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Air Canada Selects Boeing 737 MAX to Renew Mainline Narrowbody Fleet

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Old Sep 19, 2017, 10:25 am
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Last edit by: 24left
Jan 18 2021 TC issues Airworthiness Directive for the 737 MAX
Link to post https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32976892-post4096.html

Cabin photos

Post 976 https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/29534462-post976.html
Post 1300 https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/29780203-post1300.html

Cabin Layout

Interior Specs can be found here https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/fly/onboard/fleet.html







- Window seats may feel narrower to come as the armrests are placed "into" the "curvature" of the cabin.
- Seats with no windows feel even more narrower as there is no space created by the curvature of window.
- All bulkhead seats have very limited legroom.
- Seats 15A, 16A, 16F, 17A and 17F have limited windows.
- Exit rows 19 and 20 have more legroom than regular preferred seats.

Routes

The 737 MAX is designated to replace the A320-series. Based on announcements and schedule updates, the following specific routes will be operated by the 737 MAX in future:

YYZ-LAX (periodic flights)
YYZ-SNN (new route)
YUL-DUB (new route)
YYZ/YUL-KEF (replacing Rouge A319)
YYT-LHR (replacing Mainline A319)
YHZ-LHR (replacing Mainline B767)
Hawaii Routes YVR/YYC (replacing Rouge B767)
Many domestic trunk routes (YYZ, YVR, YUL, YYC) now operated by 7M8, replacing A320 family
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Air Canada Selects Boeing 737 MAX to Renew Mainline Narrowbody Fleet

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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:03 am
  #1711  
 
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So personally, what I'm interested in now is whether the MAX is statistically safer than other aircraft. Two crashes in ~22 months of operation seems like a lot.

I can't seem to find a good source for how many total flights the 737 MAX fleet has operated -- does anyone have a figure for this? In lieu of which, if I use some very, very handwavy assumptions and some cocktail napkin math...
  • Boeing has delivered 350 of these aircraft so far.
  • First delivery was 16 May 2017, giving about 22 months in service so far.
  • Possibly the biggest unknown: how many flights per day for these aircraft? I think the industry average for narrowbodies is about 4, with operators like Southwest being a bit above 5. Say 4.5?
  • And then if we assume deliveries were perfectly linear (ha ha), we get...

350 aircraft * 22 months * 30 days/month * 4.5 flts/day * 0.50 delivery curve = 519,750 flights ever operated by a 737 MAX in total.

2 fatal hull loss accidents / .519750 million flights so far = 3.85 fatal hull loss accidents per million takeoffs.

Looking at this statistical report assembled by Boeing for 1959-2017, this puts the 737 MAX roughly on par with the DC-8, better than the 707 & 720, but notably worse than the DC-9 and BAC 1-11, with many of the common aircraft still in service being well down the list.

http://www.boeing.com/resources/boei...df/statsum.pdf

Take this with somewhere between a bucket and a barrel of salt in lieu of the assumptions made and the (thankfully) small sample sizes involved when it comes to airliner crashes.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:07 am
  #1712  
 
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Royal Air Maroc and Ethiopian have also now grounded their MAXs, and the Indonesian ombudsman is demanding same.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:07 am
  #1713  
 
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Originally Posted by yyz_atc_qq
CEO Alex, if Transport Canada (the regulator in this country) hasn't decreed grounding the aircraft, why do you feel they "MUST". What about the other operators that fall under TC's pervue? Do you think TC should ban (even temporarily) all B38M operations in Canada?
Originally Posted by AC7E7
You can’t just ground 24 aircraft without a contingency (unless there is an imminent danger). Despite the panic, there is no imminent danger. However, I believe more groundings are inevitable, even if the airlines choose to do so simply to demonstrate their concern publicly, and pressure Boeing.

In AC’s case, if they decide to ground the 737s, they need to reposition A32X aircraft, cancel some flights, add some wide body capacity to cover some of those flights (such as Vancouver - Hawaii Max flights ). 24 aircraft out of the fleet will have a significant impact on operations.

