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ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)

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ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)

 
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Old Aug 15, 2010, 1:45 am
  #1171  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: SFO/OAK
Programs: AA EXP 3.4MM, BAEC, UAMP, Skyteam (<10k) HH Gold, IHG Plat, Hertz Gold, GE/TSA TT
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Originally Posted by GVA
The first flight of the day to ORD is hard to clear. LAX is extremely hard.

JFK and DFW depend on the day of travel really.
IMHO, generally, C upgrades to/from ORD are far more easy to get that the others, esp. at booking time. However, you are flying via ORD (risky).


Today I am flying LHR-RDU, upgrade cleared ~48hrs in advance ... AA173 has got to be the easiest TATL flight to upgrade by far!

Although LHR-LAX is more difficult, I have only once missed an upgrade on AA137 (just 2 weeks ago on a Monday) over the past 5 years. Thus my 100% upgrade record for 3 years running, has been ruined (sigh)
billgrates3 is offline  
Old Aug 15, 2010, 4:58 pm
  #1172  
 
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Originally Posted by bdemaria
You can get 4 LHR-JFK C upgrades right now on AA 107, 11/2 - its the evening flight, otherwise I'd have to say JFK in general - only b/c there are more flights.
Thanks, I have seen that on EF, but would prefer to get there on the same day. I can take the chance of waitlisting on the first JFK or ORD flight of the day, or take take the confirmed option of the RDU flight. Decisions decisions.

Is the first JFK flight generally busier or quieter than the others? Anyone know?
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 7:43 am
  #1173  
 
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Originally Posted by circusboy

Is the first JFK flight generally busier or quieter than the others? Anyone know?
I've heard anecdotally that the 2d flight to JFK is the most overbooked, but IM(limited)E the 1st one seems to fill pretty well.
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 7:49 am
  #1174  
 
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A little off point but posters on this thread obviously travel through LHR a bit. I booked OMA-FCO; Z inventory on points; they routed me OMA-ORD-Toronto on AA then to LHR on BA. The gate agent's in Omaha said as we get closer (March) they could probably change us to ORD-LHR on AA if we wanted. My question is should I bother; is there any service difference between the two, either choice puts us on the same BA flight LHR-FCO?
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 8:42 am
  #1175  
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eVIP/miles+copay/money upgrade

Since we are on this topic, what are your opinion based on
a) value
b) success chances

for the LHR-ORD/JFK?

To me only flying LHR-JFK, seems quite a waste to use an eVIP on this, better to go for the miles+co-pay or just paying the special upgrade fares if available since I can utilize my eVIP for up to 3 segments. This flight to me is quite short, just 7 hours unless extraordinary weather/wind pattern.

For LHR-ORD, I guess this depends on the arrival time.

On flights which I have request the upgrade, I have succeeded until now 100% flight originating from LHR.

What are your thoughts on this?

Cheers!
nldogbert is online now  
Old Aug 16, 2010, 9:30 am
  #1176  
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Originally Posted by kmandrew
A little off point but posters on this thread obviously travel through LHR a bit. I booked OMA-FCO; Z inventory on points; they routed me OMA-ORD-Toronto on AA then to LHR on BA. The gate agent's in Omaha said as we get closer (March) they could probably change us to ORD-LHR on AA if we wanted. My question is should I bother; is there any service difference between the two, either choice puts us on the same BA flight LHR-FCO?
I assume that by Z inventory on points you mean that it is business class. And from your question, I also assume that you haven't flown BA business class before and perhaps haven't flown AA business class internationally. (Sorry if I'm wrong on either count!)

The bottom line for me is stick with BA if your trip is in late March, but switch to AA (if you don't mind the change fees) if you are going in early March. To make a short story long, here's why:

1. BA business class is much nicer than AA in terms of seats and often better in terms of service. One potential downside is that it's possible that on BA you can't book specific seats until a few days beforehand or you might have to pay extra for seat assignments in advance. You might want to call BA about this.
2. Also, switching your award tickets to AA would involve a change in routing, which in turn incurs a service charge of something like $200 (?) per ticket.
3. I think but am not certain that if you fly BA into LHR it might be an easier connection there to FCO. It could be that on BA you'd be in the same terminal arriving and departing, whereas on AA you'd have to switch terminals. (You would have to clear security either way.) This isn't a crucial consideration, though, unless the LHR connection is a tight one. Again, you might want to check on this.
4. Speaking of which, a triple connection through Chicago and then Toronto and finally London has the potential for problems, especially the possibility of weather delays in the first two in winter. Perhaps it's too late, but if you could build in at least a couple of hours for each stop along the way (and preferably longer), you'd be better off.
5. Which brings me to the question of when in March you're going. The earlier in the month, the more likely you'll encounter winter weather problems. By the end of the month, the chances have decreased. So that (together with the change fees if you change routing) is why I suggest sticking with your current routing if your trip is at the end of March but skipping the Toronto connection if at the start of the month.
6. If you do decide to switch to ORD-LHR rather than going through Toronto, it could be that sometime before March the block on using AA miles for BA transatlantic flights between the USA and London will be gone. So if you decide to fork out money for that change and if a BA ORD-LHR flight opens up, that would be the best option.
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 11:09 am
  #1177  
 
