Speculation: Future of AA at PHX / Phoenix Sky Harbor?
May 11, 2016, 9:59 am
#16
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 414
PHX enjoys about 2.25 times the domestic O&D of CLT, despite having a metro area population about 80% larger than CLT (Phoenix is a more popular destination than Charlotte).
The PHX hub is in relatively good shape because AA flies so few flights at PHX compared to CLT, as WN has about as many PHX flights as AA has mainline PHX flights. Further, PHX has a much smaller regional operation. All adds up to a smaller connecting ratio and higher O&D ratio than CLT. That's not too shabby.
Overall, I don't see a ton of shrinking on the horizon for the PHX hub.
The PHX hub is in relatively good shape because AA flies so few flights at PHX compared to CLT, as WN has about as many PHX flights as AA has mainline PHX flights. Further, PHX has a much smaller regional operation. All adds up to a smaller connecting ratio and higher O&D ratio than CLT. That's not too shabby.
Overall, I don't see a ton of shrinking on the horizon for the PHX hub.
Charlotte has the benefit off having high-value O&D- due mainly to Charlotte being the second largest financial center in the USA (think Bank of America and Wells Fargo). Charlotte has 7 F500 Companies compared to Phoenix's 5; the highest rated company in Charlotte was Bank of America at 23 whilst the highest Phoenix company is 108. Charlotte is among the fastest growing cities in the USA.
Outside of the metro area, in a 150km radius, Charlotte has an estimated catchment of 11,955,920 whilst Phoenix's is 5,135,661.
Charlotte isn't going anywhere, a new lease with AA and approval to build new gates. Good try though.
Last edited by JDiver; May 13, 2016 at 11:05 pm Reason: Redacted overly personalized bits
May 11, 2016, 10:14 am
#17
Join Date: Jul 2010
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AA carried over 22 million passengers at PHX in 2015 and had over 50% of the market share. Along with this, PHX is the 6th largest city in the US and their only competition is WN, who has just 60% the amount of daily departures at AA. LAX has more competition, and is more O&D focused.
AA might even want to consider expanding a little at PHX. Incentives were put in place to airlines who add intercontinental routes or increase frequency to cities such as Boston, Mexico City, and Toronto. Up to $1 million per route will be rewarded. Personally, I think a daily 788 flight to NRT would be a good idea, and a second PHX-MEX flight could do well.
AA might even want to consider expanding a little at PHX. Incentives were put in place to airlines who add intercontinental routes or increase frequency to cities such as Boston, Mexico City, and Toronto. Up to $1 million per route will be rewarded. Personally, I think a daily 788 flight to NRT would be a good idea, and a second PHX-MEX flight could do well.
May 11, 2016, 12:25 pm
#18
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Just for reference, this is a mostly terrible way to describe the passengers an airport might draw. I could say the same about Austin as the 11th largest city in the US and why don't we have NRT service? And, by the same token, why does Boston have so much international service when it is "only" 24th? Use metro area, and point out metro Phoenix's growth rates, which might be the real biggest reason the AA PHX hub isn't going anywhere.
<redacted>
Highly misleading. PHX has nearly that entire catchment to itself, as only the part that just catches the outermost suburbs of Tucson would go to another airport. There are no other airports with commercial service on a major carrier within a 150km radius of PHX. None. Only Phoenix-Mesa has commercial service at all and that's only Allegiant. And the only other airports in Arizona with scheduled commercial service at all are TUS, FLG (only to PHX), and YUM (only to PHX).
Within a 150km radius of Charlotte, on the edges of this circle are Asheville (has its own airport), Greensboro-High Point (has its own airport, and is equally as close to RDU as it is to CLT), Greenville-Spartanburg (has its own airport and is only a shade further from ATL than it is from CLT), and Columbia, SC (has its own airport). It's very conveniently drawn for an attempt to make CLT look better than PHX, but has very little basis in reality.
As noted, PHX isn't going anywhere. Maybe it won't become a massive intercontinental hub anytime soon, but AA won't be cutting back.
