Guestimates on NZ Border Restrictions going

Old May 14, 20, 11:27 am
  #16  
 
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I have a flight to NZ (ex YVR) booked for September but have zero expectation of it happening.
As much as I can hope and wish, the reality is NZ will want to keep it's border closed until COVID 19 is squashed around the world and a vaccine is in place, that will not happen this year.
I will take a refund (business saver ticket) less $500 cancellation fee as opposed to a credit.
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Old May 14, 20, 11:29 am
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by samyoull View Post
I'm hoping NZ reinstate YVR sooner rather than later and that the two week managed self isolation will start to be more targetted.

Wishful thinking, perhaps but I'd love to come home for Christmas.
Our gang was looking to go there for Xmas as well, but not likely.
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I'm YLW based.
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Old May 14, 20, 2:55 pm
  #18  
 
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I would love to go to Canada as well but there is no way that will happen without a 2-week quarantine coming home at this rate. The standard for NZ to extend its bubble is extraordinary high, as in, no community spread and actual daily cases very very low.
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Old May 14, 20, 3:02 pm
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Originally Posted by Ged View Post
Likely as long as a piece of string but making some plans for year end when we are flying to USA as a family - or not. Might redirect the efforts to Australia if we become a bubble. Knowing what has happened with some of the planes, some routes, some of the crew disestablishment and general Air NZ comms about them being a local carrier for the foreseeable, can you see any regular flights resuming to the USA cities by year end. By regular I mean, we won't be going through 2 weeks of quarantine etc when we arrive back in country. Back to 90% normality of travel.

Appreciate any knowledge that can help influence the decisions etc. Keep telling myself it's 6 months away but seeing the ongoing challenges globally that doesn't seem that far away now.

Cheers
In my uninformed opinion, no, I cannot see regular flights resuming between the USA and NZ for a very long time. I don't see myself being allowed to enter NZ until a vaccine is widespread, if that ever happens (no guarantees). Quite honestly, I would avoid the USA like the "plague" for the time being - my gut feeling is it will get much, much worse in the country before this is over. Stick to countries that have a plan for how to deal with the virus, not countries that are just winging it.
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Old May 14, 20, 3:18 pm
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by taupo View Post
Our gang was looking to go there for Xmas as well, but not likely.
Are you in BC?
I'm YLW based.
Currently YYZ but soon to be YYJ
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Old May 14, 20, 3:20 pm
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by SeaProf View Post
In my uninformed opinion, no, I cannot see regular flights resuming between the USA and NZ for a very long time. I don't see myself being allowed to enter NZ until a vaccine is widespread, if that ever happens (no guarantees). Quite honestly, I would avoid the USA like the "plague" for the time being - my gut feeling is it will get much, much worse in the country before this is over. Stick to countries that have a plan for how to deal with the virus, not countries that are just winging it.
You know NZ1/2 AKL-LAX is still running, right? NZ citizens can enter the US fine, just have to deal with the whole two weeks managed self isolation on arrival back home.
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Old May 14, 20, 3:25 pm
  #22  
 
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Current entry rules to NZ require 14 days mandatory Govt quarantine for all those permitted to enter (see below).

The door really is locked quite firmly, with only Australia have a glimmer of hope. The Islands might come sometime after - will be difficult balancing each of their economy-health considerations.

Category 1A: Cannot travel to New Zealand. All countries

Category 1B: Can travel to New Zealand but must be quarantined or placed in managed isolation for 14 days
People to whom Category 1A does not apply:
  • New Zealand citizens and residence class visa holders (including the Realm - the Cook Islands, Niue, Tokelau),
  • The partner, legal guardian or any dependent children travelling with a New Zealand citizen or residence class visa holder,
  • Australian citizens and permanent residence class visa holders ordinarily resident in New Zealand, and
  • People subject to regulation 25 of the Immigration (Visa, Entry Permission, and Related Matters) Regulations 2010, which includes air and marine crew.
  • Diplomats accredited to New Zealand and currently resident in New Zealand.

Category 2: Can travel to New Zealand and must self-isolate for 14 days if unwell. No countries
source: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...order-controls

Last edited by Thai-Kiwi; May 14, 20 at 3:48 pm
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Old May 14, 20, 3:29 pm
  #23  
 
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Originally Posted by Thai-Kiwi View Post
Isn't this actually mandatory quarantine in NZ Govt provided premises? Quite different to 'managed self-isolation'.
No if showing no symptoms it is managed isolation in a govt facility (aka a hotel). You are only put into quarantine of have symptoms when arrive or develop symptoms during managed isolation.