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Thank you Thunderroad, I used 125k so the tickets are in First, I had a 5 year unlimited Airpass, flew AA international First probably 20 times a year but it was in the late 80's early 90's. (worked for a company outside Munich) I have not flown to Europe in First since then. I wouldn't pay to change, I have developed a fairly close friendship with the Omaha gate agents; they mentioned there will probably be some kind of a schedule change that would allow them to put me on AA the whole way if I wanted. Just trying to get opinions on what would be a cooler first class experence BA or AA, kind of a big trip for my wife. Thanks
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 11:27 am
  #1178  
 
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kmandrew: Here is one online ranking. FWIW BA is ****, AA is ***. However, look at the First Class service in detail.

http://www.airlinequality.com/Airlines/AA.htm
http://www.airlinequality.com/Airlines/BA.htm

Good luck.
aktchi is offline  
Old Aug 16, 2010, 5:01 pm
  #1179  
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
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I'm traveling to Vail, Colorado over Labor Day weekend and was wondering if this is heavily traveled by Elites? I'm gold and the agent said the return looked promising because I'm returning on Sunday instead of Monday, but my Thursday flight out may not clear. Anybody that has flown this route have any thoughts?
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Old Aug 16, 2010, 9:24 pm
  #1180  
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
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Need advice on ticketing

Wife and I are planning a trip to Turks & Caicos in October and I am wondering how best to book into F or J on OKC-DFW-MIA-PLS. Here's what I'm thinking:

1. Use 60k miles to book MileSaver Bus/First for my wife.
2. Buy O ticket for myself as PLT (so i still earn miles on my EXP quest) and request sticker upgrade.

My question is what are my chances of upgrading those routes in October on Tue or Thur? And a followup, if my upgrade does not clear, can I downgrade my wife back to economy exit row to save the miles or would I be stuck in the back while she's sipping champagne with some rich dude?
rayhurst is offline  
Old Aug 16, 2010, 9:52 pm
  #1181  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
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Originally Posted by krazieman View Post
Flying STL to PVG via ORD and back Aug 28 - Sept 4.
Right now Expertflyer shows J7 and C0 for both flights. I'm on the waiting list with VIPs. Any clue on what my chances are?
Originally Posted by FlyMeToTheLooneyBin
When did you request the upgrades?
I requested the SWU for St. Louis to PVG sometime in early July. I pretty much reticketed my flight from DFW to PVG --> STL to PVG when the double EQP promo came out.
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Old Aug 17, 2010, 12:01 pm
  #1182  
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Originally Posted by rayhurst
Wife and I are planning a trip to Turks & Caicos in October and I am wondering how best to book into F or J on OKC-DFW-MIA-PLS. Here's what I'm thinking:

1. Use 60k miles to book MileSaver Bus/First for my wife.
2. Buy O ticket for myself as PLT (so i still earn miles on my EXP quest) and request sticker upgrade.

My question is what are my chances of upgrading those routes in October on Tue or Thur? And a followup, if my upgrade does not clear, can I downgrade my wife back to economy exit row to save the miles or would I be stuck in the back while she's sipping champagne with some rich dude?
My experience with PLS is limited, but in the low season this July, two GLDs did not clear PLS-MIA, two PLTs did not clear PLS-JFK (one seat available), and two PLTs and two GLDs (different days) did not clear JFK-PLS. My guess is that sticker upgrades to/from PLS may be even harder to come by in October.

As to your other question, I think you'd have to pay the change fee to downgrade her award to an AAnytime coach award (assuming close to departure). If it were me, I'd let my wife enjoy the champagne.
dstan is offline  
Old Aug 17, 2010, 9:00 pm
  #1183  
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
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Originally Posted by krazieman
Flying STL to PVG via ORD and back Aug 28 - Sept 4.
Right now Expertflyer shows J7 and C0 for both flights. I'm on the waiting list with VIPs. Any clue on what my chances are?
I flew ORD-PVG and return in March. Apparently, Saturday is one of -- if not the -- busiest days of the week on this route, both ways.

Requested upgrades for 2, more than two months in advance. Outbound didn't clear. On the return, I got an Expert Flyer alert while at the CX lounge in Hong Kong -- a long distance call to the EXP desk secured the seats, about 6 hours before departure.

So.. while you definitely have a shot... you've picked a bad day to try.

Greg
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Old Aug 17, 2010, 9:39 pm
  #1184  
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Posts: 1,941
Upgrades LAX-JFK observations and seat maps

Not sure if this is the right thread to put this in

I did a couple of flights between LAX-JFK and as as an EXP just put my request for the 500 milers.

5-6 days before the flight - seat map shows 2 seats - expert flyer J2
5 days before - seat map 2, expert flyer J2
etc
day of departure seat map shows 3, expert flyer J2
4-5 hours before, no email of upgrade, go to agent to print off boarding pass - bingo - I am in J
1 hour before flight - 17 people on upgrade list - and agent upgrading at least 3 or 4 people before boarding begins as I saw the names on the upgrade list I presumed that the agent upgraded several.

I thought I would have a slim chance yet got the upgrade about 4-5 hours ahead PLUS several people at the airport.

I know the seat maps aren't accurate but do you think there was only 2 people that got upgrades (including myself) and I was mistaken with the people I saw being called up and sitting in J.

Did they actually plan on upgrading several and only offered J2 for sale as the flight was full in Y and they needed to move people up?

Just trying to figure out the upgrade system
smilee is offline  
Old Aug 17, 2010, 9:49 pm
  #1185  
 
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Looks like the capacity cuts ORD-SFO (1561) from 763 to 738 are having some effect. I'm booked on AA1613 ORD-SFO on 9/7 and EF is showing F5. Yikes! Looks like the few days after Labor Day seem to be heavy award booking
demkr is offline  


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