<redacted>
Within a 150km radius of Charlotte, on the edges of this circle are Asheville (has its own airport), Greensboro-High Point (has its own airport, and is equally as close to RDU as it is to CLT), Greenville-Spartanburg (has its own airport and is only a shade further from ATL than it is from CLT), and Columbia, SC (has its own airport). It's very conveniently drawn for an attempt to make CLT look better than PHX, but has very little basis in reality.
As noted, PHX isn't going anywhere. Maybe it won't become a massive intercontinental hub anytime soon, but AA won't be cutting back.
Last edited by JDiver; May 13, 2016 at 11:08 pm Reason: Redacted previously deleted post content and reply
May 11, 2016, 3:00 pm
#19
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,718
Birds of a feather: Passengers flock to Phoenix in March
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport set an air passenger record in March, breaking the mark set just a year ago. Sky Harbor saw a 1.5 percent increase in March, reaching 4.3 million passengers, making it the busiest month on record for the airport. (Phoenix Business Journal)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport set an air passenger record in March, breaking the mark set just a year ago. Sky Harbor saw a 1.5 percent increase in March, reaching 4.3 million passengers, making it the busiest month on record for the airport. (Phoenix Business Journal)
May 11, 2016, 4:00 pm
#20
Join Date: Sep 2012
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Birds of a feather: Passengers flock to Phoenix in March
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport set an air passenger record in March, breaking the mark set just a year ago. Sky Harbor saw a 1.5 percent increase in March, reaching 4.3 million passengers, making it the busiest month on record for the airport. (Phoenix Business Journal)
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport set an air passenger record in March, breaking the mark set just a year ago. Sky Harbor saw a 1.5 percent increase in March, reaching 4.3 million passengers, making it the busiest month on record for the airport. (Phoenix Business Journal)
May 11, 2016, 4:26 pm
#21
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As a PHX based business traveler - Feb-Apr are all rough with increased passenger numbers with Spring Break, Spring Training, etc. Not to mention key events that bring in people such as the occasional Super Bowl, NCAA Championship game (earlier in the year), Golf Tournament, etc.
May 11, 2016, 4:42 pm
#22
Join Date: May 2008
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AA is now operating 738 with pmAA metal/crews for PHX-SAN and PHX-ONT (and probably PHX-SNA) sections - about 40 fewer seats than the pmUS 321 that used to run here. So much for the PDB service.
PHX is great for frequency to the secondary SoCal markets and this shouldn't change. PHX is generally superior to DFW or LAX for connecting traffic - smaller MCT and more reliable.
PHX is great for frequency to the secondary SoCal markets and this shouldn't change. PHX is generally superior to DFW or LAX for connecting traffic - smaller MCT and more reliable.
May 11, 2016, 5:22 pm
#23
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I think it's quite possible that once the agreement sunsets, AA becomes more aggressive with seasonally adjusting service through PHX. Removing a mid-day flight bank, running some primarily O/D segments only Sun/Mon/Thu/Fri, moving the A321s around based on season, etc.
May 11, 2016, 5:42 pm
#24
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AA is now operating 738 with pmAA metal/crews for PHX-SAN and PHX-ONT (and probably PHX-SNA) sections - about 40 fewer seats than the pmUS 321 that used to run here. So much for the PDB service.
PHX is great for frequency to the secondary SoCal markets and this shouldn't change. PHX is generally superior to DFW or LAX for connecting traffic - smaller MCT and more reliable.
PHX is great for frequency to the secondary SoCal markets and this shouldn't change. PHX is generally superior to DFW or LAX for connecting traffic - smaller MCT and more reliable.
I had been upgraded to F; the FA's did PDB was a choice of water or OJ from a tray with the drinks pre-poured.
And I totally agree with the secondary Southern California airports. Even with a connection, it could indeed be faster to fly AUS-PHX-BUR, rather than AUS-LAX nonstop and drive to that part of town.
I lived in metro PHX for over 20 years. In that time, HP/US/and now AA service at PHX has fluctuated a little here/there. But overall, I really don't think there's been large changes.
The biggest changes have probably been redeye flights being added and removed.
After the HP-US merger, some Flyertalkers were awaiting doom and gloom for any eastern US destinations. Sure, some were indeed cut (PHX-BDL), but others definitely were not (PHX-BOS).
