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Speculation: What will the new AA do in the north-eastern US?

Speculation: What will the new AA do in the north-eastern US?

Old Jan 5, 2015, 8:09 am
  #1  
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Speculation: What will the new AA do in the north-eastern US?

The thread on SEA inspired me to start a similar thread on BOS.

Once US and AA complete their integration, they will have the largest market share in BOS, slightly ahead of JetBlue.

At one point pre-merger (when it acquired Business Express) AA had the largest market share in BOS, but cut way back over the past several years, ceding significant share to JetBlue.

Once the US/AA integration is complete, what will AA's strategy be in the northeastern US (by which I really mean BOS and connections to BOS, not the NYC airports or PHL)?

With the US merger, AA gains the shuttle flights to NYC and DCA and quasi-shuttle service to PHL, as well as some relatively short haul flights in the northeast (Syracuse, Rochester, Pittsburgh, etc.)

What should new AA's strategy be in the northeast? Should it maintain the status quo? Or eliminate short haul flights in favor of connecting through PHL? Or use the increased level of international service out of Logan to try to route connecting traffic internationally? Or ramp up point-to-point capacity to take back share from JetBlue? Or something else entirely...?
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 8:16 am
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I speculate that there will be no BOS-specific change in strategy.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 12:42 pm
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I've heard they plan on bringing BOS-SFO back and possibly BOS-STL. Besides that, I expect they'll eliminate the short-haul point-to-point flying eventually. With the growing JetBlue hub and Delta rumored to be increasing their BOS presence, I doubt AA wants to make a real play for the BOS market with so many other northeastern hubs.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 1:04 pm
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Originally Posted by Blumie
I speculate that there will be no BOS-specific change in strategy.
Wouldn't be so sure of that. AA, once the dust settles from the merger, might look at what DL is doing in SEA and figure "there's only so many top 15 cities in the USA with big O/D demand you can use to improve market share and build some hub operations on top, and everyone and their uncle fights over NYC and LAX, let's check out BOS".
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 1:26 pm
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US/AA has an interesting array of flights from BOS, not all are flown everyday. Currently US/AA flies from BOS to:
BUF
CUN
CLT
ORD
DFW
MDT
LAX
MIA
MBJ
JFK
LGA
CDG
PHL
PHX
PIT
PLS
PUJ
ROC
SYR
DCA
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 1:49 pm
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I could see AA re-entering the BOS-LHR market with its own metal once there are sufficient lie-flat planes in the fleet, which could be 772s or even pmUS A330s (which are all lie-flat now). In addition, perhaps BOS-DUB, a very heavy O&D market.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 2:37 pm
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There are a lot of northeast cities (medium to smaller) where AA (eagle) left years ago and US dominates. Therefore there is no JFK, ORD or DFW direct flights. Slots are tough at JFK and ORD so although I would like to see service there I doubt it will happen.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 4:20 pm
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I'm curious what the change could mean to PVD which is a much more desirable home base for me than BOS.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 4:44 pm
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
I could see AA re-entering the BOS-LHR market with its own metal once there are sufficient lie-flat planes in the fleet, which could be 772s or even pmUS A330s (which are all lie-flat now). In addition, perhaps BOS-DUB, a very heavy O&D market.
The last LHR slot AA bought cost $31 million.Are they still prepared to pay that sort of money under the new management?
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 5:23 pm
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Originally Posted by rapidex
The last LHR slot AA bought cost $31 million.Are they still prepared to pay that sort of money under the new management?
Well ... that is what new management paid a few months ago for that slot from Cyprus Airways that's now used for the second CLT-LHR:

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2014/06/...or-31-million/
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 5:49 pm
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I think the new AA will play its hand at BOS. They currently have the most flights (although not the most available seats) there. It's possible SFO comes back. And maybe service to CMH, IND, and/or STL. However, the 75Ls can reach all of the cities in Western Europe except for Italy. That gives AA the opportunity to have maybe 4 or 5 destinations served from BOS. And the O&D traffic as well as the connection possibilites can easily fill up a 75L.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 6:08 pm
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Sadly, I don't think much is going to change as the consolidation occurs. Pure speculation on my part, as I wish they would expand, but where AA can profitably expand out of BOS is the challenge.

