Another day - another upgrade clearing at >T-100. DFW-ELP on an MD80 for Monday afternoon.

I continue to have a >90% domestic upgrade success rate, most clearing in advance of the flight.

Still not sure I understand this thread.

I take it these were op-ups? On AA metal? Since you can't use stickers for TATL upgrades...

Your experience is drastically different from mine.
Tuesday 10/4 CLT-IAH did not clear until t-4.
Thursday 10/6 IAH-CLT did not clear until t-24
Sunday 10/9 CLT-PHX still has not cleared (currently at T-60 hours)
Sunday 10/9 PHX-PDX still has not cleared (currently at T-66 hours)

Maybe it is the routes I am flying? Maybe AA doesn't like me? Who knows...

Today CLE - CLT A319 with 8 seats in F, Cleared at the window, two empty seats after boarding, one BFU and left with one seat empty in F. Y looked to be about 1/3 full. As usual, a lot depends on the route and day

More likely SWUs, - discussion of which still doesn't belong in this thread.

Sure it can be dependent on route, aircraft, time of day, day of week, how far in advance you booked the ticket (for the time being), etc...

The point is that a small collection of anecdotes doesn't make for conclusive evidence of a trend.

Update:
10/9 CLT-PHX cleared at T-26 hours
10/9 PHX-PDX cleared at T-32 hours
;)

Always happy to be upgraded, but...it is annoying when it occurs later than T-24 because you don't get a chance to select your preferred meal (which I always like to do).
And it seems my last few upgrades have occurred near flight time.
But, always happy to be upgraded!

I've had very few upgrades clear this year even though I'm Exec Plat with about 115k miles from 2015. I'm luckier getting upgrades just prior to boarding and often there are a lot of seats that are released then. Attached are screenshots from recent flights on 10/14 DEN-->ORD, 9 seats cleared just before boarding on MD80. Tonight, same thing with 9 seats (out of 11seats total) clearing on E190 PVD-->PHL.

My husband just cleared today as a PLT for a flight Wednesday afternoon DCA-MSP. Actually was requested after the 72 hour window when I asked him if he had requested it (not a frequent flyer) and cleared within 20 minutes.

As an EXP I can attest that my upgrade window has all but disappeared. 6 months ago, when upgraded, I would received a confirmed upgrade at the 100 hr window about 75% of the time. In the last 6 months the majority of my upgrades have come at the gate. I'm still getting upgraded about 90% of the time, it just come much later. My flight patterns have not changed.

More anecdotal data.

I can add some myself: of my two flights today one cleared at 100 hours, one at 4 hours.

A few people posting on an FT thread is not conclusive evidence of anything.

I imagine everyone's experience will be different. I suspect AA has determined which flights are the most profitable or highest demand and those are being held before letting upgrades clear. Maybe if we post the flights involved a pattern will surface.

I have no doubt AA has some of the top number crunchers in the world on staff and although they are in the travel industry, their top chore is to make a profit and drive a good return for their investors, not payout perks for their frequent flyers.

Plat on PHL-SJU yesterday morning. J7/D7/I7 all week on an A321, up until T-7 hours when I went to bed. I cared because my wife was on a J award on the same flight and I wanted to make sure we ended up together if I upgraded.

I awoke to a seat in J and nobody on the upgrade list. Went out with 3 seats empty, so they held back the grand total of 4 elites that were eligible for upgrade? There is absolutely no reason AA had to wait until T-4:01 to run the upgrade gnome on this flight.

I wouldn't really care that much if AA didn't promise us that T-72 hour upgrade window - even with the qualifier of "as early as 72 hours" I find that to be a false promise at this point.

But this is exactly what they gave you - an upgrade within 72 hours subject to availability. No more, no less.

The reality is the upgrade is promised sometime before the flight and then only when available. Unfortunately that doesn't play well in print so the marketing types were turned loose to make it sound exciting and these time frames were developed. It's like ads that say "free" with paid membership, gotta read between the lines.