layz

Now Stagecoach (90%) and Virgin (10%) have been given the East Coast franchise under the name Virgin East Coast, how do you see this affecting prices for people on this route? Will rising rail prices push up the air fares and if rail becomes too expensive would it make a LCY-NCL route viable? Will it encourage more people to fly LHR-LBA?

Why do I see this franchise is bad for people on this route? They've bid more than double what GNER and National Express bid for the route, both of these private operators failed.

The only chance of success is if they make more money and that means cuts in service quality (i.e. on board staffing, catering, etc) and raising fares. National Express done both and still couldn't keep the line running (it nearly brought their whole company to collapse) and they had to pay the government a whole lot less.

Does BA aim to make their prices competitive with the train or do they not really care (mostly aiming at connections)? Although if more people decide to fly it'll push up the prices anyway, but would the lowest fare buckets increase in price? When bmi pulled out of Glasgow did BA raise prices or did they just seem more expensive as the cheaper buckets sold out sooner?

Then there's LCY-NCL that was last attempted by Eastern Airways (T3) back in the days of GNER. Back in those days that route was more expensive than the train, with the larger Embrarers could BA offer an attractive service on this route?

LondonAndy

Clearly Stagecoach and Virgin have "form" with the West Coast Main Line. Whilst the train fares to Glasgow and Manchester are very expensive on a walk-up basis, I've found that they aren't too bad if you book in advance. I don't think that BA have substantially increased fares to Manchester and Glasgow as a result of the train fare, and I don't see why the East Coast should be any different.

There has been significant passenger growth on the East Coast, so I think that Virgin / Stagecoach have walked into this with their eyes open. I don't think that BA will be substantially changing their fares as a result of this - I can imagine that, with the exception of some of us nutters on here, people will generally make a decision about method of travel depending on ultimate destination, cost, flexibility, and convenience. Flying to Manchester is madness if you are going to a meeting in the city centre (even with a good train connection from the airport) and, to me, it is only really Edinburgh/Glasgow and points north of there where it is a clear-cut case for flying.

(This is my personal view, and not that of my employer)

KARFA

I was somewhat dismayed to see Virgin & Stagecoach getting the franchise, but I guess we will wait and see how it plays out. I am not looking forward to seeing lots of red everywhere and SRB appearing all over the place.

For the current operator East Coast you can get £13 singles if you book far enough ahead - i.e. when tickets get released. For my own personal pov I don't see this changing my mix of flights and trains. I used to live in Manchester between 2006-2010 so I am familiar with Virgin West Coast and you could get similarly cheap advanced tickets with them.

Sixth Freedom

All the pricing and revenue management staff will just be transferred over to the new operator* so other than the proposed 10% reduction in Anytime STD fares to and from London/Stevenage I would not expect fares to change much. The existing pricing strategy seems to be working well as East Coast is extremely profitable.

I think that the extra revenue will come from finding timetabling efficiencies and making capacity changes as new equipment comes available.

* = probably

mjh0

What is particularly disappointing about this franchise award is this gives Stagecoach an effective monopoly on the main routes to the North of England, and on both routes to Scotland, through their stake in VWC, majority ownership of the new ICEC franchise, and EMT.

Fail.

ba_cityflyer

Clever thread title to allow us to talk about trains in this forum

I'm more concerned what the new Hitachi BR class 800/801 rolling stock will be like when it appears. I love the current BR class 91/ mkIV (aka '225') stock.

The floor level is high to allow for noisy vibrating diesel engines to be fitted under the seats (even on the non-diesel variants). The seat look more 'Spacesaver'-y and don't look as comfortable. Spot the many windowless seats! I'm hoping the overhead racks will fit an IATA wheelie bag sideways.

Some preview photos here:







And article here - http://www.dca-design.com/images/con...s2014_Sept.pdf

DrBenO

I am mostly concerned that my now extensive Rewards Points will disappear into the ether

It's a pretty great scheme, 1 point per £1 spent on standard, 1.5 points per £1 spent on 1st class tickets- no restrictions on cheap advance ticket prices etc and redemptions are as low as 350 points for a one-way 1st ticket to anywhere on the EC route (eg: KGX to INV) if you redeem 4 at once.

