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Aer Lingus IAG take over bid [Master Thread]

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Old Sep 28, 2016, 2:57 pm
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Aer Lingus takeover by IAG

Executive summary: Rumours of IAG (International Consolidated Airlines Group, British Airways, IAG Cargo, Iberia and Vueling - Link to Wikipedia article) interest in acquiring EI strengthened in December 2014, with refusals and objections by then 29% owner Ryanair, EI Board of Directors and some Irish government leaders (a 25% stake was held by the Irish government).

Aer Lingus, currently headed by CEO Stephen Kavanagh, was acquired by IAG for €1.36bn in 2015; IAG took full control of Aer Lingus on 02 Sep 2015.

Aer Lingus is working to join the oneworld airline alliance and plans to expand service to the U.S. later this year and next, CEO Stephen Kavanagh said Wednesday.

...Aer Lingus will strive to join the oneworld alliance that counts British Airways and American Airlines among its founding members.

“There are some advantages to joining the big-boys’ club,” Kavanagh said. While Avios will be a competitive tool, “ultimately, we believe that will result in our joining again oneworld,” he said.

Link
to USA Today article - 18 May 2016
Aer Lingus is on target to join the OneWorld alliance next year (2017), when it should also be able to benefit from BA's joint venture with American Airlines.

"The next big integration issue will be Aer Lingus coming into the joint business on the transatlantic. That will require some systems changes," said (IAG CEO) Mr Walsh.

Link to article in Independent - 30 Apr 2016
On 26 May 2015, after months of negotiations on a possible IAG takeover, the Irish government agreed to sell its 25% stake in the company. Ryanair retained a 30% stake in Aer Lingus which it agreed to sell to IAG on 10 July 2015 for €2.55 per share. In August 2015, Aer Lingus' shareholders officially accepted IAG's takeover offer. IAG subsequently assumed control of Aer Lingus on 2 September 2015.

Link to Wikipedia article about Aer Lingus
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Aer Lingus IAG take over bid [Master Thread]

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Old Feb 10, 2015, 8:03 am
  #151  
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IAG willing to improve Aer Lingus commitments - reports

Originally Posted by RTE News
IAG would consider improving commitments made last week to help win Government backing for a planned offer for Aer Lingus, according to reports from Bloomberg.

Should the Government make additional demands, then IAG is open to revising its proposal, people familiar with the situation said.
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Old Feb 10, 2015, 10:10 am
  #152  
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Originally Posted by bounty
hear hear from a lapsed FTer, thanks for some great posts irishguy and MeltingAlf
Well said! Thoughtful and credible analyses about these issues are sometimes superseded by emotions and upset over potential change on FT; here, they're obviously not. Thank you, irishguy28 and MeltingAlf.
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Old Feb 10, 2015, 12:44 pm
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At this point I reckon IAG's willingness to negotiate annoys the government because it would be a better political victory for them if they could reject the "Brits"' offer outright and look like defenders of the Irish working man. If IAG makes major concessions, they're moving more into territory where the trade unions and other leftists may still furiously oppose it but the rest of the people don't see what the fuss is about. So either way you piss off a lot of people.
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Old Feb 11, 2015, 7:06 pm
  #154  
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Originally Posted by The Irish Times
International Consolidated Airlines Group is “nowhere near” walking away from its €1.36 billion bid to buy Aer Lingus, according to its Irish chief executive Willie Walsh.
Mr Walsh stressed yesterday that IAG, which owns British Airways and Spanish airlines, Iberia and Vueling, is not willing to allow the political storm that has blown up since it initially approached Aer Lingus in December to scupper any deal.

Originally Posted by The Irish Times

Aer Lingus will grow both its transatlantic business and its fleet if International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) succeeds in taking over the Irish carrier, according to its suitor’s chief executive, Willie Walsh.


