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Aer Lingus IAG take over bid [Master Thread]

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Old Sep 28, 2016, 2:57 pm
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Aer Lingus takeover by IAG

Executive summary: Rumours of IAG (International Consolidated Airlines Group, British Airways, IAG Cargo, Iberia and Vueling - Link to Wikipedia article) interest in acquiring EI strengthened in December 2014, with refusals and objections by then 29% owner Ryanair, EI Board of Directors and some Irish government leaders (a 25% stake was held by the Irish government).

Aer Lingus, currently headed by CEO Stephen Kavanagh, was acquired by IAG for €1.36bn in 2015; IAG took full control of Aer Lingus on 02 Sep 2015.

Aer Lingus is working to join the oneworld airline alliance and plans to expand service to the U.S. later this year and next, CEO Stephen Kavanagh said Wednesday.

...Aer Lingus will strive to join the oneworld alliance that counts British Airways and American Airlines among its founding members.

“There are some advantages to joining the big-boys’ club,” Kavanagh said. While Avios will be a competitive tool, “ultimately, we believe that will result in our joining again oneworld,” he said.

Link
to USA Today article - 18 May 2016
Aer Lingus is on target to join the OneWorld alliance next year (2017), when it should also be able to benefit from BA's joint venture with American Airlines.

"The next big integration issue will be Aer Lingus coming into the joint business on the transatlantic. That will require some systems changes," said (IAG CEO) Mr Walsh.

Link to article in Independent - 30 Apr 2016
On 26 May 2015, after months of negotiations on a possible IAG takeover, the Irish government agreed to sell its 25% stake in the company. Ryanair retained a 30% stake in Aer Lingus which it agreed to sell to IAG on 10 July 2015 for €2.55 per share. In August 2015, Aer Lingus' shareholders officially accepted IAG's takeover offer. IAG subsequently assumed control of Aer Lingus on 2 September 2015.

Link to Wikipedia article about Aer Lingus
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Aer Lingus IAG take over bid [Master Thread]

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Old Jan 27, 2015, 2:06 pm
  #76  
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FF has already come out with some awful tripe about how "it is clear that the linkage from Knock, Cork and Shannon would be in jeopardy".
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Old Jan 27, 2015, 4:36 pm
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EI only seems to do three flights a day SNN/LHR - no flights LHR/NOC
Now seeing Facebook comments about how EI would be better if it was nationalised...

Last edited by londonbus; Jan 27, 2015 at 4:41 pm
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Old Jan 27, 2015, 6:12 pm
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And the showcase for how well state-owned transport works is Bus Eireann of course. A service that makes United Airlines look like a customer service fantasy.
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Old Jan 27, 2015, 7:21 pm
  #79  
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IMHO the LHR stance is way over rated. These days, compared to say 10 years ago, a lot more travellers actively avoid LHR as a connection point for a variety of reasons. There are more flights and more capacity to CDG, FRA, IST, AUH and DXB than ever before. BA surely want to retain feeder flights, it's in their own interest but may wish to divert some of their regional TATL pax to DUB rather than LHR.

SNN, ORK, and NOC (I can't believe we are having this conversation) are minor players and will always remain so. By all means if there is a market have some connectivity but let's get real about the spread of the Irish population.
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Old Jan 28, 2015, 12:08 am
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Originally Posted by starflyergold
IMHO the LHR stance is way over rated. These days, compared to say 10 years ago, a lot more travellers actively avoid LHR as a connection point for a variety of reasons. There are more flights and more capacity to CDG, FRA, IST, AUH and DXB than ever before.
But not quite so when you're originating your journey from here.

The capacity to those cities you mentioned pales, when compared to the capacity to LHR. In order for us to get onto the "worldwide network", LHR has always been the default launch point. Especially for those based near ORK & SNN, where there's little or no alternative. There's a huge percentage of transfer passengers on the DUB/ORK - LHR flights all connecting to the various far flung parts of the world.

Yes the EY & EK flights out of DUB are taking some of the Eastbound loads now, but by & large, anyone going anywhere, transfers through LHR. So access to LHR is hugely important to us here on this sodden green island of ours.
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Old Jan 28, 2015, 12:59 am
  #81  
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Originally Posted by londonbus
EI only seems to do three flights a day SNN/LHR - no flights LHR/NOC
Now seeing Facebook comments about how EI would be better if it was nationalised...
Hence the reference to "awful tripe". Although there are a couple of rotations NOC-LGW.

Unfortunately this will bring out all the anti-colonial types in force.
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Old Jan 28, 2015, 12:44 pm
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There's over 700,000 people in Co. Kerry/Cork/Waterford combined and that number is growing. That's ORK's market. While the expectation of TATL flights is fairly unrealistic (and based on SNN somehow having them), ORK naturally ought to be connected to the closest main hubs like pretty much every other regional airport in that type of market. It would be pretty ridiculous for the flag carrier not to serve the main hub of its alliance from more than one airport.