I am certain Air Canada has just about finalized their plans. I believe WestJet has done the same. I suspect both AC and WJ will announce the groundings within hours of each other (if they choose to do so).
Further to the 2 posts above, I'd be very surprised if either AC or WS grounded their aircraft without a directive from Transport Canada, especially AC. AFAIK AC now flies the Max on several European routes. As of now, there is no reason to ground aircraft other than speculation (neither Canada, FAA or EU have deemed the aircraft unsafe). I suspect that cancelling flights "out of an abundance of caution" alone won't hold up against the rash of EU 261 (not sure if that is the right number) claims that would likely be filed if AC simply cancelled all ex-EU Max flights within 2 weeks of any announcement. Governmental agency directive/recommendation, however, would tie AC/WS hands an possibly get them off the hook on a bunch of compensation (although the compensation would be a small cost compared to all the other costs that would be incurred due to a voluntary grounding).
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:20 am
  #1714  
 
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Originally Posted by KenHamer
My understanding is that the nature of technology on Airbus equipment is more likeky to do that than on Boeing.

There is a "Mayday" episode called "Who's in Contol?" detailing several instances of the plane overiding the pilot.
The "Who's in Control" episode is desctibing the TK1951 crash at AMS. That was a 737-800.
The myth about the A320's automation causing the crash of AF296 at LFGB has been debunked many times.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:22 am
  #1715  
 
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Another possibility is that the potentially-offending MCAS system gets disabled, instead of a full grounding... But a key issue (from the first crash at least) seems to be pilot training. Lion Air’s pilots didn’t know how to deal with the MCAS fault, but perhaps AC’s pilots have received the appropriate training... Will be interesting to hear if the Ethiopian crash involves MCAS, and if so, if the pilots had been trained on that issue.

(I’m currently in SXM, having arrived on a Max, with my return flight to YYZ coming up on a Max...)
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:24 am
  #1716  
 
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Can the MCAS on AC's Boeing 737MAX8 be locked "off" by pilots?

While many of us on here are very understandably preoccupied and concerned about two major accidents with this Boeing model and are worried simply because, depending on what route we must fly, there is no alternative.

We do not know if any AC pilots experienced problems with the MCAS system attempting to override their control inputs but it is a potential situation which is worrying.

It would be nice for peace of mind to know that AC crew are able to (and permitted by management operating rules!) to disconnect and completely lock-out MCAS during regular operations.

This problem with automatic controls overriding pilots is nothing new, although we might have hoped Boeing could have benefitted by known examples!
In June 1988 the then relatively new Airbus A320-211 during a low fly-past at an air show could not be pulled up to climb away and flew into a forest at the field perimeter.

Let's just hope that this problem can be rectified and that yet another design deficiency does not end up being blamed upon unfortunate aircrew!
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:32 am
  #1717  
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Originally Posted by WildcatYXU
The "Who's in Control" episode is desctibing the TK1951 crash at AMS. That was a 737-800.
The myth about the A320's automation causing the crash of AF296 at LFGB has been debunked many times.
Well crap, you're right (about the episode.) I will have to hunt (later) for the episode that deals with (I think) 5 different cases where pilots "fought" with planes. It was not specific to Airbus.

But I have seen lots of claims and reports about how Airbus was more agressive in pursuing fly-by-wire and flight automation than Boeing.

I am not able to state whether or not that is a good thing.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:37 am
  #1718  
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Originally Posted by TemboOne
In June 1988 the then relatively new Airbus A320-211 during a low fly-past at an air show could not be pulled up to climb away and flew into a forest at the field perimeter.
Could not be pulled up due to lack of airspeed, sure. But my understanding was this was entirely pilot-error.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:38 am
  #1719  
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Originally Posted by sram
That basically constitutes the entire AC fleet. Every FBW commercial aircraft today is designed to override pilots if it determines un-safe commands. AF447 is a prime example. We also don't know if the pilots attempted to over-ride the FMS, that is speculation. In most cases the information provided to pilots is what typically leads to errors and crashs whereby either the information is erroneous, or the pilots mis-interpret the data, or the pilots are too slow to respond.
That statement is quite misleading. And in the case of AF447, completely wrong. The computer had returned controls to the pilots who did the very opposite of what was required to get out of the stall. That was decidedly not the computer.In the MCAS issue, pilots find themselves fighting the computer. And disabling it first would entail a proper diagnosis and may not be obvious. Not the same as having the computer in the loop as in the AB case, and in most modern Boeing, which arguably does not include the max...
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:45 am
  #1720  
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Originally Posted by sweden05
Another possibility is that the potentially-offending MCAS system gets disabled, instead of a full grounding... But a key issue (from the first crash at least) seems to be pilot training. Lion Air’s pilots didn’t know how to deal with the MCAS fault, but perhaps AC’s pilots have received the appropriate training... Will be interesting to hear if the Ethiopian crash involves MCAS, and if so, if the pilots had been trained on that issue.
The MCAS was put in place for a reason. I don't believe they are allowed to fly with it disabled.
Originally Posted by TemboOne

