Parker: "To try to change the program (to revenue based) right now would be foolish."
#61
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Location: ORD/MDW
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If the FF program is build entirely around customers like you, and the other 98 or 99 percent are cheesed off, it is not good for the overall equilibrium of this or any airline. The mistake UA/Smisek have made is to focus all their love on GS types. Even UA 1Ks feel now they count for nothing and are flying Virgin America, etc. -- and UA has the guts to explicitly discourage a vast sub-1K customer cohort in a period of atrocious reliability and service levels.
Whenever I see an FTer who flies overseas in full-fare J once or twice a month gloating about how meet and right it is that most of the award-oxygen in the room end up in their private tank, I wonder how long they think their airline would last were all the screwed customers to migrate elsewhere or stay home.
I don't think it's certain at all. Just because DL and UA jump off a cliff doesn't mean AA has to...
AA can watch and see what happens in both programs. If both companies continue to be profitable, and probably more importantly, grow at AA's expense, then they can look at implementing it. AA can also market to both airlines' pax that fit into that donut hole and offer them something better. If that approach works, then AA would be foolish to change its program.
The lemming mentality is scary - both in airline management and in the FT mentality.
AA can watch and see what happens in both programs. If both companies continue to be profitable, and probably more importantly, grow at AA's expense, then they can look at implementing it. AA can also market to both airlines' pax that fit into that donut hole and offer them something better. If that approach works, then AA would be foolish to change its program.
The lemming mentality is scary - both in airline management and in the FT mentality.
It's also scary and sad that the FT of ten years ago was largely about sharing the wealth and showing others in the community how to get ahead; now, with points and miles programs in decline, it's more about a minority of super duper customers kicking the lower tiers off the rope ladder and down to the Greyhound depot.
Last edited by BearX220; Aug 7, 2014 at 3:33 pm
#62
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Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
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If AA sees premium cabin bookings slip early next year, it would be child's play to make sure the monthly trip to NRT yields 70,000-75,000 RDM. If that's all it takes to lure someone away from UA or DL, you can bet that AA will do just that.
It's possible that some of the big companies (where lots of employees spend lots of OPM flying long-haul flights in premium cabins) will revolt when they discover that UA and DL have incentivized their employees to buy full J instead of discount I or D so they can collect even more redeemable miles. It's not a certainty that DL or UA will succeed in their attempt to convince employees to waste their company's money.
#63
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It's possible that some of the big companies (where lots of employees spend lots of OPM flying long-haul flights in premium cabins) will revolt when they discover that UA and DL have incentivized their employees to buy full J instead of discount I or D so they can collect even more redeemable miles. It's not a certainty that DL or UA will succeed in their attempt to convince employees to waste their company's money.
#64
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But now you feel you deserve most of the rewards, and a lavish amount thereof, to the point where your overseas J/F tickets will effectively be BOGOs every time while a less spendy but still loyal customer will take years to amass enough chips for such a redemption, assuming he doesn't succumb to rationality and bug off to JetBlue.
UA's already done some of the "breakage" already in the form of devaluation; witness how much non-UA longhaul F is these days. DL's award chart seems to be similar, with half a mil+ for TATL J at super-peak times.
That being said, maybe airlines competing on the basis of what they actually give you in return for what you spend isn't so bad compared to "fly our horrible airline a lot and every so often you can fly some OTHER airline that gives you caviar and Dom", which is a lot of what the UA value proposition seems to be on FT.
Oh, and look at overseas. You're an LX customer who has FTL and saved up enough for LX F? Not for you, peasant. Senator+ only.
#65
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 23,070
You continue to beat this strawman to death. While higher fare pax are being rewarded more richly, it is absurd to say the the FF programs are built "entirely" around them. Only a small minority of low fare flyers will be cheesed off enough to actually change their flying habits. The majority of flyers do not obsess about getting the absolute maximum number of points like FT'ers. FT'ers have derided DL's program for ages. If the general public is as fixated on points as you suggest, how has DL continued to remain successful?
