Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Air New Zealand | Air Points
Reload this Page >

Guestimates on Border Restrictions going

Guestimates on Border Restrictions going

Old May 13, 20, 7:43 pm
  #1  
Ged
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Guestimates on Border Restrictions going

Likely as long as a piece of string but making some plans for year end when we are flying to USA as a family - or not. Might redirect the efforts to Australia if we become a bubble. Knowing what has happened with some of the planes, some routes, some of the crew disestablishment and general Air NZ comms about them being a local carrier for the foreseeable, can you see any regular flights resuming to the USA cities by year end. By regular I mean, we won't be going through 2 weeks of quarantine etc when we arrive back in country. Back to 90% normality of travel.

Appreciate any knowledge that can help influence the decisions etc. Keep telling myself it's 6 months away but seeing the ongoing challenges globally that doesn't seem that far away now.

Cheers
Ged is offline  
Old May 13, 20, 8:37 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 25
When faith in testing accuracy is increased it would be a logical progression to remove the 14 day quarantine.
prp343 is offline  
Old May 13, 20, 8:54 pm
  #3  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Programs: Air NZ Koru, Air NZ ELT *G, IHG Spire Ambassador, Emirates, Flying Blue, QANTAS Club
Posts: 332
1 week to 3 months before September 19th. I actually hope, as have a leisure trip to Scotland and The Ukraine for 3 weeks, booked to fly out on the 26th September . . . . . :-P. The only international trip I take each year that is not work related!
cavemanzk likes this.
kiwicyclo is offline  
Old May 13, 20, 9:08 pm
  #4  
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 20
2023 according to the IATA before air traffic "comes back to normal"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...-iata-predicts
Outbound24 is offline  
Old May 13, 20, 9:17 pm
  #5  
Ged
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
Thanks all. Will wait to see what lovely Air NZ says about our flights closer to the time.

Kiwicylclo - Haven't been back to experience the Scottish cold since moving to South Island's tropical conditions 15 years ago. Still walk around in tshirts during winter. Cracking blue sky days.
Ged is offline  
Old May 13, 20, 10:22 pm
  #6  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,365
Originally Posted by prp343 View Post
When faith in testing accuracy is increased it would be a logical progression to remove the 14 day quarantine.
The PCR based testing protocol which is the current method for identifying SARS-CoV-2 in samples, is possibly too accurate as the most recent positive from the Marist cluster they believe the person had actually recovered from COVID-19 and was the remaining RNA fragments from a weeks recovered infection.

The quarantine is needed as if the person got infected just before getting on the plane it may take 14 days to show symptoms or have enough SARS-CoV-2 to return a positive test.

There will never be an on the spot test as need the incubation time, to create testable of the virus.

There are, currently not very accurate, test which show if antibodies in blood, which shows that body has had an immune response to the virus. But currently test not accurate nor is there any evidence indicating that having COVID-19 once gives you immunity.

The quarantine will stay until a vaccine with evidence showing people can become immune or with bubbles like Australia based of confidence there isn't infections.

Aussie bubble I see their states are having staged plans, so I would assume they want to reach the end of those plans before they open things up more to say NZ.

NZ I would say will be four weeks before level one at least. Think the Aussie plans are longer. So a while yet before a bubble.

As to the US I see a second wave in near future and not in high demand for tourists or business travel for some time especially with a 14 day quarantine on return.

I don't see myself booking non bubble travel before this time next year. It's going to take that long to get understand the virus and hopefully by then will be a timeline for the vaccine roll out.
nzkarit is online now  
Old May 13, 20, 11:19 pm
  #7  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: PPQ/WLG/BKK
Programs: TG*G, Accor Gold
Posts: 7,683
I deferred my Asia trip with TG from Apr to Oct, and now they have widened the date range for a deferred travel to Dec 2021. I could go for a refund ($1800), but could also still do that in the future - providing that THAI doesn't go bankrupt!
Complicating matters, the fare is a Flexi economy fare with upgrade to J, which would be lost if I pursued a refund.

So, like everybody else, I need to take a stab on whether or not international travel (beyond Aussie) from NZ to <insert_destination_not Aussie> will be a 'go' or not.

It is hard to be positive about anything before late next year - and many unknowns........
Thai-Kiwi is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 12:06 am
  #8  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: MEL CHC
Posts: 15,852
Originally Posted by Ged View Post
Likely as long as a piece of string but making some plans for year end when we are flying to USA as a family - or not. Might redirect the efforts to Australia if we become a bubble. Knowing what has happened with some of the planes, some routes, some of the crew disestablishment and general Air NZ comms about them being a local carrier for the foreseeable, can you see any regular flights resuming to the USA cities by year end. By regular I mean, we won't be going through 2 weeks of quarantine etc when we arrive back in country. Back to 90% normality of travel.

