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AC increases YYC-LHR, decreases YEG-LHR for S15

AC increases YYC-LHR, decreases YEG-LHR for S15

Old Feb 11, 15, 10:49 pm
  #91  
 
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Originally Posted by winnipegrev View Post
To be fair, I think they know exactly who the clientele is - how many 35/50/75/100Ks there are who are based in YEG, fly in/out of YEG, their fare classes purchased, yield of YEG pax vs. YYC/anywhere else, and average spend/CPM of each annually.

In fact no one would have the amount of data AC does on the full range of travelers/clientele who use YEG. No one like WS, WG etc without a business class product can see what the demand really is. AC's data set would be most complete, much more than even EIA would have access to.

If AC figured that the yields were even $0.01/flight better than they think a 2nd YYCLHR will be, you can bet they would have left the LHR flight in YEG. The good news is they think that decent yield travelers are going enough YEG-YVR/YUL/YYZ to expand service to those cities.
Hate to break this to you, only the YEG-YvR-SYD crowd use AC in big way, Going other way If YEG - LHR not there, well it's MSP, IAH, ORD etc then on to EU,Middle East , Russia, etc I know more UA, Delta , BA , AA FF out of YEG then AC . Why do you think YEG transborder traffic is so high ? All tourist, hardly

AC is chasing vacation and head office crowd out of YYC, does not have a clue or seem to care about the non-white collar Buisness traveler, their loss.

After being SE in 2014, I am down to 35K, in 2015, but traveling again, probably walk away from AC , too much a PITA to fly on them out of YEG, especially to USA
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Old Feb 11, 15, 11:07 pm
  #92  
 
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Originally Posted by xLuther View Post
Hate to break this to you, only the YEG-YvR-SYD crowd use AC in big way, Going other way If YEG - LHR not there, well it's MSP, IAH, ORD etc then on to EU,Middle East , Russia, etc I know more UA, Delta , BA , AA FF out of YEG then AC . Why do you think YEG transborder traffic is so high ? All tourist, hardly

AC is chasing vacation and head office crowd out of YYC, does not have a clue or seem to care about the non-white collar Buisness traveler, their loss.

After being SE in 2014, I am down to 35K, in 2015, but traveling again, probably walk away from AC , too much a PITA to fly on them out of YEG, especially to USA
But they do have the data, you have to agree with me on that. I'd assume any decision AC, WS make in regards to YEG is pretty logical since they both have been serving it long enough and the technology exists to accurately see any segment of the market.

And heavy SYD connections aren't unique to YEG. It isn't unusual to even have ~10-15 YWG connections in my experience (made an announcement several times for doc check immediately after getting off YWGYVR, so I can see how many hang around). Even so, heavy SYD cxn would make sense for AC expanding YEGYVR service, still irrelevant to LHR.

I may not be FT-level paranoid but I don't think AC would can YEGLHR if it was a success. We know LFs aren't always strong (easy upgrade) so unless AC wants to lower prices to fill its planes, it won't be able to (the 763 product is quite decent). They wouldn't reduce a successful route to move assets to a riskier one.
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Old Feb 11, 15, 11:29 pm
  #93  
 
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Originally Posted by winnipegrev View Post
...I think they know exactly who the clientele is ....
Absolutely:
Air Canada knows intimately who (by postal code), what (by fare type and dollar), where (by origin destination and connecting point) and why passengers travel.
They make their decisions based on cold-hard facts, not by how many luggage tags they see in a holdroom.

Originally Posted by xLuther View Post
Hate to break this to you,
Well, I hate to break this to....ah, you know what I mean.

Last edited by tcook052; Feb 11, 15 at 11:50 pm
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Old Feb 12, 15, 3:09 pm
  #94  
 
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This is basically just a re-tread of the last YEG thread.
At the end of the day, if the sentiment of YEG passengers is aligned the the local EDM posters here, EIAA is doing a great job - If the broader exYEG community honestly believe the stuff posted here, that's really all that matters.
Edmontonians can bullsh!t their friends and I'll bullsh!t mine, but let's not bullsh!t each other. AC does not cut profitable flying (or forecasted profitable flying), so let's park that nonsense.
AC know they're at a cost and cabin configuration disadvantage vs KLM. AC know the pax numbers exYEG are going down, likely significant. Looks like they're getting out of dodge knowing they'll take their AP/*A chasers with them via YYC/YYZ

The KLM-YEG situation will be one worth following closely. If anyone is able to find out the deal between KLM and EIAA, please post what you can - specifically, Has EIAA guaranteed performance minimums on the route or simply provided reduced operating costs and free ad/marketing. Someone is going to take a haircut on this one, IMO of course
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Old Feb 12, 15, 3:21 pm
  #95  
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
The KLM-YEG situation will be one worth following closely. If anyone is able to find out the deal between KLM and EIAA, please post what you can - specifically, Has EIAA guaranteed performance minimums on the route or simply provided reduced operating costs and free ad/marketing. Someone is going to take a haircut on this one, IMO of course
Meh, AC likely benefited from the same arrangement so why pretend it's only unfair when airports strike the same deal with other airlines?
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Old Feb 12, 15, 3:41 pm
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Originally Posted by upgradesecret View Post
Absolutely:
Air Canada knows intimately who (by postal code), what (by fare type and dollar), where (by origin destination and connecting point) and why passengers travel.
They make their decisions based on cold-hard facts, not by how many luggage tags they see in a holdroom.