Basically, if the route makes money, and enough than putting the aircraft elsewhere, then chances are that routes will stay or be added.
May 11, 2016, 6:36 pm
#25
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I'm not surprised. But I could see them moving a few of the pmUS A321s over to DFW or ORD for the summers, especially on shorter high-volume routes where things like power are less important.
May 11, 2016, 6:55 pm
#26
Join Date: Oct 2007
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This is not a new topic here at FT and has been of the mega hub speculation thread as well.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...solidated.html
I am a bit leery to talk about PHX, but I have to make the PHX vs DFW connection choice all the time, and I agree that PHX's position in the AA system has quite a bit of influence due to many secondary cities along the Southwest region. That other namesake airline also have a pretty substantial operation at PHX too.
Here are some reasons PHX does better than DFW (opinion, of course):
-PHX is a more compact airport as you only have a few sections of the airport to traverse.
-PHX seems to allow better evening connections back to the Southwest region than DFW (when both are an option). I can leave about the same time from my midwest or east coast city and via PHX, I save about an hour or more in total travel time. The morning is a toss-up choice.
-PHX actually has life in the evenings while DFW concessions seem to be closed too early for many of the remaining evening West Coast flights.
-PHX gives an opportunity to get transcon-like flights with enhanced meal service (ice cream!) once you get past that snack basket flight, where almost everything via DFW is going to be the simpler full meal service or the plated snack only. This was especially notable after they removed a normal meal service after 8pm. It didn't make DFW flights more attractive. Some might think the focus on meals is way too excessive on this forum, but it seems like the only change that was revised with complaints. Complaining about the mileage program has not yielded anything close I think.
-Everybody likes an under 500 miles flight for a free upgrade. (I think Golds do well for that short PHX flight more often than they do going to DFW.) I think elites like min EQM too.
-PDBs are plentiful at PHX (except for those routes that LAA has taken over with the 737)
-I feel PHX has fewer days of total ops chaos due to weather than DFW, but I haven't tracked it.
There are some issues at PHX that are notable:
-The Airbus are aplenty at PHX. This is for obvious base crew reasons, but as noted AA has already adjusted capacity quickly in PHX and there have been many smaller planes (instead of A321 for example). This does allow US to run fuller flights and obtain higher fares from PHX than ever before. It does reduce F seats many times versus DFW.
-There are some of the regional carrier flights at PHX, but very little to DFW as it relates to the West Coast. Now, the reason for this is to allow an extra bank of flights where a full size plane would not be feasible. The regional flights though are least reliable and the carry-on situation reduces traveler efficiency.
-No AC showers, but my connection time probably wouldn't allow it where I have too much time for a DFW transit.
-No interesting overseas flights (but that is what LAX is for). Useful for maybe Mexico, but that is about it. It would be nice to see a non-LHR European option or anything that LAX AA has not already put in to create some variety.
-Except for the LAA flights that are at PHX, I am not going to get music nor video selection in or out of PHX in most cases domestically. I still enjoy entertainment that doesn't require me to use my own device battery.
I kind of feel that many LAA loyalists feel they need to use DFW versus PHX because PHX is a LUS location. Too bad for them. For awhile when both US and AA brands were present, PHX was often a cheaper flight option than DFW (and may have influenced opinions on PHX). You do have to make a decision of two more even distance/duration flights or the one shorter/one longer flight. I have gotten used to the latter obviously.
Oh and I think except for those super nice overseas or flagship flights (Asia/Europe/JFK), people are not choosing to go to LAX voluntarily. Getting in and out of LAX, the elite or VIP competition or just so-so aircraft choices (LAX-IAH blah, LAX-ATL blah, LAX-PHL blah). I won't even talk about the remote terminal (okay, I did). I think most people in the region are rather surprised about how much AA has grown domestically at LAX, but I will chalk that up to major corporations demand near LA and not some organic decision.
Rasheed
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...solidated.html
I am a bit leery to talk about PHX, but I have to make the PHX vs DFW connection choice all the time, and I agree that PHX's position in the AA system has quite a bit of influence due to many secondary cities along the Southwest region. That other namesake airline also have a pretty substantial operation at PHX too.
