Speculation: What will the new AA do in the north-eastern US?
Jan 5, 2015, 8:56 pm
#16
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: PHL
Programs: AA
Posts: 343
Sadly, I don't think much is going to change as the consolidation occurs. Pure speculation on my part, as I wish they would expand, but where AA can profitably expand out of BOS is the challenge.
1. The trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes from Boston are already well served by oneWorld partners a la British, Iberia, JAL and Cathay. For Ireland, Aer Lingus has multiple flights. I also doubt that they would push for any other destinations in Europe given the ability to route customers through a oneWorld hub and competition already on the routes (e.g. DL and SkyTeam to AMS, FCO and CDG). Ditto for service to Germany.
2. The other routes which were flown by AA prior to B6 entering the market were the snow-bird flights to Florida, which have been gone for years (with the exception of MIA of course). The flights to Florida do well I would think, judging by the fares we pay and the full loads, but they'd be competing with B6 who has a ton of capacity and Delta who has limited non-stop service. I'm not certain they could make those flights work, even with Embraers.
Frankly, I'm surprised the BUF, SYR, ROC and MDT flights have lasted this long with US. For example, I've seen the Sunday night flight to MDT cancelled many times when waiting for my shuttle flight. I took the MDT flight a hand full of times last year and it was empty. The flights were on what I would assume to be 'peak travel' on Friday and Sunday night.
I'd love to see AA give some options to non-MIA Florida or other points South, but I don't think it's going to happen.
1. The trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes from Boston are already well served by oneWorld partners a la British, Iberia, JAL and Cathay. For Ireland, Aer Lingus has multiple flights. I also doubt that they would push for any other destinations in Europe given the ability to route customers through a oneWorld hub and competition already on the routes (e.g. DL and SkyTeam to AMS, FCO and CDG). Ditto for service to Germany.
2. The other routes which were flown by AA prior to B6 entering the market were the snow-bird flights to Florida, which have been gone for years (with the exception of MIA of course). The flights to Florida do well I would think, judging by the fares we pay and the full loads, but they'd be competing with B6 who has a ton of capacity and Delta who has limited non-stop service. I'm not certain they could make those flights work, even with Embraers.
Frankly, I'm surprised the BUF, SYR, ROC and MDT flights have lasted this long with US. For example, I've seen the Sunday night flight to MDT cancelled many times when waiting for my shuttle flight. I took the MDT flight a hand full of times last year and it was empty. The flights were on what I would assume to be 'peak travel' on Friday and Sunday night.
I'd love to see AA give some options to non-MIA Florida or other points South, but I don't think it's going to happen.
US has already cut it back some, however. It's scheduled to be flown 1x daily on Mondays/Wednesdays starting in April, as of now it's 2x daily on those days.
Jan 5, 2015, 11:05 pm
#18
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
I think BOS will continue to be a key focus city with a few routes getting cut and being replaced by routes where AA has key contracts or significant O/D traffic. Just like what they are doing at LGA on a smaller scale.
BOS-PIT is a route where AA has quite few contracts on both ends and a good number of O/D traffic.
BOS-PIT is a route where AA has quite few contracts on both ends and a good number of O/D traffic.
Jan 6, 2015, 6:24 am
#19
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: US CP; Starwood Platinum
Posts: 74
Why wouldn't he have done that sooner, though? Those flights weren't part of the AA package that US redeemed from the bankruptcy court, they are longstanding US flights.
Jan 6, 2015, 11:13 am
#20
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Before the joint venture, AA had about 16 daily LHR flights in peak season. Following the approval of the joint venture but before AA turned BOS over to BA, and before AA trimmed JFK-LHR to just three daily 77Ws, I recall AA flying as many as 19 daily peak season flights, presumably using some BA slots. I don't know where AA got the slot for the new second daily LAX-LHR flight - perhaps it's using a BA slot.
In any event, even if AA returns to the open market to buy available slots, they aren't all that expensive. CO paid more than $200 million, IIRC, for four daily LHR slots back in 2008 when Open Skies began. $31 million last year sounds like a bargain - much less than a new 737.
Yep - $209 million - a record price: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6a47274-e...#axzz3O4AhGRxN
Jan 6, 2015, 11:43 am
#21
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Maine
Programs: AA Plat, FI Silver, DL alumnus
Posts: 1,432
Folks up here still lament the loss of BEX flights between BGR-BOS, although I don't believe in a million years AA will resurrect them.
I'd love to see AA offer BGR-ORD for enhanced west/midwest connections (UA entered the market on a seasonal basis last summer).
I'd love to see AA offer BGR-ORD for enhanced west/midwest connections (UA entered the market on a seasonal basis last summer).
