FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Guestimates on NZ Border Restrictions going
Old May 13, 2020, 11:22 pm
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 2,566
Originally Posted by prp343
When faith in testing accuracy is increased it would be a logical progression to remove the 14 day quarantine.
The PCR based testing protocol which is the current method for identifying SARS-CoV-2 in samples, is possibly too accurate as the most recent positive from the Marist cluster they believe the person had actually recovered from COVID-19 and was the remaining RNA fragments from a weeks recovered infection.

The quarantine is needed as if the person got infected just before getting on the plane it may take 14 days to show symptoms or have enough SARS-CoV-2 to return a positive test.

There will never be an on the spot test as need the incubation time, to create testable of the virus.

There are, currently not very accurate, test which show if antibodies in blood, which shows that body has had an immune response to the virus. But currently test not accurate nor is there any evidence indicating that having COVID-19 once gives you immunity.

The quarantine will stay until a vaccine with evidence showing people can become immune or with bubbles like Australia based of confidence there isn't infections.

Aussie bubble I see their states are having staged plans, so I would assume they want to reach the end of those plans before they open things up more to say NZ.

NZ I would say will be four weeks before level one at least. Think the Aussie plans are longer. So a while yet before a bubble.

As to the US I see a second wave in near future and not in high demand for tourists or business travel for some time especially with a 14 day quarantine on return.

I don't see myself booking non bubble travel before this time next year. It's going to take that long to get understand the virus and hopefully by then will be a timeline for the vaccine roll out.
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