nrr

Follow-up (I guessed correctly):
6/10 JFK-LAS 7:55 AM, upg at T-45
6/13 LAS-JFK 10:25 PM, upg at T-100

apeortdz

AA should just post it on the board like this:
Upgrade list:
1. SMI J ($16,753 EQD)
2. ROB H ($13,643 EQD)
3. CLI M ($12,998 EQD)
4. WHI A ($12,210 EQD)

Catbert10

I think I disagree with this somewhat. The seat map gave you an educated guess as to the number of elite bookings, especially if you were booking early enough that the plane hadn't begun to really fill up. I'm not saying the old system was completely transparent, but it was more transparent than the current system.

Robertsonland

It should be more like this:
1. SMI J (A heck of a lot more than you)
2. ROB H (A whole lot more than you)
3. CLI M (A lot more than you)
4. WHI A (More than you)
5. You (Why can't you be more like SMI J?)

TravelLawyer

In the past, you'd have to "unlink" the PNR's to avoid the problem of the system going past you if you are a couple vs a single. Is there no way to do that and still keep the original status borrowed/inherited for the companion anymore?

swm61230

1. ME (More then below)
2. SMI J (A heck of a lot more than you)
3. ROB H (A whole lot more than you)
4. CLI M (A lot more than you)
5. WHI A (More than you)
6. You (Why bother?)

SpammersAreScum

Of course, to be of any use the list would also have to include status.

Stripe

In the old system I think an agent was able to see when someone booked. I doubt it would let a regular agent see EQDs.

I agree. The old system wasn't more transparent but in some limited cases you could infer your spot on this list when you booked. EXPs were the highest priority and if you saw an empty MCE seat map you could be pretty well assured you would be at the top of the list.

HLCinCOU

I've now taken 16 flights since this went into effect, so I have some valuable data points and some (perhaps less valuable) thoughts.

First, the data.

6321 EQD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-12-31
6119 EQD YTD as of 2017-05-20
7904 EQD YTD as of today

Flights:
2017-05-22 COU-ORD: No J (E145)
2017-05-22 ORD-MKE: No J (CRJ2)
2017-05-23 ORD-COU: T-8
2017-05-27 STL-PHL: No J (CRJ2)
2017-05-27 PHL-MCO: T-100
2017-05-30 MCO-CLT: T-24
2017-05-30 CLT-CLE: T-8
2017-05-31 CLE-ORD: T-8
2017-06-03 ORD-STL: T-48*
2017-06-05 COU-DFW: T-100
2017-06-05 DFW-IAH: T-72**
2017-06-06 IAH-DFW: T-8
2017-06-06 DFW-ORD: T-100
2017-06-07 ORD-OKC: T-4
2017-06-10 OKC-DFW: T-4
2017-06-10 DFW-COU: T-4

*I did SDFC on this one and they confirmed me in J immediately. Time shown is for the original flight.
**My previous flight was delayed, so I missed the connection and took the next flight, and did not get upgraded as they had already cleared everybody. Time shown is for original flight.

Now, a few thoughts:

1. As you can see, I have a 100% success rate (not counting that DFW-IAH flight change) since the change.

2. My EQD since August isn't crazy: about 12k on May 20, about 14k today. Normalized to a whole year that's something like 16k, which I would not have figured to be very high in the pecking order.

3. Before the change I got upgraded more often than not, but certainly I've never had a run like this before. Maybe it was like 60-70%, something like that.

4. I do tend to buy tickets on very short notice. Most of the ones above that didn't clear early were purchased within a day of flight time.

5. I find myself on a lot of regional jets. That's a double-edged sword; the CRJ-200 and Embraer ERJ145 don't have J at all, but flying on the CRJ700/900 it seems like I'm usually at the top of the list and nobody's buying J since the flights are short.

6. Before just now, I hadn't considered that this is sort of like moving up the "EQD status cull" if you're an EXP. That is, when the EQD requirements were announced the reaction was a tension between "this will make it harder for me to get status" vs. "this will increase the value of my status by reducing upgrade competition." Turns out that lessened competition is already here...if you're an EXP who's spending enough to be EXP next year. Of course if you're GLD or PLT you're still getting beat by low-EQD EXPs and will have to wait until next year for the reduced competition. And of course the other side of that coin is that those low-EQD EXPs are already feeling the sting.

7. Given my experience at an estimated 16k rolling EQD, I anticipate I was drastically underestimating how many EXPs won't make it back next year. Folks around here probably will make it work with partner premium tickets, AAVacations, consolidator fares and the like, but the general public isn't going to know and/or won't be fanatical enough to work the system that hard.

8. As many others have already noted, this change precisely fits AA's goals, and was definitely a smart move.

9. On balance I have to think this is a win for FTers in the long run. Sure, a bunch of you out there have low rolling EQD right now (since you weren't trying to work EQD from August to December) but as of 2017-08-01 if you're on target for requal it oughta be good. If you're right at 12k you'll be at the bottom of the EXP list...but there will be so many fewer EXPs on said list that it should be a net win.

Sorry for writing a book there...interested in everybody's thoughts.

SpammersAreScum

The first part of this is obviously true -- under either system Plats lose to ExPlats and PlatPros, period. But I'm missing the reasoning behind the second part; why would a Plat's competition be reduced next year? Are you predicting a decrease in the number of ExPlats and PlatPros? Or at least a reduction in their upgrade requests?

jcatman

Fantastic post, HLCinCOU.

Thank you for sharing your experience.

HLCinCOU

Yes, I'm predicting there will be fewer EXP next year. I thought that part was universally agreed...the new spend requirement must certainly cull the ranks at least a bit, right? My point in #7 above was that the magnitude of that reduction may be higher than previously anticipated (at least by me), based on my better-than-expected upgrade success since May 20.

HLCinCOU

One other note: you mentioned PlatPro there and I had totally ignored the impact of the new tier. I guess the question becomes whether there are more EXP dropping all the way to PLT (or leaving the program entirely, as we've seen lots of FTers doing or threatening) or more PLTs moving up to PlatPro.

In the absence of any data, I would expect both EQM and EQD earnings to follow a power law, in which case I'd guess more EXPs dropping than PLTs gaining. But that's taking a couple already-shaky assumptions pretty far, so it really is just a guess.

HLCinCOU

Oh yeah, thinking about it some more, interestingly I'm pretty sure that while the situation for PLTs is ambiguous as described above, the situation for GLD members should be an unequivocal improvement. Anybody moving PLT->Pro was already ahead of them, whereas we should expect a non-zero number of EXP/PLT dropping to GLD or out.

Antarius

This has been the interesting development. I am batting probably 15k EQD over the last year or so, due to a couple of international J trips to the Middle East. This year I have 105k EQM and 10,500 EQD.

Before the change, I was close to 100% on upgrades (lots of short flights and booked atleast a week in advance). Since the change. I am now 100% on upgrades and them clearing way in advance.

1. IAH-PHL - cleared at T-100
2. PHL-DFW-IAH - cleared at T-100
3. HOU-DFW-SFO - cleared at T-100
3a. DFW-SFO - cleared at gate. Flight above was cancelled due to WX and was rebooked for the later flight. Still cleared.
4. SFO-PHX-IAH - cleared at T-100
4 a. SFO-DFW-IAH - cleared at T-100 (I cancelled and rebooked the above for a later date)
5. HOU-DFW-SFO - HOU-DFW cleared at T-100. DFW-SFO cleared at ~T-60

Just some data points.Hope this helps.