<snip>

In 2014, 2.1 million passengers flew between Dublin and North America, around one- third of them connected from airports elsewhere in Europe, particularly Britain.
I believe that last figure actually refers to EI's passengers carried between DUB, ORK, SNN and LHR - not all passengers between DUB and North America (which was given as 1.362 million for the year in the Dec 2014 traffic update)

Last edited by irishguy28; Feb 11, 2015 at 7:21 pm
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Old Feb 13, 2015, 11:53 pm
  #155  
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Originally Posted by Financial Times
“The government will really struggle to identify reasons not to support this deal,” said David Holohan, head of research at Merrion Stockbrokers. “There is no doubt that as time goes on the momentum for the deal is increasing.”

However, the government has yet to make a decision on its stance, and may delay doing so until a formal offer by IAG for Aer Lingus is made and after EU competition regulators have given their view. This could take several more weeks, said people familiar with the deal.
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Old Feb 14, 2015, 1:25 am
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Originally Posted by bounty
hear hear from a lapsed FTer, thanks for some great posts irishguy and MeltingAlf
Originally Posted by JDiver
Well said! Thoughtful and credible analyses about these issues are sometimes superseded by emotions and upset over potential change on FT; here, they're obviously not. Thank you, irishguy28 and MeltingAlf.


You people are too kind! While I do understand the fact that people do get upset when something changes (just look at the BAEC changes thread!) - most such things are done with a sound reason from a business perspective. We might not like it but hey, someone's got to be the voice of reason.

It seems however that the IAG bid for EI has been placed on the backburner, at least for now. Not IAG's fault, though. But it'll probably take months, if not years for the deal to go through judging from the opposition the Irish parties and MOL is giving - if it ever happens.
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Old Feb 14, 2015, 10:30 am
  #157  
 
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Aer Lingus IAG take over bid [Master Thread]

Such a shame. You don't believe WW was sincere when he said IAG was nowhere near ready to walk away??

Is it unreasonable to think IAG would or could do a deal absent the buy-in (or sell-out, depending on your perspective!) of the Irish government?
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Old Feb 14, 2015, 12:47 pm
  #158  
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The short-sightedness of some of our political folk really bugs me. What is IAG really buying here? It is buying the brand name and a lot of good will from the Irish community, mainly in the US.

IAG could run the entire operation without EI if they wanted to. IMHO EI would have a good future with IAG, yes there will be some job losses but they will be minor in a areas of overlap in admin (loyalty for example, though one can't imagine EI having a lot of staff in the Gold Circle department).

Come the next SARS, oil shock or God forbid terrorist attack and EI has a much better chance at surviving within IAG than alone. The existing shareholding won't be able to keep it afloat. Remember Malev, Cyprus Air, Swiss Air, Sabena?
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Old Feb 15, 2015, 4:57 am
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My BA Board posting (Mods - coud we link the parrallel threads):

The navel gazing nature of Irish politics means that no-one's spotted the overal set of drivers


Slots: IAG logically would reassign the BA ("British") LHR-DUB slots rather than the EI slots. WW keeps his promise, IAG get room for maneouvre. Overall LHR-DUB connectivity drops but hey they're not "Irish" slots so that's ok.

Dublin as a hiub: IAG has focussed operations on LHR, with LGW being a leisure hub and GLA,EDI and MAN (I don't count Leeds - I think it is being used as a slot sitter) really being there for connecting feed.

EI provides an attractive means of adressing secondary locations for TATL services - presumably an early action of IAG after acquisition would be to bring EI into the Oneworld TATL JV. Good for Dublin.

No-one cares about secondary Irish locations like NOC. The only relevance is in the politics...
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Old Feb 15, 2015, 1:11 pm
  #160  
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Originally Posted by starflyergold
The short-sightedness of some of our political folk really bugs me. What is IAG really buying here? It is buying the brand name and a lot of good will from the Irish community, mainly in the US.

IAG could run the entire operation without EI if they wanted to. IMHO EI would have a good future with IAG, yes there will be some job losses but they will be minor in a areas of overlap in admin (loyalty for example, though one can't imagine EI having a lot of staff in the Gold Circle department).

Come the next SARS, oil shock or God forbid terrorist attack and EI has a much better chance at surviving within IAG than alone. The existing shareholding won't be able to keep it afloat. Remember Malev, Cyprus Air, Swiss Air, Sabena?
Willie Walsh just argued the buyout would actually create 500 jobs during his charm tour. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31455690

If they proceed as they're claiming they'd like to, this can connect the Continent to North America via DUB and relieve some of the London clog.

