Ah...yes but what if AC could offer superior service/ammenties etc to the competition and could sell all 400 seats @ $1K = $400K in revenue?

COMPETITION??? To Air Canada???

Or AC may be forced to sell $500 tickets to 200 pax for a revenue of $100K.

This too may be an alternative as many of the $1K paseengers are dissappearing. So here, you need to see if a revenue of $100K with a 767 or a $200K with a B744 the most profitable?

I believe all AC pilots who fly the A319/320/321 fleet get the same regardless of the aircraft they fly.

I have a feeling that AC might look at both the A318 and the CRJ700/900, because they fulfil different aspects of what Air Canada is looking for.

With the DC-9 already gone, and the 737-200 and 146's on their way out, the two aircraft will be able to fill this whole nicely. The CRJ's will replace the DC-9's and 146's, while the 318 will replace the 737-200.

Does anyone think they will replace the current fleet of Dash 8s with CRJs? This would make for a much quieter flight from YYC to YQR.

Westernflyer,

Very doubtful. I think in the YYC-YQR/YXE corridor, you will end up seeing the routes being picked up by YYZ-bound A319/A320 aircraft in the future, much like Westjet already does into YHM.

As an example, AC could do YYZ-YXE-YYC and YYZ-YQR-YYC, and return, falling within the 10 hour duty time limits of a single flight crew.

This would be the most logical arrangement for Saskatchewan, as the current schedule always requires overnight hotel stays for the crew of AC1128. Also it would allow for the elimination of the YQR-YXE flights (AC 1128, AC 6081, AC 157, AC 1127) which do not contribute at all to AC's revenue and for 15 more minutes in the air, you could reach YYC anyways.

Just my 2 cents. I hope the debtors make AC look very long and hard at their route network and increasing fleet utilization and removing severe scheduling deficiencies (as above) will be key to a successful AC reorganization.

OK, I'm a wee bit confused here. The 737-200s are on their way out? ZIP just got started with the 'newly refurbished' aircraft. Will this mean that the new A318s will become the new ZIP fleet? BTW, only 90 mins left to go in April 1st.

AC didn't say anything about A318s; we did. They said they were looking at CRJs, which are cheaper to operate than 737s.

There are a few routes that could use an aircraft with less than 120 seats and more than 50. Several routes out of Ottawa would work: YOW-YWG, YOW-YHZ, YOW-YYC (if a CRJ could make it and people could be convinced to fly on one). They are still flying 737s on some routes out of YYZ (YQT, YQM, YQB); these would probably also work well. And they will need smaller planes for Zip if they want to maintain the frequency and increase the load factor beyond 50%.

Also, if they go all Y on many domestic routes, which I think is quite likely, then the A319 will seat somewhere around 134 pax.

This is a neagtive for the A318 joining the AC fleet.

Yes we did. But basically from what I heard within STAR alliance and LH in the last few weeks, AC has joined LH, OS and SK in looking for aircraft to seat pax in the 70-120 pax classes. This happened a few weeks ago.

LH is basically looking to replace their cancelled Fairchild Dornier Aircraft. And it seems they may be looking for replacements for their 737-300s and 737-500s.

For 70 seat aircraft CRJ700s are being considered

For 90 seat aircraft CRJ900s are being considered

For 100 seat aircraft, A318-100s and B717-200s are considered

For 120 seat aircraft, A319-100s and B717-300X (Latter is being pushed at Boeing) are considered.

Embraer's ERJ 170/175/190/195 I believe were not in the running. But things may have changed after a big order cancellation of Embraer jets from Swiss.

With regards to AC, I suspect they will likely be looking at 20-40 aircraft total as replacements. And will likely be ordering what the other STAR carriers will be ordering. But at the same time, I doubt AC will order the B717-300X if LH pushes for them and orders them.

I do believe AC will order RJs. Likely even the 70 seat variety as well. But For the 90/100 seat aircraft AC will likely look at the CRJ900, B717-200 and the A318-100 and likely order 1 of them as replacements for their B737-200.

Anyway with the B747-400 expecting to be sold off/retired will it mean advancing the delivery dates of the A340-600s?

Wonder if the AC fleet structure will look this in the future:

50 seats CRJ 100/200
70 seats (If needed CRJ700 replaces some Bae146 ajnd replaces the 90/100 seat category)
90/100 seats CRJ900/B712/A318 replaces B732s and Bae 146s
120/130 seats A319
140/150 seats A320
160/170 Seats A321
180-230 seats B763ERs (For domestic and international)
260-280 seats A343 very long haul
A345 Ultra long haul
A333 Transatlantic
310-340 seats A346


[This message has been edited by AC_flyer (edited 04-02-2003).]

