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-   -   Guestimates on NZ Border Restrictions going (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/oceania-australia-new-zealand-south-pacific/2017678-guestimates-nz-border-restrictions-going.html)

Ged May 13, 2020 8:43 pm

Guestimates on NZ Border Restrictions going
 
Likely as long as a piece of string but making some plans for year end when we are flying to USA as a family - or not. Might redirect the efforts to Australia if we become a bubble. Knowing what has happened with some of the planes, some routes, some of the crew disestablishment and general Air NZ comms about them being a local carrier for the foreseeable, can you see any regular flights resuming to the USA cities by year end. By regular I mean, we won't be going through 2 weeks of quarantine etc when we arrive back in country. Back to 90% normality of travel.

Appreciate any knowledge that can help influence the decisions etc. Keep telling myself it's 6 months away but seeing the ongoing challenges globally that doesn't seem that far away now.

Cheers

prp343 May 13, 2020 9:37 pm

When faith in testing accuracy is increased it would be a logical progression to remove the 14 day quarantine.

kiwicyclo May 13, 2020 9:54 pm

1 week to 3 months before September 19th. I actually hope, as have a leisure trip to Scotland and The Ukraine for 3 weeks, booked to fly out on the 26th September . . . . . :-P. The only international trip I take each year that is not work related!

Outbound24 May 13, 2020 10:08 pm

2023 according to the IATA before air traffic "comes back to normal"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...-iata-predicts

Ged May 13, 2020 10:17 pm

Thanks all. Will wait to see what lovely Air NZ says about our flights closer to the time.

Kiwicylclo - Haven't been back to experience the Scottish cold since moving to South Island's tropical conditions 15 years ago. Still walk around in tshirts during winter. Cracking blue sky days.

nzkarit May 13, 2020 11:22 pm


Originally Posted by prp343 (Post 32373487)
When faith in testing accuracy is increased it would be a logical progression to remove the 14 day quarantine.

The PCR based testing protocol which is the current method for identifying SARS-CoV-2 in samples, is possibly too accurate as the most recent positive from the Marist cluster they believe the person had actually recovered from COVID-19 and was the remaining RNA fragments from a weeks recovered infection.

The quarantine is needed as if the person got infected just before getting on the plane it may take 14 days to show symptoms or have enough SARS-CoV-2 to return a positive test.

There will never be an on the spot test as need the incubation time, to create testable of the virus.

There are, currently not very accurate, test which show if antibodies in blood, which shows that body has had an immune response to the virus. But currently test not accurate nor is there any evidence indicating that having COVID-19 once gives you immunity.

The quarantine will stay until a vaccine with evidence showing people can become immune or with bubbles like Australia based of confidence there isn't infections.

Aussie bubble I see their states are having staged plans, so I would assume they want to reach the end of those plans before they open things up more to say NZ.

NZ I would say will be four weeks before level one at least. Think the Aussie plans are longer. So a while yet before a bubble.

As to the US I see a second wave in near future and not in high demand for tourists or business travel for some time especially with a 14 day quarantine on return.

I don't see myself booking non bubble travel before this time next year. It's going to take that long to get understand the virus and hopefully by then will be a timeline for the vaccine roll out.

Thai-Kiwi May 14, 2020 12:19 am

I deferred my Asia trip with TG from Apr to Oct, and now they have widened the date range for a deferred travel to Dec 2021. I could go for a refund ($1800), but could also still do that in the future - providing that THAI doesn't go bankrupt!
Complicating matters, the fare is a Flexi economy fare with upgrade to J, which would be lost if I pursued a refund.

So, like everybody else, I need to take a stab on whether or not international travel (beyond Aussie) from NZ to <insert_destination_not Aussie> will be a 'go' or not.

It is hard to be positive about anything before late next year - and many unknowns........

Mwenenzi May 14, 2020 1:06 am


Originally Posted by Ged (Post 32373404)
Likely as long as a piece of string but making some plans for year end when we are flying to USA as a family - or not. Might redirect the efforts to Australia if we become a bubble. Knowing what has happened with some of the planes, some routes, some of the crew disestablishment and general Air NZ comms about them being a local carrier for the foreseeable, can you see any regular flights resuming to the USA cities by year end. By regular I mean, we won't be going through 2 weeks of quarantine etc when we arrive back in country. Back to 90% normality of travel.

