 pm
WeekendTraveler is offline  
Old May 29, 2022, 6:32 pm
  #308  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
Originally Posted by WeekendTraveler
Thanks. About 85,000 LPs so far this year. I just want one of the single seats (A) on a regional jet and am debating whether or not to go ahead and pay for first class.
The Flyertalk Mantra: "If you want to fly F, buy F."

You didn't give your status. I am EXP with a comparable number of LP's and I have done very well on UG's this year. I think I've missed at most one or two, and one that I missed was on a B787 where I was in PE anyway, and many more people will buy F when buying F comes with a lie-flat seat, so UG's are much harder on those birds.

If it means anything, I'm a very fussy flyer and hate flying Y, but I did get an exit row/MCE on a recent trip and it wasn't too bad. Especially with the huge increase in fares recently, I plan to buy some Y tickets for some upcoming trips, which I rarely do. (My UG's this year were for two trips where I was with a companion and one was a business trip, and that's why I bought Y on those trips.)
redtop43 is offline  
Old May 30, 2022, 8:01 am
  #309  
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Diamond, IC Amb
Posts: 5,511
EWR-PHX Memorial Day 10am departure. 20 seats in F.

EXP w/ 122k LPs upgraded with my gf at T-30….one person cleared at the gate.
355F1 is offline  
Old May 30, 2022, 1:58 pm
  #310  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: CP-ASEL,AMEL,G-IA in Tucson, Arizona, United States
Posts: 1,124
Busy holiday weekend. Friday TUS-PHX-LAS. PHX-LAS cleared seven hours before that flight and then TUS-PHX cleared three hours beforehand. I'm platinum.

Return trip was yesterday (Sunday). LAS-PHX I was 19th on the waitlist and didn't clear. I didn't note how many cleared. There were 20 F seats. PHX-TUS cleared less than an hour beforehand while I was sitting in PHX.
tlglenn is offline  
Old May 30, 2022, 9:55 pm
  #311  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Programs: AA Gold, Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 161
I'm 0 for 3 so far this year as a Plat with about 11K LPs.

Late March, LAX-AUS, midweek morning, 8th of 15, nobody got upgraded. Upgrade was offered online for $161 from about 6 days in advance through at least T-48.

5/24, LAX-DFW-DCA. First leg on the 777, so naively thought I had a good chance at upgrade. Not when the system is offering $162 upgrade for the whole journey! Great deal, but I decided to pass and be satisfied with my free PE seat. I was 8 of 21, 5 got upgraded, with the 5th pulled from PE right before the door closed. DFW-DCA on the 738, I believe F was full and nobody got upgraded.

Returning on 5/27, I had booked DCA-BOS-LAX, with BOS-LAX in Flagship J, for 28K miles! Alas, thunderstorms intervened. When it looked like I wouldn't get home with that itinerary, a great Admirals Club agent at DCA switched me to F on the A321 DCA-LAX. Perhaps due to the weather, there were only 8 people on the upgrade list, and 2 cleared.
JJ804 is offline  
Old May 31, 2022, 7:43 am
  #312  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Programs: $9 Fare Club
Posts: 1,482
DCA-DFW consistently has the longest upgrade lists of any AA flights I've taken from DCA. I imagine that's tough to clear even for EXPs.
ChurnieEls is offline  
Old May 31, 2022, 7:48 am
  #313  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP / LT PLT / 3MM, Marriott LT Gold
Posts: 35,389
First 2022 flight coming up on Friday; PVD-DCA-CHS with non-status companion on separate PNR. Both cleared at T-100 without a hitch. No email though.

It's nice not to have to worry about EQDs and not be forced to buy J when upgrades look easy. I already have ~150K non-flying LPs so no need to spend more than I need to on airfare.
vasantn is offline  
Old May 31, 2022, 3:51 pm
  #314  
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Australia
Posts: 2,814
Hi, apologies if this is the wrong thread.
I have Qantas Oneworld awards Australia to Indianapolis to London via JFK.
Thanks to rescheduling, my connection 15 June IND-JFK was changed back to 0805 departure leaving a long wait in JFK prior to BA departure at 0830.
There are no other direct IND-JFK connections scheduled for that day.
I would like to leave later in the day and there are some revenue options via DCA and BOS to JFK on E75 aircraft but nil award seats at the moment .
Some airlines move revenue inventory to award availability a few days prior to the date of departure.
Just checking via ExpertFlyer, some AA award eats are released some 2- 4 days ahead - none mainline.
Does awards release prior to departure happen with AA and any suggestions when to start looking.
ozflier is offline  
Old May 31, 2022, 5:46 pm
  #315  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,551
Originally Posted by ozflier
Hi, apologies if this is the wrong thread.
I have Qantas Oneworld awards Australia to Indianapolis to London via JFK.
Thanks to rescheduling, my connection 15 June IND-JFK was changed back to 0805 departure leaving a long wait in JFK prior to BA departure at 0830.
There are no other direct IND-JFK connections scheduled for that day.
I would like to leave later in the day and there are some revenue options via DCA and BOS to JFK on E75 aircraft but nil award seats at the moment .
Some airlines move revenue inventory to award availability a few days prior to the date of departure.
Just checking via ExpertFlyer, some AA award eats are released some 2- 4 days ahead - none mainline.
Does awards release prior to departure happen with AA and any suggestions when to start looking.
When was your original flight? Do you now have an overnight stay in JFK? But if your departure was at 0830 it seems like you were going to have an overnight regardless.

The routing is a bit confusing, since there are no direct flights from OZ to IND. Could you be clearer about the routing, the original flights, and the changed flights (including day and time), who is the operating carrier in each case, and what carrier you booked the flight with?

Carriers will often force open award space on their own metal if they cancel flights. So say I'm flying, oh, IND-CLT-LHR, all on AA, using AA miles, and the CLT-LHR flight is cancelled and there is space on the one other CLT-LHR flight but not award space. AA may open it up. However, if the cancelled or the alternative flights are on BA, they will have less leverage to do so.
redtop43 is offline  


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