Originally Posted by Wpgjetse

It still is, except the 112 YYZ - YVR flights if they were in Tango and not counting the fees. BTW, was AE around when AC had F class? I know 1 thing, AC didn't fly any Pacific routes at that time.

Originally Posted by IluvSQ

No, but I was able to fly UA, or CX, and redeem for the flights I wanted.

Originally Posted by WR Cage

Good analysis @Stranger on the challenges faced by AE.

A few more points to consider:
(1) Aimia has $600 million cash and short term investments, however discounted liabilities for future point redemption are $2.2 billion.
(2) The liabilities all ready have a healthy breakage amount built into their calculation. If the assumption on breakage do not prove to be true (e.g. small time AE members decide to clear out their account), this liability could increase at a rapid rate.
(3) Aimia has suspended their dividend and key finance are in the process of finding alternate employment. The CFO departed 10 days ago. All this points to AE going into cash conservation mode.
(4) There is a real risk that average joe AE members will stop collecting AE miles and move to other programs because everyone is under the impression that rewards end June 30, 2020. This could impact AE inbound cash.

This past week in YYC was Calgary Stampede. I had a long time in various pancake and BBQ lineups with my inlaws. They have all stopped collecting AE miles through Gas, hardware store, etc. Further, they have switched into a harvest mindset. Taking a 50,000 market price reward on YYC-LAS-YYC is a lot more appealing now. Before the divorce announcement, all my inlaws were hoping to cash in a J class reward to Europe.

So multiply my mother in law, wife's aunt and uncle over the "average joe/jane" person collecting AE miles, and the financing question faced by Aimia is whether they have a 2.2 billion liability or a 4 billion liability. This question is exclusive of SE and Altitude status holders, most of whom have redeemed as the earn on at least a few occasions.

Originally Posted by WR Cage

Good analysis @Stranger on the challenges faced by AE.

A few more points to consider:
(1) Aimia has $600 million cash and short term investments, however discounted liabilities for future point redemption are $2.2 billion.
(2) The liabilities all ready have a healthy breakage amount built into their calculation. If the assumption on breakage do not prove to be true (e.g. small time AE members decide to clear out their account), this liability could increase at a rapid rate.
(3) Aimia has suspended their dividend and key finance are in the process of finding alternate employment. The CFO departed 10 days ago. All this points to AE going into cash conservation mode.
(4) There is a real risk that average joe AE members will stop collecting AE miles and move to other programs because everyone is under the impression that rewards end June 30, 2020. This could impact AE inbound cash.

This past week in YYC was Calgary Stampede. I had a long time in various pancake and BBQ lineups with my inlaws. They have all stopped collecting AE miles through Gas, hardware store, etc. Further, they have switched into a harvest mindset. Taking a 50,000 market price reward on YYC-LAS-YYC is a lot more appealing now. Before the divorce announcement, all my inlaws were hoping to cash in a J class reward to Europe.

So multiply my mother in law, wife's aunt and uncle over the "average joe/jane" person collecting AE miles, and the financing question faced by Aimia is whether they have a 2.2 billion liability or a 4 billion liability. This question is exclusive of SE and Altitude status holders, most of whom have redeemed as the earn on at least a few occasions.

Originally Posted by Clipper801

I think many stopped collecting AE points long before the divorce announcement when they realize that it's near impossible to find redemption seats on AC unless one is SE with IKK.

Originally Posted by Clipper801

I think many stopped collecting AE points long before the divorce announcement when they realize that it's near impossible to find redemption seats on AC unless one is SE with IKK. Even when in rare time, they can find seats, they are shocked at the high fees being charged for the supposedly "free" tickets.

The inevitable eventual demise of AE is self inflicted.

Originally Posted by canadiancow

Then wouldn't every program be equally bad?

X/I/O availability are the same for all partners.

Unless you're talking about Canadians flying within Canada. Aeroplan has more seats than other partners, which would make Aeroplan a better option in terms of availability.

Originally Posted by pitz

That's complete hyperbole. AP redemptions were never designed to displace revenue travel from AC's perspective. That's why, for example, most of the "corporate" or "government" world doesn't consider collecting AP points on employer or public paid travel to be a form of bribery. That's why the CRA doesn't consider them a taxable benefit. AP is just a fancy way of allocating seats in the AC network (and extended more recently, to the Star Alliance) that were probably never going to be sold for revenue.



Most of the fees are government-imposed surcharges, AIFs, etc. Their beef isn't really with AC. Yes, there are some routes that AC's discounting of highly restricted revenue tickets has made AP redemptions rather unattractive, but there are lots of domestic redemptions that are still an excellent value.



Perhaps so, by going wild with selling points. But as I said in a previous message, the airline business in Canada is notoriously cyclical and AC will likely be begging AP to come back into the fold when the load factors start dropping significantly due to a consumer spending pullback.

Originally Posted by canadiancow

Then wouldn't every program be equally bad?

X/I/O availability are the same for all partners.

Unless you're talking about Canadians flying within Canada. Aeroplan has more seats than other partners, which would make Aeroplan a better option in terms of availability.

Originally Posted by IluvSQ

All I know is that when FF plans were first instituted, if I flew, say, 12 round trips paid F Transpacific, I was able to redeem one Transpacific
round trip in F at no charge, when I wanted to fly.
If I flew 12 transAtlantic flights in J, I was able to redeem 1 transAtlantic
flight in J at no charge, when I wanted to fly.
If I flew 12 YYZ-YVR returns in Y, I'd be able to redeem 1 YYZ-YVR flight
at no charge, on a non-stop, when I wanted to fly.

None of these are remotely possible today.

Originally Posted by Guava

I probably have more experience redeeming on AC domestically using non-Aeroplan miles than most people here since I left Aeroplan over a decade ago. As far as I am concerned, I have never experienced a case where Aeroplan somehow has greater availability than its *A partners.

Originally Posted by Wpgjetse

I don't understand what you are trying to say. As SE, you basically can fly any flight you want on points. Isn't that what UA and CX is offering?

Originally Posted by IluvSQ

You were telling me that AC did not fly transpacific back in the 80's and 90's.
I agreed, but in those days one could use AE points to redeem for CX flights.

Originally Posted by Guava

Things could have changed since 2011 as I don't typically redeem on Air Canada these days. Back when BD was an Aeroplan partner, whatever availability that is shown on Aeroplan.com, it was bookable using BD miles, including Business Class. That's how I checked availability before calling BD to book.

During the Vancouver Olympics, I once redeemed an award ticket on AC in J using BD miles as follows: SEA-YYZ-YUL(Stopver)-YVR as a one way award using BD's crazy award chart and its infamous Indian Call Center. You would think a domestic transcontinental such as YUL-YVR in J would be next to impossible during the Olympics but alas, it was available and not a red eye flight either.

I probably have more experience redeeming on AC domestically using non-Aeroplan miles than most people here since I left Aeroplan over a decade ago. As far as I am concerned, I have never experienced a case where Aeroplan somehow has greater availability than its *A partners.

Originally Posted by The smallest state

You flew from Seattle to Vancouver with stops in Toronto and Montreal? Why wouldn't you drive? It would have been way quicker. I could see it for a mileage run, but redeeming miles???? I am missing something here.