It would be nice for peace of mind to know that AC crew are able to (and permitted by management operating rules!) to disconnect and completely lock-out MCAS during regular operations.

This problem with automatic controls overriding pilots is nothing new, although we might have hoped Boeing could have benefitted by known examples!
In June 1988 the then relatively new Airbus A320-211 during a low fly-past at an air show could not be pulled up to climb away and flew into a forest at the field perimeter.
About the MCAS, it's there to avoid the engines pushing the nose up in certain configurations where the plane is unstable because the smallish vertical stabilizer is too weak to counterbalance the torque (with horizontal axis about the mass center) due to engine thrust. So disabling the MCAS wqould make the plane more unsafe, not less.As cow said, the issue of the 320 in 1988 was that they let the engines idle, and engines take a while to spool up until they develop much thrust. More a case of overreliance on the protection afforded by the computers than anything else. Perhaps too much AB spin, but that's a different story, the "concierge" thing...
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:49 am
  #1721  
 
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Originally Posted by shadowspar

2 fatal hull loss accidents / .519750 million flights so far = 3.85 fatal hull loss accidents per million takeoffs.
https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/c...-1958-2017.pdf

If we look at this Airbus document on aircraft safety and accident rates, a 4th generation plane (roughly those designed after 1988) have hull loss rates of 0.18 per million flight cycles. Your math looks pretty good, but it is still over 20 times higher rate than should be expected for this type of aircraft. It's much higher than third generation aircraft at 0.54 hull loss per million flight cycles. Third generation are things like A300, 737 classic, 757.
Even the second generation ( 737-100, DC-9, L-1011, 747-100) reached a minimum in the late 80's of 1.0 loss per million flights before increasing as the aircraft aged and moved to lower tier operators.

If your math is reasonable, the 7M8 is back to a loss rate that hasn't been seen since the early 1960's. For a design that is an evolution of a proven design, this is an unacceptably regressive step. I would expect a new aircraft to be better than a 707, Comet, Trident or VC-10.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 9:53 am
  #1722  
 
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Originally Posted by TemboOne
We do not know if any AC pilots experienced problems with the MCAS system attempting to override their control inputs but it is a potential situation which is worrying.

It would be nice for peace of mind to know that AC crew are able to (and permitted by management operating rules!) to disconnect and completely lock-out MCAS during regular operations.
While we don't know if the MCAS was an issue in this crash, we also don't know how training is handled with "new" pilots.

My (limited) understanding is that Boeing sold this "new" aircraft as being basically the same as the "old" aircraft, and that limited training was required to be able to fly the Max (for existing 737 pilots). Just because the aircraft was new to AC, it doesn't mean that the training AC pilots received was any different than what is provided to previous 737 operators; it is entirely possible that AC pilots are/were as completely unaware of MCAS, etc. as other 737 pilots.

If pilot training with regards to MCAS is found to be a root cause of this crash, I wouldn't be surprised if FAA/EU/TC/etc. change the categorization of this aircraft to be a new "type" (or whatever the technical term is) that is to be treated completely differently than the other 737's in existence (which AFAIK is one of the reasons MCAS exists - but definitely not the only reason - to provide commonality with other 737's).
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 10:04 am
  #1723  
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As my father dropped me off at YYZ this morning, his parting words were "Don't get on any 737 Maxs".
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 10:16 am
  #1724  
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Originally Posted by canadiancow
Could not be pulled up due to lack of airspeed, sure. But my understanding was this was entirely pilot-error.
Yes, It was 100% pilot error. He was show boating and it cost him.
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Old Mar 11, 2019, 11:07 am
  #1725  
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Last edited by skybluesea; Dec 31, 2020 at 10:55 am
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