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-   -   ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1949552-archive-chances-upgrade-clearing-availability-2019-master-thread.html)

mikhailm Feb 4, 2019 5:36 pm


Originally Posted by mikhailm (Post 30714764)
Cleared a SWU on AA128 PVG-DFW for Monday Feb 4 about T-6 days. EXP, low EQD.

AA128 went out with empty seats IIRC. They had the attached flyers posted at checkin counters.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...1d35f13e0.jpeg

econometrics Feb 4, 2019 6:14 pm

LOL, that's the actual poster? Showing the NGBC? Wow.

econometrics Feb 4, 2019 6:16 pm


Originally Posted by chitink (Post 30738742)
Odds of clearing NRT out of ORD? Do those usually clear or what is the experience for that.

It really all depends on the day and season. You'll be on a 788 with 28 biz seats at most, but possibly only 20. So it's getting harder to predict the odds as the 788 fleet biz cabin is reduced. Currently 6 of the 20 788's either have 20J or are in the process of it at Paine Field in Seattle.

mikhailm Feb 4, 2019 8:45 pm


Originally Posted by econometrics (Post 30739900)
LOL, that's the actual poster? Showing the NGBC? Wow.

That’s the one. Printed on A4.

BOSishome Feb 4, 2019 8:51 pm

I posted here about upgrades ex-PBI so I figured I’d report back...

PLT, moderate EQD (though just had an expensive SGN trip drop off my “rolling”)... 11/14 at the gate, nobody cleared.

dfs24 Feb 5, 2019 9:34 am

I have the option of going JFK-PHX-SLC or JFK-DFW-SLC, on a Sunday. Which do you reckon has a better shot for upgrades? PP with around 10K rolling. I reckon PHX is the better option as DFW is likely have tons of EXP?

JJeffrey Feb 5, 2019 9:41 am


Originally Posted by dfs24 (Post 30742013)
I have the option of going JFK-PHX-SLC or JFK-DFW-SLC, on a Sunday. Which do you reckon has a better shot for upgrades? PP with around 10K rolling. I reckon PHX is the better option as DFW is likely have tons of EXP?

I would tend to agree, however what do the loads look like, and is this a Sunday morning or afternoon? If one option is noticeably more full up front than another then I would probably shy away from that.

dfs24 Feb 5, 2019 9:48 am


Originally Posted by JJeffrey (Post 30742048)
I would tend to agree, however what do the loads look like, and is this a Sunday morning or afternoon? If one option is noticeably more full up front than another then I would probably shy away from that.

Well it's Sun morning, between 9am-11am-ish depending on the route.

chitink Feb 5, 2019 11:53 am

Incorrect info
 

Originally Posted by Clay Clayton (Post 30703516)
I am sure you regular AA flyers are hating all of us promo gold folks but hopefully still willing to provide some advice.

Three of us are flying from RDU to MIA to SJU on 3/28/19 to catch a cruise. Our return will be from FCO to PHL and then to RDU on 4/19/19. The flights were ticketed by the cruise line and I presume are in the lowest category possible. These are ticketed on two reservations, mine and a separate one for my hubby and his mom. He and I are both promo gold until end of May and therefore have requested upgrades on the domestic flights using the ten 500 mile upgrade certs we each received. We have also requested upgrades on the FCO/PHL segment using 25K miles plus $350. Currently we have seat assignments on all segments in preferred economy (free) seats except I have purchased MCE for me on the long haul. So now my questions:

1. When I spoke with the AA rep to determine if our tickets were even eligible for the upgrades, she suggested checking on moving to MCE seats on the domestic legs prior to checkin - the presumption being that those higher on the food chain who get those seats for free now, might get upgraded to First and the MCE seats might become available for us to book at no charge. Recommendations on how long before our flight I should start checking for that would be appreciated.

2. If we get very (very) lucky and get all the domestic flights upgraded to First, I will end up using 5 of my certificates but hubby will be one short of enough to upgrade both he and his Mom. Is there a way AA would let me use one of mine to upgrade her? Should I try to change her reservation from being linked with his to being linked with mine after we finish the outbound legs? I presume AA won't let you do this after travel has started but thought you might have some suggestions. If not, does he have to buy the additional certificate prior to check in or will it give him the opportunity to do that once it is confirmed there is even a seat available?

3. If we again get lucky and our requested upgrade to Business goes through, I understand I will be refunded the cost of my MCE seat already purchased. Is this automatic or will I need to do anything to get it?