Well, I hate to break this to....ah, you know what I mean.
How exactly does AC know this, if the person does not fly on AC or other *A carriers ? I hate to break this to you but AC is declining carrier out of YEG.

Their actions continue to reduce their market intelligence, they can subtract their passenger count from totals. But Westjet, AA, Delta, Horizon, FI, and soon KLM are not telling AC where those passengers are going or transiting to.

We all know how AC feels about YEG market, the clearly don't understand it and everyday they have less accurate market intelligence about it. They made the choice, I wish them good luck, I just will be very selective in using them in the future.
I woudl say my view is the majority view in YEG as well.

Last edited by xLuther; Feb 12, 15 at 3:50 pm
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Old Feb 12, 15, 4:48 pm
  #97  
 
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Originally Posted by xLuther View Post
How exactly does AC know this
The GDS systems sell it to them and every other airline that comes up with the money. It is not a straight number but the data provided can be massaged by talented statisticians to replicate what each airline reported in the prior period and then bumped up by changing market conditions.

All of the major carriers do this.
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Old Feb 12, 15, 6:03 pm
  #98  
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Originally Posted by xLuther View Post
How exactly does AC know this, if the person does not fly on AC or other *A carriers ? I hate to break this to you but AC is declining carrier out of YEG.
their passenger count from totals. But Westjet, AA, Delta, Horizon, FI, and
Their actions continue to reduce their market intelligence, they can subtract soon KLM are not telling AC where those passengers are going or transiting to.

We all know how AC feels about YEG market, the clearly don't understand it and everyday they have less accurate market intelligence about it. They made the choice, I wish them good luck, I just will be very selective in using them in the future.
I woudl say my view is the majority view in YEG as well.
All I know, YEG-LHR is way easier to upgrade than YYC-LHR. If I fly with a non SE, they always want to fly out of YEG because they get upgraded 100% of the time. Looking at the two cities airports, YYC is closer to YYZ and YEG is closer to YWG. Sorry YEG
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Old Feb 12, 15, 6:43 pm
  #99  
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
This is basically just a re-tread of the last YEG thread.
At the end of the day, if the sentiment of YEG passengers is aligned the the local EDM posters here, EIAA is doing a great job - If the broader exYEG community honestly believe the stuff posted here, that's really all that matters.
Edmontonians can bullsh!t their friends and I'll bullsh!t mine, but let's not bullsh!t each other. AC does not cut profitable flying (or forecasted profitable flying), so let's park that nonsense.
AC know they're at a cost and cabin configuration disadvantage vs KLM. AC know the pax numbers exYEG are going down, likely significant. Looks like they're getting out of dodge knowing they'll take their AP/*A chasers with them via YYC/YYZ

The KLM-YEG situation will be one worth following closely. If anyone is able to find out the deal between KLM and EIAA, please post what you can - specifically, Has EIAA guaranteed performance minimums on the route or simply provided reduced operating costs and free ad/marketing. Someone is going to take a haircut on this one, IMO of course
Well I agree with you but do not like being lumped in with people in Edmonton and EIAA that hVe a hate on for AC and think they are sitting in their ivory cockpit scheming to screw YEG.

AC has the data and makes their decisions on the best places to maximize revenue, that is what businesses do!

EIAA makes deals with carriers, and likely provides millions of dollars in subsidies both in cash and no fees. They do not disclose this, and do not answer questions in this regard (depending value they could be offside IFRS disclosure rules). I hope they tie this to performance of the carriers but have doubts (I wonder if United repaid subsidies after cancelling EWR).
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Old Feb 12, 15, 7:29 pm
  #100  
 
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
Edmontonians can bullsh!t their friends and I'll bullsh!t mine, but let's not bullsh!t each other. AC does not cut profitable flying (or forecasted profitable flying), so let's park that nonsense.
Well, if you think about it, AC reducing service on this route might actually be a good thing. Its abrupt departure paved the way both for KL's entry and FI's expansion. More service is a good thing, no matter which way you look at it - and there has been an expansion in international flights.

FWIW, AC may not cut profitable flying, but its threshold for what constitutes profitable flying is, by the looks of it, a lot higher than it is for other carriers. Its never been a particularly well-run company (Carriers all around the world would give an arm and a leg for the kind of protection and government guarantees AC receives).

The cost cutting exercise has is primarily focused on degrading the product, primarily in Y. That makes it an easy target for carriers like KL and FI, which, judging by their respective J products, aren't as dependent on high yield premium traffic as AC is. AC's J product may be far superior to those carriers (albeit not superior enough to earn the premium AC wants to charge for it), but its Y product, on a value for money basis ...probably not.
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Old Feb 12, 15, 7:34 pm
  #101  
 
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Originally Posted by 7E7 View Post
EIAA makes deals with carriers, and likely provides millions of dollars in subsidies both in cash and no fees. They do not disclose this, and do not answer questions in this regard (depending value they could be offside IFRS disclosure rules). I hope they tie this to performance of the carriers but have doubts (I wonder if United repaid subsidies after cancelling EWR).
The cost of subsidies are invariably passed on to pax, so I doubt they really care how the carriers perform; its AC and WS pax (as the primary users of the airport) who will largely be financing EIAA's subsidies. AC isn't going to walk away from the domestic market and hand it over to WS... so EIAA has the upper hand.