Quarantine has specific meanings in law, so can only be used for people with symptoms.
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Old May 14, 20, 3:32 pm
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by Thai-Kiwi View Post
Isn't this actually mandatory quarantine in NZ Govt provided premises? Quite different to 'managed self-isolation'.
'managed self-isolation' is hanging in a hotel of the government's choice for two weeks.

'Managed' is them choosing where you'll be.

If you're lucky you'll get the SO/ Auckland.
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Old May 14, 20, 3:54 pm
  #25  
 
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Originally Posted by nzkarit View Post
No if showing no symptoms it is managed isolation in a govt facility (aka a hotel). You are only put into quarantine of have symptoms when arrive or develop symptoms during managed isolation.

Quarantine has specific meanings in law, so can only be used for people with symptoms.
Originally Posted by samyoull View Post
'managed self-isolation' is hanging in a hotel of the government's choice for two weeks.

'Managed' is them choosing where you'll be.

If you're lucky you'll get the SO/ Auckland.
Yep, I was just being fussy over the 'self' element of samyoull's phrase 'managed self-isolation' - my point being that that 'self-isolation' was a less strict 'stay at home' control measure used initially.

The current options are both Govt controlled and are:

managed isolation; or
quarantine

With the difference between these two as nzkarit notes.

Last edited by Thai-Kiwi; May 14, 20 at 4:30 pm Reason: typos
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Old May 14, 20, 4:13 pm
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by Thai-Kiwi View Post
Yep, I was just being fussy over the 'self' element of samyoull's phrased 'managed self-isolation' - my point being that that 'self-isolation was a less strict 'stay at home' control measure used initially.

The current options are both Govt controlled and are:

managed isolation; or
quarantine

With the difference between these two as nzkarit notes.
Good pickup yep 'managed isolation' it is.
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Old May 14, 20, 4:54 pm
  #27  
 
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If New Zealand's 14-day isolation was like other countries where you simply say where you will isolate, and can go home, I would be far more tempted to risk straying abroad for business more. But with the hotel situation, it's an actual, true deterrent. Which I am not mad about at all.
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Old May 14, 20, 5:06 pm
  #28  
 
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I would love to see NZ implement Iceland's model – get tested at the airport (maybe at both departure and arrival?), negative result and you're free to go.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...flavik-airport
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Old May 14, 20, 5:31 pm
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by nzkarit View Post
The PCR based testing protocol which is the current method for identifying SARS-CoV-2 in samples, is possibly too accurate as the most recent positive from the Marist cluster they believe the person had actually recovered from COVID-19 and was the remaining RNA fragments from a weeks recovered infection.

The quarantine is needed as if the person got infected just before getting on the plane it may take 14 days to show symptoms or have enough SARS-CoV-2 to return a positive test.

There will never be an on the spot test as need the incubation time, to create testable of the virus.

There are, currently not very accurate, test which show if antibodies in blood, which shows that body has had an immune response to the virus. But currently test not accurate nor is there any evidence indicating that having COVID-19 once gives you immunity.

The quarantine will stay until a vaccine with evidence showing people can become immune or with bubbles like Australia based of confidence there isn't infections.

Aussie bubble I see their states are having staged plans, so I would assume they want to reach the end of those plans before they open things up more to say NZ.

NZ I would say will be four weeks before level one at least. Think the Aussie plans are longer. So a while yet before a bubble.

As to the US I see a second wave in near future and not in high demand for tourists or business travel for some time especially with a 14 day quarantine on return.

I don't see myself booking non bubble travel before this time next year. It's going to take that long to get understand the virus and hopefully by then will be a timeline for the vaccine roll out.
I should have elaborated more. When there are different, quicker, more accurate tests available then the quarantine period should be at least shortened if not removed. If a test for example identifies x% of all positive cases at the time then there should be some tolerance for opening the border quickly to people that test negative. Obviously more complicated if someone on the flight tests positive, then there may need to be some small delay even for those that tested negative.
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Old May 14, 20, 5:34 pm
  #30  
 
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Originally Posted by samyoull View Post
I would love to see NZ implement Iceland's model get tested at the airport (maybe at both departure and arrival?), negative result and you're free to go.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...flavik-airport
But how does that keep SARS-CoV-2 out of the country?

A negative test can mean:
* False Negative. Returns negative when test should return positive.
* Too early in infection to test positive
* Actually have no SARS-CoV-2 in body.

In some ways better not to test and put people in isolation, as if people are option 1 or 2 they will think they are fine and go a spread SARS-CoV-2 everywhere. Which is the opposite of what you want.

Tests are only helpful when test at the right time and fully understand what the results could mean.
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