Some more data points:

ORD-MCI 10/16 (8pm flight): 4 elites upgraded at T-31 minutes. Fifth elite upgraded onboard at T-10, swimming upstream with luggage. Flight had five empty F seats for weeks.

The problem is not just the frustration for EXPs, it's also the boarding scrum that is compounded by this delay. How many F seats does AA realistically sell on a domestic mainline flight within four hours of departure?

Oh man I known that feeling. Swimming upstream is the worst "best" feeling on the plane.

On a side note, I cleared T-100ish for DEN-CLT tomorrow. I'm still waiting for JFK-CLT (shows 6/8 open seats on A319). My mom, on a separate reservation, which I requested she be on the list using my 500 mile stickers, still hasn't cleared, and two agents have assured me she is on the upgrade list. I thought we would clear at the same time or not clear at all, but it appears I was wrong. Either AA made a mistake somewhere, or only I (ex plat) got a T-100 and another temporary Ex plat (my mom, until T-24 or gate control) is still waiting.

You are missing the point. I'm not complaining that they somehow did not give me what they offered as a benefit of status (they did), but that the benefit as described is inflated and not what is really happening.

All the AApologists can complain that "Discount Dougie" ruined the airline (I disagree), but US was very good at hitting the promised upgrade windows with little variation.

When the actual practice is "T-4h or at the gate" then that should be the stated promise. Given what's been happening, they could advertise upgrades "at any time after your ticket is booked up until boarding, subject to availability" and by your logic that would be fine, even if all upgrades clear at the gate, as upgraders received what was promised.

Notice how "any time after booking up to boarding" and "as early as 72 hours in advance" have overlap but are not the same?

"T-72h or later" and "day of travel" have overlap but are not the same. The former is what is offered and the latter is the practice I have experienced.

Not to make excuses for AA, and having received many upgrades at the window, my guess is AA/US is still in their growing pains following the merger. There is a good chance a lot of in-fighting as to which way to take the program. I'm expecting the new AA to be reborn within the next two years.

most of my flights these day clear at T-4, and precisely 1 minute before the 4 hour marker. Shorter flights with no meals seem to clear earlier days before departure.....just my experience.

Just got off the phone with EXP desk and she said for the Brazil flights they've been clearing at the airport recently. Since Y is almost sold out, she said it is very unlikely they clear until the day of at the earliest. The price of J is ridiculous on these routes so its not an option for personal travel. Fortunately, this will be my last Brazil flight for quite a while as family is returning to the US. After qualifying for EXP for 2017, it will be tough to re-qualify for GLD for 2018, so sitting in Y for the r/t to GRU will get me excited to chase the lowest J fares to Europe vacation travel going forward.

My experience too. Lately I've be doing a lot SE travel so no meals but it seems like clock work that at T-4.01-T-4.05 there is the upgrade email, sometimes as I am working in the MIA E AC and enjoying a class of wine to get me through my work assignments.

It doesn't sound like growing pains at all to me; well possibly for AA to take on the way US did upgrades.

For US, you could only receive an auto-upgrade (UDU) if there was F availability in the O bucket. If it was available for an F award at the lowest level, then that was usually a good indicator it was available for auto-upgrade.
Many times on US (even as a CP) I wasn't upgraded until a few hours before the flight. Of course on flights where F would sell out, or there were several CP's above me in the queue, I wouldn't be upgraded at all (PHX-PHL was an example of this, where people bought Envoy for PHL-Europe and got F for the domestic segment).

As with several other aspects of the merger, it seems that the, "new AA," is simply using the, "old US," way of doing things. ;)

Yes, but they haven't updated all the marketing collateral to support what they are doing. We still see what AA has promoted for years. Once all is updated then we will have the "new" AA and our expectations will need to be adjusted.

I'm not sure why the confusion :confused:

They upgrade when there is space in the upgrade bucket. If they are holding space in F for $$, then that space isn't available for upgrades.

US never specified that they only upgraded into O inventory. Flyertalkers figured it out, and how to find it by using the US website.
If I remember correctly, US indicated that upgrades were on a, "space available basis," or something similar. If there isn't space for upgrades, then you don't get upgraded.

11 seats open for CHS-DCA on wednesday, and no upgrades processed yet...

Brazil flights using SWUs ( I presume) have nothing to do with the subject of this thread - which is complimentary/sticker upgrades, and their associated windows. SWUs don't have clearance windows...

Back on topic - I cleared an upgrade at >T-100 today for a flight on Friday night (DFW-DEN). I still don't really get this thread - in the last two weeks I've cleared domestic upgrades at ~100 hrs (3), 24 hrs (1), 4 hrs (1), at gate (1), not at all (1), and TBD (1).

No, my anecdotal data is not better than anyone else's. But I don't see a vast conspiracy to limit upgrades.

If there are cancellations due to weather or other issues, they can easily fill dozens of F seats on the subsequent flights.

My question was about sales. How many full F tickets or (slightly) discounted P tickets does AA typically sell in the four hours before a domestic departure? Also, AA doesn't hold back Y seats in case of irrops. I don't think that is the reason.

My concern about this particular flight was that a similar situation happened last time I was on it, a few Sundays ago. No X inventory until departure time, causing an EXP stampede at the gate. For (other) flights with meals, it disallows early meal choice. Also these late upgrades seem to cause more seat conflicts and swap requests.

I don't see the logic or business benefit to AA to wait past T-4 hours. By T-4, all potentially connecting international inbounds and many domestic inbounds would have already departed. I find it unlikely that, week after week, a half dozen Chicago O&D passengers need to get to KC in paid F on Sunday evening yet only find out after 4pm in time to hustle to O'Hare.

Unless AA is preparing to do kiosk upgrade upsells or something like Delta does with FCM, this delay in clearing EXPs into X makes no sense.

Understood that this is a minor gripe, but I'm trying to understand AA's logic here.

I'm fairly convinced it's just laziness/fear on the part of revenue management. Laziness in that it is easier to just block all upgrades except for the most obvious until the last minute, compared with developing clever algorithms that would let them manage it in a more sophisticated way. And fear of management wrath if there is even a hint that an F or J seat could have been sold but for a prior upgrade. The old AA viewed upgrades as an acceptable cost that could yield a return from increased goodwill and loyalty down the road, and were therefore will to err a little more on the side of earlier upgrades. The new AA views them entirely as an unacceptable cost that must be minimized by letting them go as late as possible.