Speculation: Future of AA at PHX / Phoenix Sky Harbor?
 

I've seen a lot of talk on here about the future of AA at PHX. PHX is my hub and it keeps things fast for domestic travel. What do you think will happen to AA's presence there?

Some people note how busy it is and imply that AA is expanding and banking planes there. Others say that AA is cutting flights and will reduce its long-term presence.

What say you?

I take a balanced approach to this issue. It is likely that PHX will not become much larger, nor will it become drastically smaller. It will likely be "right-sized" with some changes in destinations served. AA recently invested in upgrading one of the Admiral's Clubs, which does mean there is some interest in PHX.

PHX is is a relatively low-cost, low delay airport to operate out of. Unless something drastic happens to change airline economics, I believe that PHX is here to stay (at more or less its current size). Some people think that the expansion at LAX is at the expense of PHX. I disagree because ultimately LAX is higher cost and space-constrained in the short to medium term.

EDITED TO ADD: In addition, PHX has great capabilities to "flex" during peak times. The flights are scheduled perfectly to be able to add 2 more banks late at night during peak times, using existing aircraft which would overnight at the spoke stations. AA seems to be using this capability just like US did.

I have to agree with you.

Same here, agree also.

I passed through PHX twice this past weekend. It looks like someone is making improvements to T4, not sure if it is AA or the city of Phoenix.
There are more stations with stools and tables with outlets/USB plugs.
They are also tearing up some of the carpet (the brown/black with the airplanes on it) that has been there for ~25 years, and putting in tiles.

All hubs will be right sized, PHX is no exception, there is some possible flights better served by DFW and LAX (think to East Coast, Canada, Alaska, Hawaii and LatAm). PHX will likely remain a large domestic hub, with a focus on connections to the West Coast whilst LAX focus on O&D.

It also has a solid amount of O/D traffic, perhaps with a higher ratio of leisure/business than some of the other hubs but still a solid amount of business traffic. PHX isn't going anywhere; even with the new TBIT preferred use gates, LAX can only expand so much. AA can easily run domestic connecting traffic through PHX as well, leaving LAX for higher yielding international connections (and the significant LAX O/D). PHX is also more convenient to transit (in terms of distance out of the way of the direct route) than LAX for a large number or destinations, most notably east coast-LAS/SFO/SAN.

Yes I see LAX more profitable O&D and PHX domestic connections. Somewhat like the relationship between PHL & JFK, albeit both PHL & JFK have International while PHX likely will only see certain Mexico, Canada and a few Central America.

It's somewhat closer to the relationship between MIA/CLT, although MIA makes much less sense geographically than CLT for many domestic connections, than LAX does geographically vis-a-vis PHX. AA also wants to continue to grow internationally out of LAX, since the local market can support a lot of service on its own, and most of the larger metro areas (NYC/BOS/MIA/DC/ORD/DFW/Houston/SFO/PHL) are well served by AA out of LAX to feed the vast majority of available connecting traffic.

I think that some of the flights flown by pmUS A321 may get downsized to a 319 or a CR9 because there's just enough former feed that is now able to go via Dallas, Chicago, or LAX. Some of the current CR9 markets in the Central time zone may go away if there isn't much O/D traffic, or they may go seasonal Nov-Mar when other routes elsewhere are trimmed back and there's a little more capacity for the snowbirds.

But I don't envision the drastic approach which befell CLE, MEM, or before that PIT.

All will likely be known sometime early next year after the DOJ merger agreement expires at the end of 2016. This of course applies to all hubs. IMO, AA will optimize all Hubs next year, to correct its current bloated situation. If done correctly, Closing/Downsizing a Hub is a relatively quick, albeit politically cumbersome, way of significantly reducing costs.

It's not just DOJ merger aggreement, though, it's also capacity limitations at LAX. They may not be able to practically move all of PHX's domestic-to-domestic connections to LAX, and for the West DFW may be too far. So it may have to wait at least for the giant terminal reshuffle planned for LAX (where Delta, which is currently next to AA, would move to the other side of the airport).

Also, it may have to wait for a continuation of the trend of replacing smaller RJs with somewhat bigger ones (which then makes it possible to slightly reduce frequency on cities served by RJs). Keep in mind that at LAX Rjs are at a remote terminal which is very slow to get to by an occasional bus. So until / unless LAX can handle RJs more smoothly (in terms of connecting between RJs and mainline planes), that also might keep PHX running since it integrates RJs with mainline planes much more smoothly.

PHX enjoys about 2.25 times the domestic O&D of CLT, despite having a metro area population about 80% larger than CLT (Phoenix is a more popular destination than Charlotte).

The PHX hub is in relatively good shape because AA flies so few flights at PHX compared to CLT, as WN has about as many PHX flights as AA has mainline PHX flights. Further, PHX has a much smaller regional operation. All adds up to a smaller connecting ratio and higher O&D ratio than CLT. That's not too shabby.

Overall, I don't see a ton of shrinking on the horizon for the PHX hub.

PHX handled about 21 million AA passengers last year. AA at LAX handled just under 13 million. Phoenix is the 5th largest city in the United States and only has one viable commercial aiprort. (Houston has IAH and HOU, for example). AA also has the majority market share at PHX. AA at PHX should not see much noticeable change IMO.

AA carried over 22 million passengers at PHX in 2015 and had over 50% of the market share. Along with this, PHX is the 6th largest city in the US and their only competition is WN, who has just 60% the amount of daily departures at AA. LAX has more competition, and is more O&D focused.

AA might even want to consider expanding a little at PHX. Incentives were put in place to airlines who add intercontinental routes or increase frequency to cities such as Boston, Mexico City, and Toronto. Up to $1 million per route will be rewarded. Personally, I think a daily 788 flight to NRT would be a good idea, and a second PHX-MEX flight could do well.

I would think the recent Club makeovers would imply that AA is planning on a serious presence at PHX continuing.