[This message has been edited by AC_flyer (edited 04-02-2003).]

I really think that Embraer does not have the firepower to play ball in this deal - the Ottawa Advantage for the 70 to 90 seat airframes means that it is CRJ territory, with the exception of a breakthrough price on A318 or Boeing 717 that would lead to only 70 seat CRJ's being bought.

It's interesting to note that LH is a pretty big fan of the CRJ product - but in terms of a category of regional jet, I think they could also be very happy with ERJ 175's.

The A318 is a widebody, and is a totally different product from a RJ when you look at it that way. It uses the same CFM56-5's as the larger siblings, and it would complete the "adjustable yield response" concept that Airbus is so keen on to compete against Boeing's better operating costs.

What Airbus points out is that as you have demand shifts on certain routes, you simply shift aircraft from one route to another, enabling the airline to capture potentially "lost" revenue in the form of passengers turned away due to oversold flights. The pilot shows up knowing he is flying an Airbus 320 "family" plane, either a shorter or longer fuselage, that's all.

What the model does not take into account is that an airline usually has much lower pilot costs to seat someone up front in a RJ versus an A320 family craft.

Boeing is loathe to go ahead with the 717 upgrade - the 300, out of fear of eating "real Boeing" aircarft sales, but they need to get over that quick. ATA wants the product - very, very much - and the hesitation is giving Airbus the opportunity to slam the A318 into the market in such a way as to kill the 717 product entirely.

Boeing still has the mentality of "You want red roses? How about these tulips instead?" while Airbus is taking out its pink roses and saying, "We got roses."

Airbus, I think, will price the product in such a way as to make both the 717 and the stretch RJ's uneconomical both on a purchase and resale basis. They will likely also get guarantees on engine maintenance pricing and other odds and sods so as to make the operating advantage of the Boeing look less important.

MSN,
Love you analagy of roses and tulips.

Couldn't have said it better...

LH and Bombardier have had a long term relationship with the CRJ100/200. From their website LH operates over 50 CRJ100/200/700 jets.

In fact Bombardier was very much hoping to secure LH as a big customer for the BRJ-X program.... But LH went with Fairchild-Dornier. Now that FD is no more Bombardier has the opportunity to go back to LH...

You're absolutely right on the RJ being cheaper than the A318 or B717 when it comes to cockpit salaries... It will likely be cheaper to oeprate when it comes fuel as it is a lighter aircraft..

Operation savings will be great when it comes to the RJ when compared to the narrow body aircraft of both Boeing and Airbus.

I am also interested in what AC will likely do with regards to the 7 B744s???

What are they going to replace them with? A340-600s?

KLM seems to be a fan of them - for cargo.

If the Airbus folks push the A318 hard enough to get it in, you can be sure that Boeing will try very hard to place 777 product, with some "intent" to look at 7E7 once they are cleared for pre-sale commitments. Air Canada would need to through something Boeing's way to keep Airbus from slacking off once it totally installed the A320 family.

It's interesting that Bombardier sniffed at and then walked away from taking over the Fairchild Dornier product. That sends a very strong signal that LH was not willing to pay more for a "German solution", and puts the focus on whether Embraer could somehow break in, but that is such a long shot right now. The whole program is in trouble - those 30 airframes that were to go to Swiss were a big part of the order book, and there's not much more to go on.

I would still consider the A318 a "widebody" in that it is a 3+3, versus the 717 which is 3+2 and the RJ's at 2+2. I know it's still a single aisle plane, but the perceived passenger comfort is another factor. Germans do not like the cramped storage bin space!

MSN,
I think Boeing will likely push the B777s to AC... But I doubt AC can afford to bite.

I did dig around have heard that AC has options on 8 airframes from Airbus... Which could be A330-300/A340-300/A340-500/A340-600. ILFC also has orders for more A340-500s and A340-600s. These may be needed for replacements.

The B767-300ER will likely remain in the AC fleet for atleast another 5 years. AC does lover their B767-300ERs...

I was looking at the AC fleet of Bae 146s, B732s and B744s. They number close to 40.

10 B732s for Zip

~15 B732s for AC Jetz, AC Mainline and Tango

10 Bae 146

3 B747-400 Combi

3/4 B747-400s (Not sure if it is 4 as one aircraft was supposed to return in March)