#66
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There's been a lot of this kind of discussion on the UA board and I think it's potentially a real problem for both the airlines and its customers. If I were running a company with a lot of travelers, the UA/DL model would lead to me yank decision-making and booking out of individual hands, period. Conflict of interest. You'll fly who's cheapest, and if that's Icelandair via KEF and you earn no miles at all, so be it.
#67
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: washington, dc, usa
Posts: 244
I think companies are losing perspective on what a frequent flyer program was meant to do: they are loyalty programs meant to get you to be loyal to their airline.
Take Hilton. At Gold you get breakfast and free internet (which is cheap for the hotel, but valuable to the consumer since it is always ridiculously overpriced). And every now and then, I'd get a room upgrade. Now they sell the room upgrade and I have the credit card giving me Gold status for $85. Before I HAD to stay at a Hilton, regardless of whether there were cheaper alternatives or more convenient options. I'd go out of my way to stay at Hilton Hotels. Now I don't sweat it. Still my preferred hotel, but if another hotel is more convenient or more than a couple dollars cheaper they get my business.
Take United. Same deal. They pretty much got rid of status upgrades. You want an upgrade you need to pay for it with points or money or a higher fare ticket - whatever. They'd sooner sell an upgrade to Ma and Pa Kettle rather than give it away to 1K. I am 1MM so have Gold for life, but I could just get the credit card. You get the basic benefits - early boarding, free bag check, etc... Again, I used to HAVE to fly United. I'd make up reasons to fly United. I'd pay whatever they charged and put up with awkward routings to fly United. But now there is no incentive to do so.
The "Doughnut Hole" theory is correct. I'm the "middle class" of flyers. I fly 100K a year, some high-end last minute travel, some well planned cheap travel. I've paid for business/first class, but not at rack rates. American makes money off my last minute business travel, and I just take up a seat on my vacation travel. Either way, they need me and a lot of people like me to fill up the planes. And I put up with awkward routings, pay whatever it takes to fly American, but in exchange want upgrades and to be treated special. Take that away, and I have no incentive to put all my travel on American.
Take Hilton. At Gold you get breakfast and free internet (which is cheap for the hotel, but valuable to the consumer since it is always ridiculously overpriced). And every now and then, I'd get a room upgrade. Now they sell the room upgrade and I have the credit card giving me Gold status for $85. Before I HAD to stay at a Hilton, regardless of whether there were cheaper alternatives or more convenient options. I'd go out of my way to stay at Hilton Hotels. Now I don't sweat it. Still my preferred hotel, but if another hotel is more convenient or more than a couple dollars cheaper they get my business.
Take United. Same deal. They pretty much got rid of status upgrades. You want an upgrade you need to pay for it with points or money or a higher fare ticket - whatever. They'd sooner sell an upgrade to Ma and Pa Kettle rather than give it away to 1K. I am 1MM so have Gold for life, but I could just get the credit card. You get the basic benefits - early boarding, free bag check, etc... Again, I used to HAVE to fly United. I'd make up reasons to fly United. I'd pay whatever they charged and put up with awkward routings to fly United. But now there is no incentive to do so.
The "Doughnut Hole" theory is correct. I'm the "middle class" of flyers. I fly 100K a year, some high-end last minute travel, some well planned cheap travel. I've paid for business/first class, but not at rack rates. American makes money off my last minute business travel, and I just take up a seat on my vacation travel. Either way, they need me and a lot of people like me to fill up the planes. And I put up with awkward routings, pay whatever it takes to fly American, but in exchange want upgrades and to be treated special. Take that away, and I have no incentive to put all my travel on American.
#68
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You continue to beat this strawman to death. While higher fare pax are being rewarded more richly, it is absurd to say the the FF programs are built "entirely" around them. Only a small minority of low fare flyers will be cheesed off enough to actually change their flying habits... If the general public is as fixated on points as you suggest, how has DL continued to remain successful?
I used to HAVE to fly United. I'd make up reasons to fly United. I'd pay whatever they charged and put up with awkward routings to fly United. But now there is no incentive to do so.