Appreciate any knowledge that can help influence the decisions etc. Keep telling myself it's 6 months away but seeing the ongoing challenges globally that doesn't seem that far away now.

Given that COVID-19 in USA, UK and other countries is far from being under control, to me the chances of New Zealand and Australia being open to visitors from USA, UK etc and the converse of Au/NZ citizens going to USA, UK etc IMHO are nil for this calendar year. For June 2021 maybe 50%. Watch what Wintson says.
The fear is those citizens returning could have COVID-19. Australia has taken a different approach to NZ. Australian citizens cannot leave, unless a specific exemption. So no one returning.
A trans Tasman bubble from July is possible. The TT airline schedules have flights from July, but not for June. They won't be taking booking unless they think they can fly.
Links
----> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...-soon/12240618
----> https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2...-over/12240646
---->https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-...perts/12233792

BRITINJAPAN4 May 14, 2020 1:08 am


Originally Posted by Thai-Kiwi (Post 32373759)
I deferred my Asia trip with TG from Apr to Oct, and now they have widened the date range for a deferred travel to Dec 2021. I could go for a refund ($1800), but could also still do that in the future - providing that THAI doesn't go bankrupt!
Complicating matters, the fare is a Flexi economy fare with upgrade to J, which would be lost if I pursued a refund.

So, like everybody else, I need to take a stab on whether or not international travel (beyond Aussie) from NZ to <insert_destination_not Aussie> will be a 'go' or not.

It is hard to be positive about anything before late next year - and many unknowns........

If you go for a refund, note they are quoting 180 days to get the cash back !!!

Kiwi Flyer May 14, 2020 1:41 am

It isn't just a question of whether NZ quarantine on arrival restrictions are lifted (seems unlikely for arrivals from USA this year), but other risks :
- being infected while overseas (with no insurance coverage)
- border/travel rules changing at short/no notice while overseas
- flight schedules changing at short/no notice while overseas

To me, this suggests booking as late as possible (even just days before you want to go); or take a lower risk option of domestic NZ (and probably Australia too after about July/August 2020).

nzkarit May 14, 2020 1:59 am


Originally Posted by Mwenenzi (Post 32373807)
A trans Tasman bubble from July is possible. The TT airline schedules have flights from July, but not for June. They won't be taking booking unless they think they can fly.

The July onwards flights are there because they have only deleted to the end of June. Not because they will be flying. E.g. I have flights showing in August on 773s even though they are grounded for pax flights until at least April next year.

Ged May 14, 2020 2:17 am

The flights are booked - have been for a few months so really just waiting to see what happens re cancellations . I have accommodation booked as well but they have flexibility generally and are happy to cancel based upon Air NZ approach i.e if I can't make it due to airline then they will happily refund the deposits. . Agree Kiwi Flyer- the insurance exclusions and USA medical costs etc aren't palatable.

Cheers all. Some good points.

kiwifrequentflyer May 14, 2020 5:49 am

The only way I see the USA trip happening in any way that won't require a 2-week quarantine coming home from the USA by December is a medical cure to Covid-19 that somewhat trivialises it.

Until then, the virus is going to be all throughout the USA until a vaccine hits, making it a constant hot spot.

What I would tentatively bet on:

* A trans tasman/Pacific Islans border opening in 3 months.
* Travel to a very limited, select number of Asian countries opening in 6 months.

PV_Premier May 14, 2020 8:56 am

The press that the USA is getting is worse than the actual situation, but the only reason the actual situation is better than advertised is aggressive lockdowns implemented at the state and local levels.

I would not be in a hurry to leave NZ to come to the US under the best of circumstances, and certainly not now. Unfortunately I am not planning on being able to visit NZ as a US citizen until late 2021, coinciding with widescale availability of a vaccine. If a visit happens sooner I will be pleasantly surprised.

samyoull May 14, 2020 11:26 am

I'm hoping NZ reinstate YVR sooner rather than later and that the two week managed self isolation will start to be more targetted.

Wishful thinking, perhaps – but I'd love to come home for Christmas.


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