Also depends (in this case) on whether or not CX will release it to AA. One of the CX flights I wanted HKG-SFO was not released to AA, which is why I went via LAX on an AA codeshare / marketed flight.

Nope. AA relabeled domestic "First" as "Business" in early 2017, and changed the fare codes from A and F to I, D, and J. A and F are now reserved for first class on three class aircraft, whether domestic or international. However, if you book a trip on aa.com you'll still see domestic first labeled First in the fare display, and on your ticket receipt it will say First.

It is my sense that - all other things equal - transpac flights to and from DFW have much more upgrade waitlisting than those to/from LAX and ORD.

Has this been others' observation, or not as much?

Looking for advice on an upcoming JFK to SFO transcon flight. Flying Tuesday 3/12 at 4pm and there are currently 17 business seats open and only 7 seats booked in MCE (I am assuming all Plat & up). I have 29 500 mile upgrades and no real expectation that I could burn through them all this year. From what I understand this route likes to fill up last minute. If the flight were today I would think my chances of upgrade using e500 are almost certain, but wanted to gather some input on if I should take the chance and try to use the e500s or just bite the bullet and use miles + copay to upgrade.

I fly PHL-LAS-PHL monthly, and my return flights are almost always Friday night redeyes, occasionally Thursdays. I made a point to make PlatPro this year. I'm traveling tomorrow (29 hours from now). My outbound was PHL-LAX-LAS and I was upgraded LAX-LAS at T-72. Last month I was upgraded on the homeward redeye at T-72. This week, at T-72 there were 7 F seats open on the seatmap (I know there could be some tickets sold but unassigned), at T-48 there were still 6 seats, as now still 6 seats, F tickets available for purchase and no "n seats left" notation. On the way out, the PHL-LAX leg was an A330 with lie-flats in first and while I had no expectation at all of being upgraded, I was #6 on the upgrade list, which was higher than I'd have expected to be.

So I'm surprised to have not been upgraded yet. I don't expect a huge last-minute rush for elites to book the Friday night redeye OUT of Vegas, nor do I think there are too many people flying into Vegas to connect to the redeye. I still have reasonable confidence I'll be sitting up front, but does anyone have speculation what's going on? (Also, no bad weather anywhere that I'm aware of.)

P.S. Upgraded at T-26. Currently showing two open seats in F at T-23.

I'd probably play the wait and see game. The 16:00 and 18:00 flights tend to be more business heavy than the other flights, but you're flying on a Tuesday, which might help you. C space on this route (at least from what I've seen) generally doesn't open up until a few days before at the earliest, so I'd reassess the loads about a week out or so and then make a decision whether you want to put yourself on the C-space waiting list. There's no longer any benefit to waitlisting early, and unless I'm wrong and C space opens up well in advance (there currently is none), there's really no harm in waiting and seeing. If you have EF, you should set an alert for C space.

Flying DFW-LAX rt next week on the 789 both flights. Both are J7, outbound (Tuesday) showing 8 open on the seat map and return (Thursday) showing 16. Considering whether I should waitlist miles+copay, or just rely on my EXP comp. Thoughts?

Rolling EQD may be important in this determination? In hub-hub flights out of CLT i have been surprised sometimes how low i am on the list at ~23k EQD.

Sorry, yeah that was a glaring omission. I've fallen off on my tracking data-entry, but I expect my rolling EQD is somewhere around 18k. So, not a big number...

Ha...and yet, overnight apparently the first one cleared!

Wow, and now the return is C3. It's a few days yet before the T-100 window even opens....really tempted to go ahead and confirm that one, even though my experience on the forward leg suggests I can save a few bucks by just keeping my powder dry.

...and patience was never my strong suit. Went ahead and pulled the trigger on the miles+copay. The seat map was a key factor there...6L was open, but otherwise it was all middles or galley-adjacent. So I figure even if I was eventually going to clear I'd probably end up in an inferior seat. Might as well spend the $75+15k.

DEN-ORD ,738, Saturday afternoon - cleared at gate (and went out with one empty seat in F)
ORD-DCA, 738, Saturday evening - cleared at gate (I was the only at gate upgrade that cleared).

I was glad to have cleared these - I switched to these flights day of departure to get out early before expected snow in Denver.

Reminder that it is a good thing that AA holds some seats back until departure...

Wondering what the odds are of clearing 2 upgrades on a MIA - GCM(grand cayman) flight Thursday evening going and Tuesday morning return to MIA