I went through my emails in my trash bin and found 5 email with 4 of the last 5 flights clearing at T-4. Today's flight did the same and cleared at T-4.

For todays flight the F cabin had 10 seats open when I checked in at T-22. 3 hrs later around 11 am 6 seats were assigned. 6 hours later 2 more were assigned leaving 2 open. Like clockwork I got 1 of the seats at T-4.

No evidence but my gut feel tells me these seats are being snagged by OLCI offers. Good for the airline to increase revenue per flight. Can't say I blame them. I just wish they would be more transparent. Maybe they fear that the frequent flyer kettles can't "handle the truth".

Of course this is all speculation for this here forum. YMMV but the UG patterns have changed for my weekly route of the last 18 months. For 60+ RTS the 100hr UG window worked OK, meaning the UG was granted in the uppwr portion od the window and before check-in. For the last 5 weeks it has gone down to T-4. To be completely fair I have yet to miss the UG on a very soft elite route.

The point here is not the the UGS are not being granted but that the pattern at which they were granted for my parricular scenario has cnaged. 2 weeks is coincidence but 5 weeks in a row at T-4? You be the judge.

And yes I know... "If you want F then buy F".

The people who actually do have evidence say that your gut is completely wrong.

Also, you've said several times that you want AA to be "transparent," but what does that actually mean? Publishing their proprietary algorithm for determining when to clear upgrades?

Google "Transparent". That's what I mean.

Google "Transparent". That's what I mean.

Or simply... the fact we are talking about it does raise the suspicion that AA is not being completely transparent on whether there have been any changes applied. We can argue until the cows come home but my last 5 out of my 60+ flights on same route and days show that UGS that used to clear before checkin now clear at T-4 at between 4:22 am and 4:24 am. All 5 of them.

2 weeks in a row is coincidence. 5 weeks in a row that is a pattern.

Besides it is fun to speculate and get the defenders "en garde" :)

Which, again, is 100% consistent with the advertised terms of the program. But you're correct that an argument between someone who struggles to understand these terms, and others who do know what they mean, can go on indefinitely.

I'm afraid we are no dealing with the Semantic interpretation of a benefit as much as the sharia-like defense of the airline by the believers who see everything in black and white terms rather than the shades of gray which is what this thread is about.

Dare question AA and we become "infidels" to be mocked and persecuted. This forum is an echo chamber of 2 camps.

I'm only sharing the data from own personal experience with the data showing a change in the "pattern" of arrival for UG notifications over the last 18 months.

The 100hr window still works as the defenders of the faith efficiently state. Thay is not the question.

The issue is not whether it works but where inside that window does the UG work. Top? Middle? Bottom?

For 15 months it was consistently on the top/middle of the window and always before checkin. Last 5 has been at T-4 with all 5 emails stamped between 2:52 and 2:54.

Those are the data points I have. People are free to interpret them as they like. I do see these changes noticeably and wish for more transparency which in essence would kill this very same speculation.

Stick to your argument, not attacking other members.

Which, again, you haven't actually defined.

AA is under no obligation to upgrade you at T-100 or explain how they determine when to release seats. You paid for a seat in Y. AA is not obligated to upgrade you.

You guys keep implying he said "obligated" or "guaranteed", but I cant seem to find him using it anywhere. Care to point it out or edit your posts?

Here's some of my data points (note that for some connecting flights it was actually outside the window):

DNR = did not receive. N/A means E135/45 flight. Haven't flown in over a month but have a fair amount of activity coming up in the next two months. Would be curious if people wanted to talk about actual data points (I just used my "YOU'VE BEEN UPGRADED" emails to generate this data).

Upgraded times are in mountain. flight times are local, but were converted for finding the time delta of upgrade and pushback.

http://i.imgur.com/TcQJxju.png

Very interesting..thanks!^

I agree that this is terrible. Offhand, I can remember being explicitly told that they won't come on to the plane to move people at DCA, BWI, PIT.

I've also seen empty seats go out with long upgrade lists from DFW and SAT, as well as MCO (I will give them a pass on this one as we had to push back right then to depart before weather delayed us further)

Removed.... I'm out.

Cool. Very interesting. I took the liberty of graphing your data (I created a variable % of upgrade window remaining to account for your change in status in April). There does seem to be a noticeable difference between Jan-Apr and May-Jul of this year, which I would say is consistent with my own (less empirically recorded) experience.