I would call the EXP desk to confirm and offer the CC info.... wouldn't wait until check in........

My magic black box.

0%, you might want to double-check your reservation.

Slightly off-topic, but I would almost never use a SWU on a W fare, since a miles upgrade on a W fare is just 15000 niles and no copay. I prefer to use my SWU's to avoid copays.

AA Lax-Hkg 193
 

I suspect there's a chance the poster was using "W" to refer to the cabin, not the booking class, but yes, if booked in actual W, I'd go for the mileage upgrade, unless of course I had an expiring SWU with no other need for it.

DUH... it was a P fare. Not sure why I spaced that earlier. Upgrade would have been 25,000 miles plus $350.

Flying LAX-HKG this weekend (AA 193, 1/19/19, 11:50 pm). I am using my EXP cousin's SWU, but it has yet to clear. There are currently 14 open seats in Business. Been checking Expert Flyer for weeks, but C space has never opened up. Below are the fare buckets as of this morning on Expert Flyer. What do these say about the chances of clearing, both before and after arriving at the airport? I am Platinum myself, to the extent that matters. Thanks!

F0 A0 J7 R7 D7 I4 W1 P0 Y5 B0 H2 K1
M0 L0 G5 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

There's still a (small) chance for the upgrade to go through since Miles/co-pay and SWU's are at the top of the pecking order for processing upgrades. Good Luck!! I've had success upgrading for past two years on this flight as an EXP using SWU's. Closest call I've had for the upgrade to be processed was at 48 hrs. before departure.

So I logged in for my flight tomorrow (DFW-SFO) and noticed that I "lost" my paid F seat in the mini-cabin of the 788.

All of the seats in the replacement (788) aircraft are "occupied". Apparently this version of the 788 scheduled for tomorrow has PE seating. My reservations still indicated that I'm F and that my seat will be assigned at the airport. I'm just hopeful that AA doesn't send me to PE or Y because the upgrades they've handed out already stick over a paid F seat. But then again, maybe they've blocked all the seats as there's a chance that perhaps the aircraft may revert back to one that has the J-mini cabin.

Nonetheless, what do they do if there are more paid F seats sold than can be accommodated? I've not experienced them bumping upgrades. More likely I'm sent to Y and refunded $$ and given miles... Sucks!!

Follow-up
 

Appreciate all of the discussion and information:

Although my seats were showing as upgraded and the ticket was showing as ticketed, the date of the ticketing was the original purchase date. So I bit the bullet and asked about this reservation when I was calling in about something else earlier today. The CSR could see that the miles deduction and co-payment had not gone through. She said that this would not have ended well, and pushed the deduction and payment through the system. My seat arrangements held, and I got an e-mail notification (receipt). My trip now shows the ticketing date as today (not November when original PE seats were purchased.

Moral? As advised above, call at some point if the payments don't go through, even if a quick glance shows "ticketed" and the seats you want seem to have been given to you. Is it possible that if I had not called in, that I could have checked-in on-line, shown up at the airport and flown, being less poor by 45,000 miles (10% credit card discount!) and $700? Possibly, but the thought of not getting the upgrade and maybe even getting dumped further in the back on a trip with spouse means that I won't be the DP for that one. (If it had been just me, might have taken the chance... :D). I did take the opportunity to move the $700 (2x$350) to the Chase RC Visa, since seat upgrades are one of the few legit things one can claim for the card's $300 annual travel credit. Takes the edge off disappointment of maybe having kicked back an airline-makes-error-in-your-favor freebie.

I would say your chances are slim to none. The reason being is that the flight is heavily sold in economy and most likely oversold in the back. In addition AA now undercuts all the competition fares on this route (albeit you get what you pay for). What I have noticed recently is that on this route as well as other high volume international routes is that AA is trying at all costs to maximize last minute revenue at the expense of upgrades. For example I have noticed deep discount economy and business fares now opening up with in less than a week. Couple that with new married segment rules that AA is trying to enforce across the board and it all equates to these ultra long haul Asia Pacific international upgrades becoming a thing of the past. Even worse, starting this month and what I suspect is due to the enforcement of married segments the opportunity for those to jump the wait list is back. I have seen C space open up for married segments (for example JFK-LAX-HKG) but not for the LAX-HKG and hence if you are only wait listed for LAX-HKG because you are not originating in New York you can be skipped. On the flip side I have had this work in my favor also by having a rep manually force an upgrade if the C inventory is showing. I escalated this new issue with in American and it's definitely unintended but AA has no expectation as to when it will be fixed. Kind of like a few years back when 500 mile advance processing of upgrades was broken for months.

I assume you mean the date? I accidentally typed 2/22/19. My flight is 1/22/19. Any insight into upgrade possibilities or still 0?

Deleted

All upgrades on this route are SWU or co-pay + miles, so your status and EQD spend are the primary factors in the upgrade list