Jan 6, 2015, 12:11 pm
#22
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,955
I'd fly PWM-BOS-XXX if they'd let me. It's not a long drive, but just long enough that I don't like doing it.
Jan 6, 2015, 3:37 pm
#23
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Philadelphia
Programs: US CP, SPG Plat., HH Gold
Posts: 342
PHL is a good place to connect going west from BGR
Jan 6, 2015, 5:29 pm
#24
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: BOS (but will use MHT on occasion)
Programs: AAdvantage, United MileagePlus, TrueBlue, Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan (starting 2016)
Posts: 547
Jan 6, 2015, 7:37 pm
#25
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2000
Location: RDU
Programs: AA LT Gold, DL SM, HY Disc, Marriott LT Gold
Posts: 12,507
Many of those US Express flights have been around forever in some form or another. DL/BEX, then AA, then I think DL for some of them, then US. There must be enough of a combination of O/D plus premium pricing for nonstops/day trips for Parker to have kept them this long.
AA lost a lot of its capacity from NE/NY cities to ORD about a decade ago. ALB-ORD, for example, used to be 4x MD80 before 9/11, that was a route i flew at least 30x from 1999-2003. Then it got slashed to ERJs. Then it got cut completely.
Look at ORD to anything within 300 miles of CLT (excluding CLT itself). There's not a lot there - 19 flights a day total - 7xATL, 3xRDU, 3xTYS, 2xRIC, 2xCHO, 1xCHA, 1xLEX. Much of the smaller cities have their flights timed to join up with international feed. By comparison, ORD to a similar band coming out of PHL into NY/PA/NE beyond BOS/NYC is whopping 4xBDL, 3xSYR, and 2xMDT.
It would seem that 1x to ORD from MHT, ALB, PVD, PWM is feasible. But there are two questions which remain in my mind:
1. The feed to the smaller SE cities from ORD is often timed to hit the international connections. How likely is that to New England vs PHL and JFK?
2. If flying to Chicago is for better connections for traffic originating in the spoke and going to the west coast, you're probably looking at early morning westbound flights. Do you have gate space for a second pre-8-AM flight in the spokes?
AA lost a lot of its capacity from NE/NY cities to ORD about a decade ago. ALB-ORD, for example, used to be 4x MD80 before 9/11, that was a route i flew at least 30x from 1999-2003. Then it got slashed to ERJs. Then it got cut completely.
Look at ORD to anything within 300 miles of CLT (excluding CLT itself). There's not a lot there - 19 flights a day total - 7xATL, 3xRDU, 3xTYS, 2xRIC, 2xCHO, 1xCHA, 1xLEX. Much of the smaller cities have their flights timed to join up with international feed. By comparison, ORD to a similar band coming out of PHL into NY/PA/NE beyond BOS/NYC is whopping 4xBDL, 3xSYR, and 2xMDT.
It would seem that 1x to ORD from MHT, ALB, PVD, PWM is feasible. But there are two questions which remain in my mind:
1. The feed to the smaller SE cities from ORD is often timed to hit the international connections. How likely is that to New England vs PHL and JFK?
2. If flying to Chicago is for better connections for traffic originating in the spoke and going to the west coast, you're probably looking at early morning westbound flights. Do you have gate space for a second pre-8-AM flight in the spokes?
Jan 6, 2015, 8:40 pm
#26
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: BOS
Posts: 15,027
NOW, is the time to swoop in and take market share!
Jan 6, 2015, 10:11 pm
#27
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Cambridge, MA
Programs: AA Exec Plat MM, UA MM 1K, MR Titanium Lifetime
Posts: 153
With United now dividing AA and US in Terminal B, I think AA will most likely give up the AA side (what's left of it) and consolidate on the US side. If anything, they might just scale back in Boston.
Jan 6, 2015, 10:33 pm
#28
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: WAS
Posts: 3,012
Jan 6, 2015, 10:35 pm
#29
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: NYC LAX RDU
Programs: US-Plt;Concierge key; American AAirpass; Delta Silver;Starwood - Platinum; Amex Cent
Posts: 710
I know it's been said before, but I am surprised that RDU-BOS hasn't been announced. That is the one gaping hole I see in the combined carriers networks at both airports.
Jan 7, 2015, 6:28 am
#30
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Lehighton, PA, USA,HH Gold, US Plat
Posts: 467
Connecting the Dots
Once things settle down, based on Parker's prior comments on ORD, I would not be surprised to see him putting CRJ's on routes from smaller cities (Albany, Providence, ABE, etc) to ORD that currently only have UA flights to compete with UA. Maybe start with a single early morning flight with a late night return. With the lower cost of jet fuel, the CRJ's that they are being phase out could be used in the short term to build traffic that flows west that US and AA currently do get. These are cities that have a strong US base to build upon. Question would be is whether ORD could handle additional traffic.