Here are some reasons PHX does better than DFW (opinion, of course):
-PHX is a more compact airport as you only have a few sections of the airport to traverse.
-PHX seems to allow better evening connections back to the Southwest region than DFW (when both are an option). I can leave about the same time from my midwest or east coast city and via PHX, I save about an hour or more in total travel time. The morning is a toss-up choice.
-PHX actually has life in the evenings while DFW concessions seem to be closed too early for many of the remaining evening West Coast flights.
-PHX gives an opportunity to get transcon-like flights with enhanced meal service (ice cream!) once you get past that snack basket flight, where almost everything via DFW is going to be the simpler full meal service or the plated snack only. This was especially notable after they removed a normal meal service after 8pm. It didn't make DFW flights more attractive. Some might think the focus on meals is way too excessive on this forum, but it seems like the only change that was revised with complaints. Complaining about the mileage program has not yielded anything close I think.
-Everybody likes an under 500 miles flight for a free upgrade. (I think Golds do well for that short PHX flight more often than they do going to DFW.) I think elites like min EQM too.
-PDBs are plentiful at PHX (except for those routes that LAA has taken over with the 737)
-I feel PHX has fewer days of total ops chaos due to weather than DFW, but I haven't tracked it.
There are some issues at PHX that are notable:
-The Airbus are aplenty at PHX. This is for obvious base crew reasons, but as noted AA has already adjusted capacity quickly in PHX and there have been many smaller planes (instead of A321 for example). This does allow US to run fuller flights and obtain higher fares from PHX than ever before. It does reduce F seats many times versus DFW.
-There are some of the regional carrier flights at PHX, but very little to DFW as it relates to the West Coast. Now, the reason for this is to allow an extra bank of flights where a full size plane would not be feasible. The regional flights though are least reliable and the carry-on situation reduces traveler efficiency.
-No AC showers, but my connection time probably wouldn't allow it where I have too much time for a DFW transit.
-No interesting overseas flights (but that is what LAX is for). Useful for maybe Mexico, but that is about it. It would be nice to see a non-LHR European option or anything that LAX AA has not already put in to create some variety.
-Except for the LAA flights that are at PHX, I am not going to get music nor video selection in or out of PHX in most cases domestically. I still enjoy entertainment that doesn't require me to use my own device battery.
I kind of feel that many LAA loyalists feel they need to use DFW versus PHX because PHX is a LUS location. Too bad for them. For awhile when both US and AA brands were present, PHX was often a cheaper flight option than DFW (and may have influenced opinions on PHX). You do have to make a decision of two more even distance/duration flights or the one shorter/one longer flight. I have gotten used to the latter obviously.
Oh and I think except for those super nice overseas or flagship flights (Asia/Europe/JFK), people are not choosing to go to LAX voluntarily. Getting in and out of LAX, the elite or VIP competition or just so-so aircraft choices (LAX-IAH blah, LAX-ATL blah, LAX-PHL blah). I won't even talk about the remote terminal (okay, I did). I think most people in the region are rather surprised about how much AA has grown domestically at LAX, but I will chalk that up to major corporations demand near LA and not some organic decision.
Rasheed
May 11, 2016, 9:54 pm
#27
Join Date: Nov 2014
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AA is now operating 738 with pmAA metal/crews for PHX-SAN and PHX-ONT (and probably PHX-SNA) sections - about 40 fewer seats than the pmUS 321 that used to run here. So much for the PDB service.
PHX is great for frequency to the secondary SoCal markets and this shouldn't change. PHX is generally superior to DFW or LAX for connecting traffic - smaller MCT and more reliable.
PHX is great for frequency to the secondary SoCal markets and this shouldn't change. PHX is generally superior to DFW or LAX for connecting traffic - smaller MCT and more reliable.
Coming from PDX, PHX is the only AA hub with good times to SJC/SMF. Plus, most consistent hub for me with on time flights/good service.
May 12, 2016, 2:50 am
#28
Join Date: Jul 2010
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May 12, 2016, 11:25 pm
#29
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