Appreciate any knowledge that can help influence the decisions etc. Keep telling myself it's 6 months away but seeing the ongoing challenges globally that doesn't seem that far away now.
Given that COVID-19 in USA, UK and other countries is far from being under control, to me the chances of New Zealand and Australia being open to visitors from USA, UK etc and the converse of Au/NZ citizens going to USA, UK etc IMHO are nil for this calendar year. For June 2021 maybe 50%. Watch what Wintson says.
The fear is those citizens returning could have COVID-19. Australia has taken a different approach to NZ. Australian citizens cannot leave, unless a specific exemption. So no one returning.
A trans Tasman bubble from July is possible. The TT airline schedules have flights from July, but not for June. They won't be taking booking unless they think they can fly.
Links
----> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...-soon/12240618
----> https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2...-over/12240646
---->https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...perts/12233792
kiwifrequentflyer likes this.

Last edited by Mwenenzi; May 14, 20 at 12:12 am
Mwenenzi is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 12:08 am
  #9  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: Tokyo
Programs: Bonvoy LT Titanium ANA Plat
Posts: 211
Originally Posted by Thai-Kiwi View Post
I deferred my Asia trip with TG from Apr to Oct, and now they have widened the date range for a deferred travel to Dec 2021. I could go for a refund ($1800), but could also still do that in the future - providing that THAI doesn't go bankrupt!
Complicating matters, the fare is a Flexi economy fare with upgrade to J, which would be lost if I pursued a refund.

So, like everybody else, I need to take a stab on whether or not international travel (beyond Aussie) from NZ to <insert_destination_not Aussie> will be a 'go' or not.

It is hard to be positive about anything before late next year - and many unknowns........
If you go for a refund, note they are quoting 180 days to get the cash back !!!
BRITINJAPAN4 is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 12:41 am
  #10  
Moderator, CoronaVirus and Hilton Honors
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: grounded for now
Programs: some
Posts: 70,972
It isn't just a question of whether NZ quarantine on arrival restrictions are lifted (seems unlikely for arrivals from USA this year), but other risks :
- being infected while overseas (with no insurance coverage)
- border/travel rules changing at short/no notice while overseas
- flight schedules changing at short/no notice while overseas

To me, this suggests booking as late as possible (even just days before you want to go); or take a lower risk option of domestic NZ (and probably Australia too after about July/August 2020).
Kiwi Flyer is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 12:59 am
  #11  
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,365
Originally Posted by Mwenenzi View Post
A trans Tasman bubble from July is possible. The TT airline schedules have flights from July, but not for June. They won't be taking booking unless they think they can fly.
The July onwards flights are there because they have only deleted to the end of June. Not because they will be flying. E.g. I have flights showing in August on 773s even though they are grounded for pax flights until at least April next year.
nzkarit is online now  
Old May 14, 20, 1:17 am
  #12  
Ged
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 48
The flights are booked - have been for a few months so really just waiting to see what happens re cancellations . I have accommodation booked as well but they have flexibility generally and are happy to cancel based upon Air NZ approach i.e if I can't make it due to airline then they will happily refund the deposits. . Agree Kiwi Flyer- the insurance exclusions and USA medical costs etc aren't palatable.

Cheers all. Some good points.
Ged is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 4:49 am
  #13  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: New Zealand (when I'm home!)
Programs: Air NZ Elite
Posts: 786
The only way I see the USA trip happening in any way that won't require a 2-week quarantine coming home from the USA by December is a medical cure to Covid-19 that somewhat trivialises it.

Until then, the virus is going to be all throughout the USA until a vaccine hits, making it a constant hot spot.

What I would tentatively bet on:

* A trans tasman/Pacific Islans border opening in 3 months.
* Travel to a very limited, select number of Asian countries opening in 6 months.
Ged likes this.
kiwifrequentflyer is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 7:56 am
  #14  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: West Coast, Best Coast
Programs: Flying whoever is most convenient
Posts: 15,865
The press that the USA is getting is worse than the actual situation, but the only reason the actual situation is better than advertised is aggressive lockdowns implemented at the state and local levels.

I would not be in a hurry to leave NZ to come to the US under the best of circumstances, and certainly not now. Unfortunately I am not planning on being able to visit NZ as a US citizen until late 2021, coinciding with widescale availability of a vaccine. If a visit happens sooner I will be pleasantly surprised.
dlaue and SeaProf like this.
PV_Premier is offline  
Old May 14, 20, 10:26 am
  #15  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: YYZ/SFO/AKL
Programs: NZ*G, back of the bus UA, corner of the MLL AC.
Posts: 245
I'm hoping NZ reinstate YVR sooner rather than later and that the two week managed self isolation will start to be more targetted.

Wishful thinking, perhaps – but I'd love to come home for Christmas.
samyoull is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: