Here's a data point from a recent CLT-LGA flight:

As of the EXP window opening, 7 of 16 seats occupied in F. One additional F seat on the A321 became occupied until T-4, after which only one seat remained available. Obviously no way of telling whether or not that one seat between T-100 and T-4 was an upgrade or a purchase, but it appears that 8 upgrades did clear at T-4.

However, at the gate, 33 listed on the upgrade waitlist- 1 ended up clearing. There were also two CK members at the gate, who ended up sitting in Y. I overheard the CK rep apologize to them that no seats up front were available- to which one of them said "that seems to be the norm nowadays- I'm getting used to it".

Sure seems that AA's strategy to push those who want F to buy F is working, at least on most routes I take. I've been buying F or J for the past two years, and as long as my job permits it, will continue to do so...sure would hate to have to rely on upgrades nowadays. Whether or not I will continue to keep buying F from AA though depends entirely on how much they continue to gut the Aadvantage program and on how aggressively they price F vs. other carriers...but those are topics for other threads.

Odd counter data point
 

As an EXP I just cleared into the very last available F seat on a long domestic flight departing 48 hours from now. The flight now shows as sold out in F and a fair amount of room in coach.

So somehow, somewhere, the AA upgrades gods do occasionally smile upon their flock.

So we did finally clear our SCL-DFW flight last night while I stood at the gate and asked to be cleared, about 20 minutes before boarding. My partner and I were the only two people on the upgrade list. Despite buy-up upgrades being offered, the flight went out with about 12 of 28 business class seats occupied.

What irks me is that this had nothing to do with trying to hold seats open for sale or even for buy-ups by coach passengers. What also irks me is that when AA puts these upgrades in airport control, often they will end up in the control of a very limited number of airport staff in foreign outposts. Needless to say these upgrades are the last thing they want to deal with.

So, you're EP, using SWU, & you were offered an upgrade for purchase? I'm confused. Was this because it was International? Would you not be on the upgrade list automatically? Also using SWU. Why would it be offered for purchase?

Just curious..its now an hour past the 72 hour platinum mark and no upgrade from PIT-CLT-SJU. Plenty of seats are still available on all legs. Does AA have an exact method as to when the upgrades "sweep". I keep refreshing it every 10 minutes to see if any cleared. Am I wasting my time or is it possible for an upgrade to clear any time from now until boarding?

You are wasting your time and it is possible for an upgrade to clear any time from now until boarding.

I'm in a similar situation. I am PLT and have a flight Friday evening FLL-CLT. First is wide open and upgrades haven't cleared yet.

Same experience as most of yours.

As an Ex.plat:

Mco-mia: cleared at boarding (Just like 7 others).

Mia-dfw: cleared at t20. At the gate about 8 other people clear.

Dfw-clt: cleared at T2.

CLT-MCO: cleared at T2, thanks to an equipment change from narrow to widebody.

So everything last minute. That's also the case for a waitlisted SWU (GRU - MIA). Plenty seats, still not cleared at T48.

That's very disturbing on a few levels. First, they are supposed to offer LFBUs only after all requested upgrades have cleared/will clear. Thus, the fact that you were offered an upgrade indicates that your SWU should have been/definitely will be processed, so there is no need for you to pay. However, the fact that they asked you to is very offensive and could make unsuspecting people pay. Also, what if they actually did offer LFBUs to others which caused your SWU to not clear? Again, going against what they have stated. I'd be interested in seeing if this occurs with others.

Wife and I cleared at T-36, so can't complete this experiment. Maybe on the way home.

To be factual about the actual policy, no-- only the latter, not the former and that's an important distinction.

That said, I have a feeling there might have been something wrong wth this member's listing on the list based on the check-in offer for $$-upgrade.

how do i get a purchase upgrade offer??
 

I'm an EX PLAT. For my last three flights I have started as #1, 2, 1 on upgrade list and I've not been upgraded. In two cases, I dropped to 4th. On my flight, when I asked the GA if I could pay to upgrade, she said that F was full. Yet once we boarded the plane, the person sitting next to me, 11D on A321 was given an upgrade. We were both EX PLAT's. So why did that happen? Why couldn't I pay at the gate??
I have not seen a T100 upgrade come thru in months. My new strategy when flying West to East is get the best coach seat I can get, then pay for F on the way back. Not bad, not good. This year has been a very challenging year for me to get complimentary upgrades.

paid upgrades are not offered if there are more people on upgrade list than available premium seats. agents cant force a LFBU upgrade

When you say "pay to upgrade" do you mean pay the fare difference between coach and first? If so, maybe the agent was too busy to reticket you and still get the flight out on time?

If, on the other hand, you mean a discounted load-based upgrade, that's not something that is offered at the gate for domestic flights. It can only be done online or at the kiosk.

online??
 

I have yet to ever receive an online offer to upgrade. I've read on the threads that its random as to who its offered to. And it seems to be aimed at 'non-status' passengers. I've also read on threads that you cannot call AA and ask for the offer. So how do you do it? I've also heard/read that the online offer is less than the fare difference between coach and first. So it appears its targeted to "just not me".Any thoughts on that?

What do you mean "pay at the gate"? Are you talking about a miles+copay upgrade? Probably not something that a GA wants to handle while trying to get a flight out on-time, but the EXP desk has been able to do it for me before.

Also, it's possible that F was full, and there was no A inventory (needed for miles+copay) available. Your seatmate was pulled into F when someone mis-connected or was a no-show. What was the flight?