On the other hand, most airlines get volume discounts at their hubs, so KL is only really at an advantage against AC in places like YEG.
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Old Feb 12, 15, 7:50 pm
  #102  
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Originally Posted by xLuther View Post
Except one important factor, a very large group of those "blue collar " workers also travel the world working those rigs,/production platforms etc Canadians go where Americans can't or won't in the upstream O&G .

The number of people who live the 30 days in , 30 out life is Not something most people realize. As an example, the high number of AC SE mostly out of YEG who transit YVR on their way to SYD and then on to Western Australia and Papua NG is why YVR-SYD is a tough upgrade. Last December I was on my way to SYD, in MLL I counted over 20, 1/2 waiting for thier upgrades. ( I knew a few of them) lucky for me I was on a paid Z fare.

Going the other way I know one guy who has been doing either YEG-LHR- on or YEG-YYZ-ZRH on to spots in Middle East and Indian ocean for over 25 years 30 in 30 out. Another customer of mine, her boyfriend doing 30 in 30 out in Russia right now. No he does not fly through YYC , most avoid it like the plague

Why do you think UA flys A320 or 737 twice a day YEG-IAH, it's highly leveraged by guys going to IAH and on for work related to up stream O&G, the tourists are a minority in total numbers

AC has no concept of the clientele out of YEG, it shows in thier choices on how service YEG
as well as for YEGIAH, connections to the eastern USA/Mexico/South America...
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Old Feb 23, 15, 7:30 am
  #103  
 
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Originally Posted by yulred View Post
Yes, generally speaking, I think its undersupplied. It might be well-supplied on some routes, but by and large, its undersupplied.
Another pull down from a foreign carrier serving Canada.
US (AA) have cut YOWCLT. There goes another 18,000 seats. FFS

I don't want to give AC more credit than they deserve but Ottawa/Gatineau > South Florida is a (relatively) huge market. CLT feeds Southeast USA. AC extends YOWFLL year-round, goes double-daily on some days .... And now we get the cancellation of YOWCLT. Hard to argue US/AA's decision to cut was not heavily impacted by AC.

In the last 18 months, AA (and US) have pulled over 60,000 annual seats out of Ottawa market. This "undersupplied" talk needs to go away
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Old Feb 23, 15, 7:46 am
  #104  
 
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
Another pull down from a foreign carrier serving Canada.
US (AA) have cut YOWCLT. There goes another 18,000 seats. FFS

I don't want to give AC more credit than they deserve but Ottawa/Gatineau > South Florida is a (relatively) huge market. CLT feeds Southeast USA. AC extends YOWFLL year-round, goes double-daily on some days .... And now we get the cancellation of YOWCLT. Hard to argue US/AA's decision to cut was not heavily impacted by AC.

In the last 18 months, AA (and US) have pulled over 60,000 annual seats out of Ottawa market. This "undersupplied" talk needs to go away
The US carriers are at a disadvantage to AC now - while both have to buy fuel in US dollars, AC gets revenue from US Pax in USD that covers a substantial portion of that. Unfortunately US carriers get Canadian revenues in CAD.

So when it comes to employees AC can augment its fuel bill with USD and pay its crews and staff in CAD. The US airlines can pay for nothing in CAD. Air Canada's relative cost of labour (biggest airline expense) is dropping, while it may not have the same fuel gains as the US carriers it has the effect of a broad across the board cost cut at AC.

And if you don't think this is a factor take a look at when the US carriers really started flying to all of the cities in Canada (like YQR and YXE) - it was when the Canadian dollar was much closer to par in a better economy. If you look across the board the US carriers are on retreat. YHZ->ORD is done for example... I never flew on it when it wasn't full... Me thinks this is just the beginning.

Also please spare us the AC is cutting capacity in Edmonton crap - Its cutting LHR on the whole it will deploy something like 15% (the stat was posted somewhere from the horses mouth in a press release/news piece) more seats to the airport this year. Thats not a cut.

Personally I think once there are 787-8s to spare Edmonton will get LHR back for the summer. The higher density configuration will give them back a cost advantage of KLM -AirFrance, HD has allowed them to be more aggressive with KLM-AF in the east.
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Old Feb 23, 15, 7:59 am
  #105  
 
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Originally Posted by upgradesecret View Post
The GDS systems sell it to them and every other airline that comes up with the money. It is not a straight number but the data provided can be massaged by talented statisticians to replicate what each airline reported in the prior period and then bumped up by changing market conditions.

All of the major carriers do this.
Major carriers do...... AC on other hand well data handling and AC is interesting, get back to me when they show signs of handling their internal data properly, updated their website or produced a proper app for smart phones that accesses something as simple as say booking data properly
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