knick1959

Hi,

I've seen the award availability on domestic flights change mutiple times a week, on occassion, but the international flight I am watching doesn't seem to be doing anything.

I've acquired one flight from CLE to LIM (Business class) in April of next year on SAVER points. I need a second, and I've been watching every day to see if availabilty chances. Even looking at the 2 segments individually. Nothing so far.

I do have enough for a "Anytime" ticket in waiting, in case I never do see the Saver award I want come up. My questions are of feasibility and timing.

Am I being too optimistic that a new Business Saver award might pop up in the 9 months up to my desired flight? Are the chances non-existent, slim or good? If there is a chance, when might it show up (I'm assuming much closer to departure date)?

If there is a chance that a new Bus Saver award might pop up, what's safe for waiting before I just blow 65k on an Anytime award? I've checked flights a week or 2 out and they don't seem to be full. However, not getting my wife on the flight with me might be bad for my health .

Thanks in advance.

JDiver

Welcome to FlyerTalk.

American Airlines and US Airways continue to operate as separate carriers (though both are part of the same parent company through the merger), and will continue to do so for some time.

As this question relates to the American Airlines operation, it is being moved to the pre-merger American Airlines forum.

/Moderator
_____________

Yield / Revenue Management algorithms that automatically release (or not) 'SAAver seats are based on historical loads as well as predictive analytics, modified by actual sales. A seat may never become available, cancelled seats may not be returned to 'SAAver inventory, or may be released at any time. Using a service like ExpertFlyer to alert one to a seat release might be a decent investment.

N.B. You may wish to read the following thread (and of course, the FAQ "sticky" thread).:

MileSAAver / SAAver Award Availability - Assistance & Discussion (consolidated)

footballfanatic

only you can answer this question. space might open up, or it might not.

reeg2

No one knows the frequency or likelihood of anything. It's all just a guess. But I'd guess that AA released a couple of seats, they were taken, and now they're waiting to see flight loads. I'd guess that more seats will open up, so you can safely wait.

Since you are willing to pay the AAnytime award pricing, there's no need to make any moves as any seat is available with an AAnytime award. So set an alert with Expert Flyer and wait it out. No need to check daily as the alert will let you know when to check. I'd expect you won't see any movement until close-in on your travel dates.

pauleeepaul

I would invest in an Expertflyer membership to do the continuous checking. That said AA's behavior of late with regard to SAAver award availability is stingy and petulant- so have low expectations. And I wouldn't book the AAnytime award until the inventory for the flights you need is getting low. A couple of years ago I would have said book it and you can change it to a SAAver if availability opens up (incurring a fee unless EXP but locking it in.) But with AA's current strategy on SAAver availability I think (speculation) it is entirely possible that an AAnytime award being issued will be a "demand trigger" in the revenue management algorithm, decreasing the likelihood of SAAver inventory opening up.

knick1959

Thanks. 2 Votes now for Expertflyer, so I'm off to investigate.

I suppose I should go to the moved thread, but we're on a minor roll here ... I've been looking at seat assignments on the flights 1-2 weeks out similar to what I want. There seems to be plenty, but the AA agent (when I called to ask THEM about my chances ...said that this is no indication of how many seats remain unsold. What would be the best way to watch this number? Or will Expertflyer do this for me somehow, too?

Thanks again.

3Cforme

ExpertFlyer does repetitive queries for award inventory on the dates/flights/class of service you select. It is well worth the price, particularly as one's award journeys grow increasingly complicated. When you get an alert that award invemtory is opened, move quickly to book it.

Award inventory could be added at any time. An empty seat map isn't indicative; lots of business routes fill up in the last few days. A full seat map (and sellable inventory J0) is your worry. I've used ExpertFlyer alerts where Business invemtory opened up 3+ weeks in advance of travel (not just a few days before the flight) even on high demand routes.

SJOGuy

Remember, though, that with the new system of multi-tiered AAnytime awards, 65K is a base amount. It could end up being 90K or more, depending on supply and demand, and that could fluctuate between now and your desired departure date.

knick1959

Yikes. I'm screwed if the price goes up. I did a little MS to get my miles just barely over 65k. I wasn't planning on adding, and I certainly would have problems reaching 90k, particularly in a hurry. With Saver awards, I have Alaska and BA miles that would be usable.

So. Let's say I would buy a 65K Anytime ticket today. Then, perhaps 6 months from now a saver award pops up and I can snag this with BA Avios (or Alaska miles). What is the cost to me to cancel the AA ticket and redeposit those miles? Is this a good strategy?

One of the other "drawbacks" of the AAnytime ticket is that it is true Business/First on the segment from CLE to DFW. My BA already-acquired flight has this segment in coach. I suppose I could let my wife fly in luxury for those couple hours, while I fly cramped, but a Saver award might tend to even things out .

You know, I posted a variant of this question on milepoint months ago and got nothing usable. It's nice to see that people ARE actually helpful. Thanks again to all who have replied!

knick1959

Am I reading the AA pages right, and to cancel an award flight (redepositing the miles) cost me $150?

I don't see any other costs or risks to this ... yes? I guess I have to wonder; if I book my wife with an AAnytime ticket, then later try to snag a Saver award for the same flight and book it with her name, would this fail since she's already on the flight? Would this require a call in?

3Cforme

There is a fee to cancel the AAnytime award and redeposit the miles. There is a fee if you redeem for a new award <21 days before before travel.

http://www.aa.com/i18n/AAdvantage/re...servations.jsp

What are the incremental miles from saver to aanytime time worth to you?

QueenOfCoach

No one can offer you a 100% guaranteed "guess" as to if or when another seat might become available. After all, the whole frequent flyer mile program was designed to fill seats that would have otherwise been empty with frequent flyers as a reward for their loyalty.

You can guess, estimate, consult an Ouiji board or what have you but no one can tell you what will be available on a specific flight on a specific date. That might be the date the some giant corporation flies their vice presidents in for a special sales meeting, taking up all the Business Class seats with paid tickets. The day before and the day after could fly with empty seats and unfilled award availability.

If you can be happy ending up in Coach (and it's not that bad), then just put yourself on a wait list for the upgrade. If you really really want that seat, then spend the extra miles/dollars and get a confirmed reservation now, then save yourself time and anguish.

pauleeepaul

As has been pointed out repeatedly AA is not releasing SAAver inventory for premium seats just because there are empty seats on a flight, right up to departure.

Changing a coach award for a premium award is a reissue not an upgrade, and there is no associated "wait list".

The OP got some decent advice in this thread- beyond "take what is available and be happy with it." Don't really see the reason for/value in your post.

knick1959

I did get great advice. Thanks again to all who provided great information.

I signed up for a 5 day free ExpertFlyer PRO trial, simply to see what it does. With 3 award flight alerts set, I'll go ahead and commit ... I suppose it's safe to do monthly for now. My needs come in spurts, so I'll try it out monthly and see what happens in the long haul.

I've also decided to bite on the AAnytime ticket for now. This will get my wife to Peru with me. I'll keep watching for a saver award, and if one comes up, will attempt to snag it with BA or Alaska miles. Or even AA miles; I will happily pay the $150 to free up 35k AA miles, or better, 65k, pulling from my large BA pile instead.

knick1959

I had decided to go ahead and book the AAnytime award while continuing to troll for a saver award. Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but was planning to soon. Reading above, you're suggesting I wait, but I don't understand this with the "decreasing" likelyhood that a Saver award will open. Are you suggesting that by ME committing to the AAnytime award, I am increasing demand and hurting my own chances at a lower cost ticket?