Any idea if they use my status+EQD or the original SWU holder's status+EQD?

Ding!! Light bulb just went off on my end. That was way too simple, but I think/suspect I knew this too.

I was always just wondering at times, why the upgrade list is so short at times. Have always chalked it up -to people hoping for an op-up situation before giving up miles=copay (more value to some) than a SWU.

Wanted to get seasoned AA flyers' perspective:
Got the try Gold trial and have 10 x 500 milers
Looking to fly JFK-LAX mid-week (Tue afternoon) and Basic Economy is $30 less. BE fare only $119; regular economy is $149
Need 2 tickets

Any realistic chance if I pay an extra $60 that these will clear? Given how elite heavy (and bottom rung my elite status is), I'm presuming no. But then again, I don't know if Tuesday afternoon flights (end of March) are filled with elites or not.

Alternatively, AS has regular economy for $119 and similar time, which I would probably take otherwise.

Probably not, but would need to know the specific flight to make a guess. For a flight that long I'd pay the extra $30 just to have the ability to pick my own seat and potentially be able to switch to an MCE seat at T-24. And Basic Economy gets you only half the EQMs of regular economy. Isn't your Gold challenge based on EQMs?

It is... but honestly, I've given up on chasing status a few years ago. Had top tier on the 3 majors in the past but now I don't fly enough to justify status, especially everything is out of my own pocket.

The invite to Gold challenge was nice but realistically, I won't be flying more than 4 flights a year that would be of any consequence (transcon or greater). Rest of my flights would be 1-2 hr hops. Figured if I can have decent chance using the 500 milers, may take a shot at it but don't plan on actually meeting the requirements.

The scheduled flight is on Tue 3/26, one of the afternoon flights. Revenue tickets are cheap; so presumption is that there isn't much demand. But for upgrades, I suppose that is an entirely different matter.

I remember back as an ExPlat/1K/Diamond NYC-LAX route was always a crapshoot trying to get instrument upgrades.

I'll accept the fact I'm better off buying a cheaper AS fare and still give me main cabin amenities than trying to use those 500 milers, and still be stuck in the back but payed 25% more.

It was 0% because this flight doesn't operate on 2/22.
The 1/22 flight only has 2 seats left for sale in business class, and 4 in Premium Economy. There seem to be a bunch of J reservations without seat assignments, which is sometimes indicative of a reservation that's held but not yet ticketed, and thus a higher chance of it being cancelled. That's probably the only thing that will get you to clear the waitlist, I'd be surprised if you were #1 or #2 as a Platinum. So net, my box says 14% chance of upgrade. :)

Often it means that many have cleared in advance. Contrary to popular belief, AA does often clear C upgrades in advance even when available J inventory is very low. My husband cleared SFO-JFK about a day before when the flight was J2. (And FWIW, ExpertFlyer never caught any C availability). His JFK-SFO flight was actually available for upgrade at booking, just over week in advance (it was C4 in fact), and it was a Friday late morning flight so not some crazy off-hour one.

Just to share my experience for LAX-LHR-LAX.

Both flights were wide open in J (I've been told it's less than 50% sold) before they cleared the upgrades. C opened up at T-35 hours (had to call in to request the upgrade to be confirmed) although I suspect that I will clear if I didn't call anyway, but better be safe than sorry.

Seems like they are really waiting until the very last few hours to clear the upgrades (understandable for a route that might get sell a lot of J tickets, but both my flights were about 60-70% full in J after all upgrades + employees have cleared and mid-week January TATL travel).

IIRC, my upgrades cleared around T-7 days last year.

My hunch is that inventory management is looking at the set of BA / AA LAX-LHR flights before making these decisions.

I use these flights all the time and sometimes my SWUs clear 3-4 weeks out (even at ticketing sometimes) and sometimes as late as T-36. It seems to bear little relation to the fullness of J on my flight, but a little more to the fullness of all the flights. Its surprising how many times 136 is almost empty in J and 108 is almost completely full.

HNL-PHX Need help
 

Hello guys, I need some advice on this.
I am trying to fly from HNL to LAS.
There is this HNL-PHX-LAS flight from AA which has the first segments with A330, so first class has lie flats.
I am recently upgraded to a trial platinum pro, so I am not familiar with the upgrade possibility.
The date is 2/3/19 Sunday, and it is a red eye flight. I assume people would love those lie flats....

Currently there are even award space available... I can redeem 37500 BA avios on it,which sounds reasonable. (I have lots of avios)
The cash price for economy all the way to LAS is at $250. However I would only buy this if I know I am likely to be upgraded to first, since there is a direct Hawaiian flight to LAS for $299.

So right now I have 3 possible options:
1. Redeem 37500 Avios (I value them at $500) + $5 to fly confirm in first HNL-PHX, and use buddy pass for PHX- LAS ($30)
2. Purchase HNL-PHX-LAS in economy for $250, and wait for that upgrade to first.
3. Purchase HNL to LAS in economy on Hawaiian Airline for $299.

Obviously option 2 is the best if I can be upgraded, if not, then 3 would be better. I dont mind option 1, but I would hate to know if option 2 is viable.

Here are some questions:
1. As a platinum pro, what is my chance of getting upgrade on this flight?
2. It says "72-hour upgrade window" for PPro, what does that mean? Does that mean there is no way for me to know if I am upgraded until T-72?
3. Would everything change if I have a companion with no status, and link to my reservation?
4. Any way to check the upgrade list?


Thanks!

I've got a couple of SWUs left that expire on Jan 31 and I have an upcoming trip to the east coast where I could relatively easily use SFO-JFK in the itinerary to try to go Y-J. I see J7/D7 on a few flights that day, I am at roughly $30k rolling EQD. Thoughts on my chances for clearing? I also could do SEA-JFK and avoid the connection not even needing the SWU knowing that I will have cleared a few days out anyway on that segment. anyone regularly burn SWUs on SFO-JFK who can comment.

Thanks for the reply! Fast and clear!

Yeah I just saw that J5. I think I am going to redeem my avios. Thanks!