If you want to instead focus on DUB as a hub, maybe ORK-DUB flights can return under new management..I don't see why you couldn't run that as a RJ route.
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Old Jan 28, 2015, 1:44 pm
  #83  
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Originally Posted by Ber2dca
If you want to instead focus on DUB as a hub, maybe ORK-DUB flights can return under new management..I don't see why you couldn't run that as a RJ route.
I'm all for an influx of oneworld carriers at ORK - but I can't really see Royal Jordanian coming to operate Irish domestic services!
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Old Jan 30, 2015, 1:41 am
  #84  
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The Heathrow slots just got even more valuable...until this article, I'd only seen estimates in the range of €350m-€400m.

Originally Posted by The Irish Times
On the basis of the above estimates, they are worth between €770 million and €925 million in total, more than half the €1.36 billion that International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) is prepared to offer for all of Aer Lingus.

...

Last year, Heathrow traffic out of the three State-owned airports totalled 2.28 million, with Dublin accounting for the bulk of this with 1.65 million. Around one in three of them – 760,000 – were transferring to or from other international flights. Access to those connections is what concerns many of the opponents to the IAG deal.
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Old Jan 30, 2015, 6:26 am
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Originally Posted by irishguy28
The Heathrow slots just got even more valuable...until this article, I'd only seen estimates in the range of €350m-€400m.
I don't doubt Deloitte's estimates (despite the fact that they might be a bit on the high side).

However, given that Heathrow slots sales are more of a slot trade rather than an outright sale (allocate, trade with other airlines and pay difference or more), I suspect that some of the value is inherently locked in the slots shouldn't be part of a valuation of EI in a sale, and therefore Deloitte's valuation of the slots alone makes EI looks cheaper than it is supposed to be?
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Old Jan 30, 2015, 7:40 am
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Smile

Just to lighten the tone of the thread, have a look at this.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLe5aKSYgjM
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Old Jan 30, 2015, 7:52 am
  #87  
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Originally Posted by MeltingAlf
I don't doubt Deloitte's estimates (despite the fact that they might be a bit on the high side).
I do! Some slots at the peak times might for that much - but I can't imagine that every available slot pair throughout the day would command anything near that much!


Originally Posted by MeltingAlf
However, given that Heathrow slots sales are more of a slot trade rather than an outright sale (allocate, trade with other airlines and pay difference or more), I suspect that some of the value is inherently locked in the slots shouldn't be part of a valuation of EI in a sale, and therefore Deloitte's valuation of the slots alone makes EI looks cheaper than it is supposed to be?
Well - there are at least *some* slot sales, it's just that we don't always hear about them or how much they went for.

Continental paid £26.1 million per pair [€34.7m at today's rates] for 4 slot-pairs back in 2008. Meanwhile, the only other published slot trades since - in 2013 - had Delta and Etihad paying £15.1 million per slot pair.

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Old Jan 30, 2015, 8:21 am
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Originally Posted by irishguy28
I do! Some slots at the peak times might for that much - but I can't imagine that every available slot pair throughout the day would command anything near that much!




Well - there are at least *some* slot sales, it's just that we don't always hear about them or how much they went for.

Continental paid £26.1 million per pair [€34.7m at today's rates] for 4 slot-pairs back in 2008. Meanwhile, the only other published slot trades since - in 2013 - had Delta and Etihad paying £15.1 million per slot pair.

Hmm, the same CAPA source did say that there were only de facto trading or allocation of slots, but I guess de jure it is a sale, somehow.

IIRC the now-defunct Cyprus Airways sold their slots to AA at 30 odd million (USD?) last year. A little check seems like they were midday slots. That translates to around 20m GBP, which makes Deloitte's lower figure a bit high.

**looks at Deloitte's figures increasingly suspiciously**
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Old Jan 31, 2015, 6:45 am
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What next for EI (merged to Master Thread)

Given that FR were prevented from taking over the Airline, and now the IAG takeover looks to have failed, what do we think the future will hold for EI. It would appear that local TD's and the usual suspects from the unions are the only people who believe that the airline can survive on its own, and given that no other potential owner has shown interest, and even if they were interested, they would surely now be put off by the opposition faced by FR & IAG.
Will we see EI continue as it is until it faces some form of crisis and ends up being sold for a fraction of what is currently on the table.
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Old Jan 31, 2015, 8:05 am
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I'd say there will be a few more twists and turns in this story but eventually IAG will get EI. The guff spouted by the politicians against the takeover is laughable. Real parish pump politics at its worst. If I hear the word connectivity again I'll scream. What decade do these people think we live in?
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