The "Doughnut Hole" theory is correct. I'm the "middle class" of flyers... they need me and a lot of people like me to fill up the planes. And I put up with awkward routings, pay whatever it takes to fly American, but in exchange want upgrades and to be treated special. Take that away, and I have no incentive to put all my travel on American.
The "Doughnut Hole" theory is correct. I'm the "middle class" of flyers... they need me and a lot of people like me to fill up the planes. And I put up with awkward routings, pay whatever it takes to fly American, but in exchange want upgrades and to be treated special. Take that away, and I have no incentive to put all my travel on American.
DL succeeds because in this shrunken, lower-choice environment of just three network megacarriers, a good product at a fair price outweighs a crappy FF program. UA probably won't succeed on the same basis for obvious product-quality reasons. When FF programs cease to exert influence (the rewards are elusive or out of reach, status tier privileges are duplicated by getting the credit card, etc.) service, price, and quality factors mean more. Where AA ends up on this scale is anyone's guess but if I were Doug Parker I would zig while the others zag.
As for me "beating this strawman to death" -- sure, my posts on FF strategy are consistent, and I think it's important to counter the myopic view that one or two percent of high-spending customers deserve the lion's share of loyalty rewards while everyone else is "fireable," and if you find this storyline tiresome (which is how I'm starting to feel about the "Works for me!" posts from super-duper elites) I would be pleased to have you use the "ignore" button on me.
#69
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: AA Plat, Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 425
There's been a lot of this kind of discussion on the UA board and I think it's potentially a real problem for both the airlines and its customers. If I were running a company with a lot of travelers, the UA/DL model would lead to me yank decision-making and booking out of individual hands, period. Conflict of interest. You'll fly who's cheapest, and if that's Icelandair via KEF and you earn no miles at all, so be it.
#70
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: washington, dc, usa
Posts: 244
What the airlines don't take into account is the cost of customer acquisition. "Fire" a doughnut hole customer and you have to replace something like 20 trips a year. That's the problem UA has and why PRASM is suffering. My $15k in business was replaced by 20 trips and $10k in kayakers - if they are lucky.
I was UA, now AA. But I am running out of places to run to. My next step will to fly whatever airline is cheapest, most convenient, or where I can "buy" a cheap upgrade. No loyalty.
I was UA, now AA. But I am running out of places to run to. My next step will to fly whatever airline is cheapest, most convenient, or where I can "buy" a cheap upgrade. No loyalty.
#71
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Natural tension. If it's October and I need another $5,000 of spend to requalify for 1K or CP or whatever, I am going to (A) claim to need to take more trips and (B) try to justify unnecessarily expensive fares. My boss, if he/she is smart, will take countermeasures. I will be upset and my boss will be perpetually suspicious, especially when I start lobbying not to take more trips as I find out I've been booked on Spirit.
#73
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Programs: UA 1K 1MMer & LT UC (when flying UA); Hyatt Credit Cardist; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold via UA 1K
Posts: 6,956
Natural tension. If it's October and I need another $5,000 of spend to requalify for 1K or CP or whatever, I am going to (A) claim to need to take more trips and (B) try to justify unnecessarily expensive fares. My boss, if he/she is smart, will take countermeasures. I will be upset and my boss will be perpetually suspicious, especially when I start lobbying not to take more trips as I find out I've been booked on Spirit.
#74
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Join Date: Jun 2001
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What makes you think companies aren't already doing this? Many, many companies use booking engines like Concur, with lots of rules in place and travel approval workflows that show what a employee booked and what other cheaper options are available. Even for people who fly international business class.
- bonus elite miles and/or redeemable miles on higher fares
- higher upgrade priority on higher fare classes
- instant upgrades on Y/B fares
- eligibility (on some carriers) to upgrade with miles or SWU on restricted fare classes
- richer rdm bonuses with higher fare classes/cabins on new route promos
Fare-based rdm changes the calculus very little, and, as you point out, many firms with big travel spending already have the tools in place to manage behaviors.
#75
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It's also scary and sad that the FT of ten years ago was largely about sharing the wealth and showing others in the community how to get ahead; now, with points and miles programs in decline, it's more about a minority of super duper customers kicking the lower tiers off the rope ladder and down to the Greyhound depot.