1. The trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes from Boston are already well served by oneWorld partners a la British, Iberia, JAL and Cathay. For Ireland, Aer Lingus has multiple flights. I also doubt that they would push for any other destinations in Europe given the ability to route customers through a oneWorld hub and competition already on the routes (e.g. DL and SkyTeam to AMS, FCO and CDG). Ditto for service to Germany.

2. The other routes which were flown by AA prior to B6 entering the market were the snow-bird flights to Florida, which have been gone for years (with the exception of MIA of course). The flights to Florida do well I would think, judging by the fares we pay and the full loads, but they'd be competing with B6 who has a ton of capacity and Delta who has limited non-stop service. I'm not certain they could make those flights work, even with Embraers.

Frankly, I'm surprised the BUF, SYR, ROC and MDT flights have lasted this long with US. For example, I've seen the Sunday night flight to MDT cancelled many times when waiting for my shuttle flight. I took the MDT flight a hand full of times last year and it was empty. The flights were on what I would assume to be 'peak travel' on Friday and Sunday night.

I'd love to see AA give some options to non-MIA Florida or other points South, but I don't think it's going to happen.
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 6:11 pm
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Originally Posted by Sakonnetview
I'm curious what the change could mean to PVD which is a much more desirable home base for me than BOS.
Wouldn't mind seeing a MHT-MIA flight as well up north of BOS now that AA wouldn't have to open a station to do so.

Originally Posted by Fanjet
I think the new AA will play its hand at BOS. They currently have the most flights (although not the most available seats) there. It's possible SFO comes back. And maybe service to CMH, IND, and/or STL. However, the 75Ls can reach all of the cities in Western Europe except for Italy. That gives AA the opportunity to have maybe 4 or 5 destinations served from BOS. And the O&D traffic as well as the connection possibilites can easily fill up a 75L.
E175 BOS-ORF may be a possibility as well. No service to Hampton Roads metro area right now.

WN just added IND and has the upper hand in STL.
B6 just added CLE which could have been a possibility as well.

Would be great if AA took over BOS-MAD and did seasonal BCN, MAN, or DUB:
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 8:27 pm
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I doubt anything major changes about BOS - it doesn't make sense to me as potential hub given the fortress at PHL for mid-atlantic and northeast connections, CLT for the south/southeast, and JFK for the premium intl traffic.

Besides that, BOS is already competitive. Look at what UA and DL tried to do for two years on AS's BOS-SAN route. When I fly it later this month, it'll be the first time I paid more than $198 for it. Going to a focus city with the number of non-stop destinations as B6 probably doesn't make a ton of sense, but competing on some of those routes where they think they can sell some premium cabin space does.

I'd still love to see PWM get AA service to ORD, DFW or JFK, though!
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Old Jan 5, 2015, 8:37 pm
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If Doug repeats what he did with US Airways, focusing on hub flying, BOS will be the first sign of it - goodbye ROC, BUF, SYR, MDT, and the Caribbean. I wonder how profitable BOS-Caribbean flying is with the new airline's higher costs and jetBlue competing on the route, especially with B6 about to add more seats in their planes (more seats = lower costs).

BOS is not required to maintain any level of flying per the DOJ settlement, so cutting (what are likely) unprofitable legacy express routes and leisure routes to the Caribbean is not a difficult task.

BOS-CDG is the only one I truly wonder about - it is the only TATL flight AA flies that does not touch a real oneworld hub on either end (BOS is a US focus city at best), is seasonal against year-round Skyteam flights, and yet they are expanding the seasonality of it by 2.5 months in 2015.
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