Not only EXPs but also people who actually, you know, paid for a F seat. If AA is anticipating IRROPS of any sort, putting a hold on all upgrades is absolutely the right thing to do in my book. Maybe that means someone won't get the exact free F seat they want, but they should be happy to be in F in the first place in that situation.

It's an annoyance. Granted it's not a crisis or an emergency, but it's one more in a string of annoyances. Lack of announcements, rolling delays, increased mechanicals, hub banking and short connections, lack of proactive protection during IRROPS, etc., etc., etc. One more in a seemingly endless list of petty annoyances that add up to make travel way more stressful that it needs to be (or at least, used to be).

+1000; while there certainly are things to complain about regarding tightened upgrade windows, being concerned that you won't get an upgrade in case of IRROPs is a bit of a stretch.

My trip went pear shaped with weather in CLT on Monday night, but it gave me a few more data points.

7/11 BWI-CLT never cleared. Had an exit row and a short flight, so not a big deal.

7/12 CLT-PHX. Was number 5 on list, then dropped to number 8. 6 seats were available when booked the night before. To my surprise, as I was boarding, I was upgraded at the last second. I'm guessing 6 and 7 were a couple that did not to be upgraded unless they were together, so it fell to me. I didn't have any expectations on this one, so it was a nice bonus.

7/12 PHX-SLC. Number 2 on list for a CR7. Didn't clear.

7/13 SLC-PHX - Number 2 on list, despite specifically asking NOT to be put on the list as I was traveling with my stepson. Cleared at the gate to my surprise.

7/13 PHX-BWI - Was number 2 on the list. Was sitting at F1 prior to departure. I had myself removed from the list so I could sit with my stepson. Not sure if number 2 cleared. For those who flew UA in the past, #3 after me was SMI/J. Perhaps UA didn't want him on their planes anymore? :D

I heard an ExPlat griping about never being upgraded anymore on PHX-BWI. Indeed, upgrades are harder to come by these days. Given how AA's managing it now I'm finding it to be less of a benefit now compared to what is was. Not sure how UA's handling them these days.

It will be interesting to see how things change when upgrade percentage is tied to EQD spend.

Of course, that's if AA's IT can get it right. I don't have much faith in that.

It seems to be going to more of a US style of tie breaker. BWI-PHX and back was always one of the harder ones to upgrade. I never missed it as a CP back in the day, but I'd miss it fairly often as a PP.

My question will be is it the EQD within a specified tier then? It used to be that even a low EQM CP could beat a high EQM PP.

Yes, EQD within tier. Essentially EQD will play the role that timestamp currently plays.

Ok, so it'll be as I thought. A $0 EQD EXP taking their first flight of the year can trump 10K PPro.

In the real world, over thousands of flights per day, how often do you think that will really happen?

Not often, and I'm not complaining about it, but I've done it. Well, relied on my my previous rolling 12 month EQMs later in the year when I've taken my first flight. :D

Sure. Sort of like how, currently, someone who bought a $100 ticket a month ago trumps someone who paid $500 for the same flight yesterday.

On July 13th I bought an ORD-RDU ticket for the 9:45 PM flight at about 6 PM. When I booked it, it was F1A0. I requested an upgrade and was the only one on the list. I didn't clear. Due to IROPs it quickly moved to F2, then F3A2. I still didn't clear. I had to ask at the gate right before boarding for me to be cleared.

We went out with four empties.

I believe it's based on a 12 month window, and not just calendar year.

Yup. And using EQD as a factor will be added at some point in 2017, not right away, presumably because they won't have tracked EQD for long enough for the latter to be reasonable. Or, maybe just because they want more time to implement.

Another data point
 

LGA-ORD ~50 hours or so from now, F7 and 15/16 empty. No upgrade at the 72 hour window.

Still probably have a better chance though on this route as an AA Plat than a UA 1K :D