Plus you get the points for buying any train tickets, on any route, any operator on the EC website. Most of mine have come from the (extortionate) Oxford to London pre-9AM Day travelcards (~£65) that I use 1-2 times per week and claim back on expenses anyway.

The other rewards (wine, beer, vouchers etc) are not good value, so I'll have to make some trips to the Highlands I reckon!

MarcD

The Stagecoach press relase at http://www.stagecoach.com/media/news...014-11-27.aspx mentions a new Nectar loyalty programme, so it does sound like it will be the end for East Coast Rewards sadly.

LondonAndy

Actually, I should have thought that the biggest impact for me will probably be the disappearance of a route for 3V Visa Card usage! I better use up my balance with East Coast PDQ

manymany

But it also says in that release that the Nectar points will be able to be used for train travel. On that basis I'm reserving judgement before seeing more details on this. I've only just started collecting East Coast Rewards with trips to the big smoke once or twice a week for work.


3 or 4 weeks ago East Coast started selling tickets for Edinburgh and Newcastle for 24 weeks in advance rather than the usual 12. It was specifically to compete with flying. I did a check and they appeared to be substantially cheaper than BA.

I'm pleased with the extra services to/from Lincoln but I want them now not in 2019!

mad_rich

I do think EC Rewards' days are numbered with the introduction of the fairly pointless Nectar.

EC are tweeting "The Rewards Scheme is expected to transfer to the new owner. More details to come at a later point."

However the DfT are saying "new operators will honour the existing scheme for a period and have plans to introduce their own excellent reward scheme"

It is an absurdly generous scheme, and I can see why they'd want rid of it.

The competition with air will be on frequency as much as anything else. 3tph London-Newcastle from 2019 (up from the current 2), with a fastest journey of 2h35.

layz

On the positive side. If I can spend Nectar points on VEC I have a way of running down my massive balance. It has grown over the years but I never spend it in the hope they get a decent partner!

Does anyone seriously think they can manage where National Express and GNER failed and somehow manage to pay their premiums to the government, make a profit and still rate highly for service? People had the same optimism for National Express, but Stagecoach are paying significantly more.

If this franchise lasts the course I can only see it happening if they renegotiate. Branson seems to have a way with getting what he wants so he may have better luck negotiating than GNER or National Express managed.

Sixth Freedom: I imagine many of the revenue management staff have roots in the GNER days. It was back when GNER launched the new booking engine in 2007 they put more emphasis on advance fares with a wider amount of price points. It had been successful in getting people onto the trains but wasn't enough to get either private operator profitable. The Stagecoach/Virgin franchise will mean somehow they have to make more money than even the current East Coast is managing.

As for operating efficiencies National Express enhanced everything but the restaurant. The had to cut back on maintenance costs which meant more broken seats during their time in charge. East Coast had to undo some of those enhancements but had to scrap the restaurant.

I can't believe any operator can run in more successfully than currently and the current East Coast profits are lower than what Virgin EC has to pay.

I hope at least they keep the booking engine. Virgin and Stagecoach generally use thetrainline based sites.

BerksFlyer

Firstly, although East Coast is profitable it's nowhere near as profitable as the new company will need to be to pay the premiums it has promised to the government. East coast returned £202.8m in 2012/13 and £216.8m in 2013/14. Just look at how much Stagecoach/Virgin have offered and you'll soon realised that something needs to change dramatically. The vast majority of costs are fixed so the only realistic two ways to get more money are increase fares or get more bums on seats. The existing pricing strategy will definitely not deliver what's needed.

Secondly, how do you get more revenue from finding timetabling efficiencies?

manymany

Is a booking tool the same as a booking engine?

layz

Hmm, what's wrong with the existing booking engine? All other Stagecoach franchises use a trainline variant so I doubt they have anything better up their sleeves!