4. What am I forgetting to ask? Any recommendations on how to increase our chances for any or all of these upgrades will be most appreciated!

TIA,
Clay

MCE seats have no better chance of clearing than regular economy. They go using the same upgrade priority as economy seats.

You cant' transfer the 500 mile stickers, you will need to buy another one before you are added to the waitlist. You won't be upgraded without it.

I doubt they would automatically refund you the MCE fee charge if you were upgraded, I have heard of those refunds being declined. But I haven't done it so I can't speak for myself.

Read the wiki at the top to learn how upgrade priority works. Basically Gold rarely ever clears, if you read through these posts, they are mostly EXP who do not even get upgraded. It never hurts to try but don't get too excited about it.

GetSetJetSet Feb 5, 2019 3:30 pm

EXP, didn't clear LGA-PBI or PBI-LGA in late Jan. I am flying EWR-ORD-MSY on Friday morning and STILL haven't processed the upgrade (even though we're well within 100 hours and C = 4 on the first leg. Both cabins are pretty wide open). Already used all 4 SWU 2x on Y->J JFK-CDG-JFK over the summer and 2x on HKG-DFW, LAX-HKG J->F. Also use miles + copay to confirm Y->J on JFK-SFO-JFK

Zacnlinc Feb 5, 2019 6:09 pm


Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet (Post 30743448)
... (snipped)

Already used all 4 SWU 2x on Y->J JFK-CDG-JFK over the summer and 2x on HKG-DFW, LAX-HKG J->F. Also use miles + copay to confirm Y->J on JFK-SFO-JFK


Dang!! And it's only Feb. 5th!! Nice job!!!

Zacnlinc Feb 5, 2019 6:24 pm


Originally Posted by FleyeSkyHigh (Post 30731567)
... (snipped)

In nearly all six of my LAX to or from HKG flights this year the flights were all J7 and open seat map until 5-7 days prior to flight and then J goes down to a few or zero and seat map fills up at T-48. In all the days I have missed it (I am EXP with around 25K last 12-month EQD) I have seen maybe one or two clear on the airport and the upgrade list at 20-30 strong.

In fact, I just switch last week to the HKG-DFW and DFW-HKG flights and in my limited observation AA125/AA126 are now easier to clear that HKG-LAX.

Again, not to sure exactly why but all fingers point to it having something to do with code-sharing or cross selling or competitive pricing to CX.


Wow!! Six times this year to HKG and it's just now the sixth week of 2019!! You Go!! And to think I am happy to be there every 4-6 weeks for the past 18 months is wonderful for me.

Well, I am hopeful that I'm able to continue my streak of success with SWU upgrades on the LAX-HKG-LAX runs I have planned for the next three months at least. Then maybe, I too will switch over to the (SFO) - DFW-HKG-DFW - (SFO) runs. Often though, the best pricing is on the versions that require a sleepover in DFW of 10+ hrs. Often I've found that if I opt for it, there is C space available on the entire route. Hmmmm....

FleyeSkyHigh Feb 5, 2019 9:54 pm


Originally Posted by Zacnlinc (Post 30743992)
Wow!! Six times this year to HKG and it's just now the sixth week of 2019!! You Go!! And to think I am happy to be there every 4-6 weeks for the past 18 months is wonderful for me..

Six times "LAX to 'or' from HKG" this year....notice the or...maybe it should have been better said only three round trips via LAX and one R/T via DFW! In any event 0/6 via LAX and 2/2 via DFW. Last year it was opposite.

worldiswide Feb 5, 2019 10:28 pm

3 Traveling tomorrow Ord lax hkg. We bought J about 3 months ago and used business extra to upgrade to f. Daughter is gold was on separate pnr uograded on the lax to hkg today but not ord to lax. She was also upgraded pvg to lax later in the month about 30 days ago.

ermeg Feb 5, 2019 11:30 pm

EXP, looking to book a flight LAX>DFW>FCO... any experience in chances of a SWU clearing? Other options include JFK, ORD, CLT, and PHL-- however, I would prefer JFK/ORD as they have the updated Boeings. It's a mid-week (Wednesday) flight at 7am in late July, so I'm hoping I have pretty good odds!

Also wondering about a return from LHR>LAX on a Monday (Aug) in the am as well... I have feeling that one might be a bit harder to clear :(


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