lowfareair

It's not just new higher costs in CLT - it is new higher costs across the US network due to more expensive labor contracts (the only way DP was able to get the merger done in the first place). Additionally with Advantage Fares likely diminishing (as execs indicated in emails released by the DOJ), there will be lower connecting traffic as US gives up a competitive advantage.

ZRH was a former Star Alliance hub, not shocked that it is now seasonal from PHL. The others are possibly due to aircraft; the final 762s go out of service early February, and coincidentally the FCO and BCN seasonality does not begin until then. We will see in winter 15-16 what it really holds for them.

Additionally, CLT is going from 10 destinations to Europe in Summer 14 to 7 in summer 15; that does not bode well for them. PHL loses one seasonal destination to JFK (EDI), but GLA is only 40 miles away and that aircraft is being used for a new year-round daytime flight to LHR.

Why do I get the feeling that you don't realize that international also includes the 1,000 plus seats per day to Canada and the god-knows-how-many seats per day to Mexico and most of the Caribbean?

I'd venture that on average, the majority of the PHL traffic to Europe is connecting, however, I'd also venture that the %age of Europe O&D is fairly higher than the overall 25% that CLT has.


JFK does not matter all that much relative to PHL and CLT - it is mostly O&D. If AA transfers their int'l flights to JFK, they lose most of PHL's connection opportunities, plus most of the int'l PHL O&D as the few who travel out of PHL will go to JFK when EWR provides a similar option for much less of a traffic headache.

lowfareair

Close - PHL gained GRR, MEM, CRW, and LEX. Don't believe PHL gained SBN.

You are also correct, it has not (as of yet) lost IPT.

bridge29

My bad, it was FWA, not SBN. Didn't know about the others.

Global321

I think that is simply incorrect.

Not at all. I specifically stated that in a previous post. We agree... CLT is the AA Caribbean hub.

That is just a guess by you. I would be shocked if it was that high from PHL.

It is not a transfer. AA already has the Atlantic via JFK. PHL is a redundant hub.

Again, you have not cited the PHL O&D.... just an opinion (I do not know.) I cited all the references I had. It would be better to have the facts.

But we can just keep guessing as well.

Piedmont767

We are going from 10 destinations in Europe in S14 to 7 in S15, but all flights to Europe next year will be operated on A330s, representing a capacity increase to Europe this year over last year. The reason why 3 destinations were cut, with the exception of Manchester, is because there were Star Alliance hubs and relied on O&D and connecting passengers from the USA who destinations where Lisbon or Brussels. As for Manchester, the reason why this route was cut for 2015 is because a lot of cargo had to be turned away due to the fact that the 757 can not carry containerized cargo. According to both the US Airways and American Airlines station managers in Manchester p, the flight will be making a come back in 2016.

Regarding international O&D to Europe, it really depends on the destination. Flight to Germany and United Kingdom have high O&D traffic (especially Germany). Spain and France have fairly high O&D traffic. While flights to Italy and Ireland have lower O&D traffic.

eponymous_coward

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...#United_States

CLT: 2.3 M
DEN: 2.6 M
PDX: 2.3 M
SLC: 1.1 M

It is by no means clear that AA cannot maintain CLT as a hub, given that other airlines have chosen hubs in similarly sized or smaller cities. Given that MIA enplanement costs are sky-high, and CLT's aren't, it probably makes a lot of sense to use CLT as the interior connecting hub for the US SE, and MIA for O/D + the LatAm connecting hub.

cbn42

All of those are much smaller hubs than CLT. I believe DEN and LSC have about 300 daily flights, and PDX likely has less than that. CLT could probably sustain a hub of this size.

ubernostrum

CLT is, or was last I checked, the largest or one of the largest RJ farms in the country (as of end of Q1 2014, 340 daily RJ flights vs. 270 mainline). So if you're the one in charge of "right-sizing" CLT, are you going to cut RJs providing short-hop connectivity into the domestic network and wonder what happened to your only useful east-coast domestic hub, or are you going to slash mainline and hope that produces better results than Jeffy is getting over at UA?

Global321

Give the relatively low O&D (25%), population is somewhat irrelevant.

AA says they will boost total flights at CLT, not reduce. Now you can never truly believe airline execs, but, it is at least a directional vision.

lowfareair

And I know you are wrong. As mentioned by Piedmont767, they cut LIS, BRU, and MAN this coming summer.

HA! 1) You said "As for O&D, PHL has a lot of flights to Europe - roughly 15% of all USAA passenger traffic in PHL is international... However, I doubt most of these passengers are O&D." Clearly indicating that you neglected to think about Canada and the Caribbean/Mexico/CentAm (Adding CentAm as there is PHL-SJO service). 2) Why would I ever agree that CLT is the AA Caribbean hub? pmUS, yes, CLT had the most of the three hubs, but AA has far more Caribbean destinations from MIA than CLT. I'd post the list, but you can look through the timetables or the airport wikis to find out yourself.

It might be lower, I'm going by a guess from a terminal A agent a couple years ago.



JFK is good for O&D from NYC, but they will lose most PHL O&D (who in my opinion would use EWR nonstop or connect in Europe before flying out of JFK) as well as a large number of transfers there from cities not served by JFK. Could AA transfer more domestic flights to JFK? Sure, but then they are not only competing against B6/DL, but they have to fight off DL's competitive advantage from LGA, the more convenient domestic airport for most of NYC.

Global321

Two separate statements. Sorry if I was not clear. They are all international flights. 15% of all USAA passengers in PHL are international.

That is the assumption you are making... a large number of international O&D are coming from PHL.

JFK is American's NYC international gateway. That will not change.

IMHO - USAA International passengers connecting to international flights to Europe are better served by JFK, CLT, MIA than JFK/PHL, MIA. CLT is cheaper, better weather and a better fit geographically.

I think what this really comes down to... what is the international O&D from PHL?

cmd320

Umm, no. MIA is the AA Caribbean hub.

Not exactly. JFK still has slot restrictions that PHL does not. I could see lower rent flights to more leisure markets sticking around at PHL while filtering the more premium heavy flights through JFK.

CLT will be another LHR spoke, but I don't see it retaining much TATL other than what can be found at DFW or ORD.

Speedracer2

Very true but AA serves more European destinations from PHL than JFK, so I would argue that PHL is American's European gateway.

JFK is slot restricted, significantly more expensive than PHL so any connections north of DC is best served through PHL.

Global321

Good points.

cbn42

On the contrary, whenever airline execs go out of their way to reassure a community that their hub is safe, it's a pretty good indicator that it's not.