BBC, 13 February 2015 (in part):

Mr Walsh dismissed trade unions' allegations that there would be 1,200 job losses at Aer Lingus if the IAG offer were accepted by the Irish government.

He said, in fact, 500 jobs could be created, including new pilots, cabin crew, engineers and mechanics.
and, from EI:

In the statement, Aer Lingus offered more detail than its original recommendation, It said Ireland would become a hub for connections, while the deal would accelerate Aer Lingus's planned transatlantic growth and create new jobs.
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Old Feb 16, 2015, 1:20 am
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Willie Walsh just argued the buyout would actually create 500 jobs during his charm tour. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31455690

If they proceed as they're claiming they'd like to, this can connect the Continent to North America via DUB and relieve some of the London clog.



and, from EI:
An EI expansion would add jobs! :P I must say that number is lower than expected, but given IAG's method of doing things, they probably would be engaging on a major expansion while keeping recruitment as low as possible to increase cost savings and profit and in totality - profit margins.

I'm not sure why there is even opposition to the EI takeover other than national pride, parish politics as well as some kind of animosity to WW in general. To me, an EI takeover by IAG makes the most logical sense behind an AF redesign of their livery (given that their branding is now inconsistent with their tail )
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Old Feb 16, 2015, 6:11 am
  #162  
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Originally Posted by JDiver
Willie Walsh just argued the buyout would actually create 500 jobs during his charm tour. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31455690
Originally Posted by MeltingAlf
An EI expansion would add jobs!
An article in yesterday's Sindo raised an important point re the jobs: even if there is a net increase in employment, the timing, and the upfront job losses, will count against the TDs that vote it through...


Originally Posted by Sunday Independent
Politicians don't want to take a risk on anything resembling job losses, despite Walsh's very credible assurances that he would grow the airline and job numbers.

At least Walsh was honest in saying some administrative jobs would go, but highlighted the hundreds of new pilot, engineering and flight attendant jobs that would be created.

Losing 200 or 300 jobs that exist today (with votes attached) in order to create 500 other jobs that don't exist today (and don't have any votes attached) is not the sort of political mathematics that plays well in the year before an election.
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Old Feb 16, 2015, 11:08 am
  #163  
 
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No, I don't see the politions making a decision that will result in job losses.

I think the WW's remark, that there will be some job losses as a result of a successful buyout, pretty much put the nail in the coffin for the deal.
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Old Feb 24, 2015, 5:21 am
  #164  
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Aer Lingus 2014 results :

Aer Lingus, the airline which is currently the subject of a takeover bid by International Airlines Group, reported pre-tax losses of €111.5 million on Tuesday, as it reaffirmed its support for the IAG takeover and readied a voluntary redundancy programme. This compares with a profit of €39.6m for 2013.

Before an exceptional charge of €112.9m, which is related to the funding of the airline’s pension scheme, operating profit for the group rose to €72m, the highest since the financial crisis.

Revenues for the year to December 31st 2014 advanced by 9.2 per cent to €1.6 billion, as total passenger numbers surpassed 11 million for the first time in the airline’s history.

Average fare revenue per seat was € 98.93, up 9.4 per cent, as Aer Lingus’s long haul revenue grew by 28.4 per cent to € 490m, with passenger numbers up 20.6 per cent and load factor up 0.6 points to 83.7 per cent. Short haul performance was resilient in a highly competitive environment with average fare per seat up 2.5 per cent to € 69.60 on steady load factors. Short haul revenue in 2014 was € 791 million compared to € 789 million in the previous year.


http://www.irishtimes.com/business/t...ngus-1.2115145
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Old Feb 24, 2015, 8:43 am
  #165  
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Govt will not accept current Aer Lingus offer

Originally Posted by RTE
Minister for Transport Paschal Donohoe has said the information and commitments provided to date by International Airlines Group did not at present provide a basis on which the Government could accept the offer for Aer Lingus.....
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