My wife (who flies rarely) just got an email from AA for a complimentary upgrade to PP through May. I was Gold but am about to lose that status at the end of the month. We are thinking of taking to trip to Napa/Sonoma in April. We will be flying from PHL into any of the Bay area airports (SF, OAK, SJC or even SMF). We are planning to depart either Thurs or Fri and return on Tues. What is the chance for a upgrade based on her new PP status, and what airport(s)/times should we fly to maximize this chance - (or is the chance for an upgrade slim at best).

Just my two cents, but I would say that the chances are bad for the first leg out of PHL (PHL-ORD, PHL-DFW, PHL-LAX, PHL-CLT, PHL-PHX), because in all of those cases, you are hub to hub, not to mention at week's end. On the next flight, you could make it, but it would not be something to count on. Better chances with an A321, with 16 F seats, but who knows? Realistically, use the fact that you are booking now and not flying until April to get a couple of aisle exit row seats, which can be plenty comfortable, and just enjoy the upgrades if they show up.

Weird today. ORD-BDL today. Only 4 of 16 F occupied. Been many years since I have been on a flight that that empty. Also booked BDL-ORD-DFW for this Friday and cleared as soon as booked. My guess is work travel hasn't restarted in earnest yet.

I'm on a DEN-LHR-TLV flight this Friday, and the DEN-LHR leg (BA flight, 747) has barely 40% of the seats filled, just two days from departure. Not sure if it's holiday hangover, or work travel for many is on hold until companies see what the market is going to do. I know my company has frozen travel until end of April except for a few of us working on a merger integration, and we aren't small potatoes.

Sounds like a great opportunity to stretch out.

I'm in PE on the long haul and it's the only class nearly full. And, it's a BA flight, so no luck on op-up to business for EXP, unfortunately.

update from today...my partner also exp and expert flyer user got an alert that a seat was available today. Grabbed it, already reticketed and meal chosen. Also got an alert for a purchased ticket bought a couple if months ago and was able to upgrade our daughter with a SWU on a pvg to lax flight next month..shes gold and on a separate pnr from the two if us so we thought upgrade availability 7 weeks out was great.

It can happen.... Flying BA WTP (BA version of PE) I received an op-up for LHR-MIA with only AA PLAT status a few years ago. Though this has only happened once and never since I have been EXP.

+1. Happened to me too. I was boarding with PE BP handed over to gate agent. Reader kicked it out. She handed it over to another agent. He processed it and I was UG to J. Was on SFO-LHR. Flight was over sold!

I live in PB, and I do this routing PBI-DFW-PBI about 10x per year in each direction. The evening flights often sell out in First. The earlier flights (there are currently three per day, but out-of-season this is reduced to twice daily service) are easier. However, this is by no means a guaranteed upgrade. As EXP flying Thursdays and Sundays, I bat about 50% on this route (which is much lower than my typical 80%+).

Your better bet out of PBI is to CLT. The load tends to be more kettle-ish and less paid F. PBI to ORD afternoon or evening flights are the most difficult -- usually sell out in F, often weeks ahead of time. I call AA1022 the fur-coat-flight, as I have witnessed FAs struggling with four or even six full-length minks and sables. It's old school. Lots of drinking and "island" chatter.

All of these statistics change once May rolls around -- PBI becomes an easy upgrade during the summer months, from May until October.

Amazing how fast this BA DEN-LHR flight has filled since yesterday. WTP (PE) is now full except for 4 blocked seats (one next to me blocked as I'm Oneworld Emerald, I presume), WT (economy) now from around 35% yesterday to nearly 75% today, but CW (business) still sitting with 22 open seats - including 4 blocked in the UD of the 747.

Let's hope tomorrow brings some surprises as I've flown Club World on BA before, but only because my company required business for the long haul flights (back then, now we have to be VP or higher). Not been upgraded on a BA flight yet without paying the $800 fee I once paid coming back from LHR to the US last year.

Figured out why ExpertFlyer showed only 30% full on the BA218 flight to LHR from DEN the other day. BA doesn't let everyone choose their seats until after they've done online check in. This morning the plane is nearly 100% full except for a handful of blocked seats (WTP totally full, 2 blocked, economy 90% full, maybe 15 blocked, but club world still has nearly 20 seats open - a few blocked and the rest open).

Hoping I arrive later today to find the staff feeling generous to Emeralds...

Yes, as was specifically mentioned to you in post #30 above... :)

Missed that. Still getting used to the thread notifications on this forum. Thanks!

​​​​​​​I was Plat last year and they bumped both me and my wife (Gold) up from PE to J on BA from ORD-LHR on Christmas Eve last year. I think they were bumping Y up to PE and PE up to J. I was about to pay for the one way upgrade too because it was a reasonable $800ish and I wanted to spoil ourselves for the holidays. Imagine my surprise when he looked at me all confused and said sir you're already in business!