Altaflyer

Maybe WS takes over the AA flights and AA codeshares on those and AA uses their slots in another way? This would suck from a BA miles redemption perspective!! Weekend non-stops out west would likely be possible in the summer time and I suspect a daily non-stop to YYC or even potentially YEG would be feasible if it were not for the perimiter rule. Doubt it would make sense for WS to operate to any other eastern city given the lack of connecting feed.

adamj023

Obviously it is 8 slots and it will be more than just Toronto.

I don't see anything different that WestJet is doing than Delta out of LGA which is replacing USAirways with bigger jets for service.

Canada's population is growing and its financial sector has been stable for a long time. Obviously WestJet fully knows that more capacity is needed between the important USA and Canada route which is an important trading partner with America especially due to NAFTA.

WestJet may be coming in with bigger jets which means it is more serious on the routes it serves. Nowadays business models are more global in nature and shared knowledge transfers through borders.

WestJet did to Canada what JetBlue did for the USA. As the economy recovers, global resources are needed and air travel becomes there to necessitate such. So I understand exactly how WestJet fits in.

I personally know of Canadians who couldn't get into the United States because of immigration reasons and with increasing population and open borders, markets are growing and will need more capacity so airlines have to adjust for these and add flights as needed.

There isn't anything surprising here. Other carriers are not as well capitalized as WestJet apparently.

Airbus A319 and A320 are equivalent to 737 models which Air Canada has.

American Airlines is in poor financial shape and has smaller EQ on the route.

In competition, WestJet and Air Canada are the two carriers most people will be going on and each has their own advantages and disadvantages.

With 8 slots, Westjet will likely be able to sustain their business @ LGA for the long term.

So while USAirways pulled lots of flights out from LGA, WestJet and Jetblue which are both much better carriers add important routes that matter and make more sense for LGA as a hub.

So LGA will be a much better airport with much better carriers and competition now. It just remains to be seen if the next phase is upgrades to the runways and Central Terminal and taxiways and perhaps an airtrain later on.

I realized Westjet was the most likely winner of the slots myself and yes it makes perfect sense.

Would I use Air Canada or WestJet if I had to fly to Canada? I can't answer that since it would depend on a lot of factors but I surely would use A319, A320 or 737 service and not the other planes.

So Canada @ LGA will be Air Canada vs Westjet and I have heard decent things about both. It means stronger competition between the two.

I personally don't think the AA route is going to be sustainable but even if it was, Air Canada vs WestJet both fit in perfectly with the demands of the marketplace. Remember, they have service at other routes and can put in 737-600, 700 or 800 depending on passenger loads.

robsaw

The AC E-175 and E-190 are nice aircraft, did you purposefully exclude those?

adamj023

They are much smaller in size and usually have worse seating options. I personally prefer to take larger jets on the routes.

I realize Westjet will have larger jets on their routes however. But you missed my point:

WestJet obviously believes there will be growth on these routes.

acdsee5555

For what it's worth YHZ presently has about 6 direct flights a day to the NYC area, and offers U.S. customs pre-clearance.

As all (I think) are smaller commuter style aircraft (United Express, Continental Connection, American Eagle, etc.) I think Westjet could do very well offering 737 service on this route.

Short hair Francis

+1, even if they run 736s all day, I don't see how you can compete in LGA's nature, the market clearly demands frequency over size.
Adamj023, there is 1 above 100 seat plane in the 55 flights between the Toronto and NYC market.
Theres a probably very good reason why that is @:-)
I still remember flying 5x on AA S80 on YYZ-LGA back in 09 and you might be lucky to have 50 people in a 132 seater

Well you could run YYC-LGA on Saturday when the perimeter rules isn't in effect.
If AA/WS work on their codeshare deal more, I could see AA giving the higher demand times (YYZ-LGA) to WS while they run other eagle routes elsewhere.
I would imagine a ex-YYZ 6am, 3pm and 6pm as a good starting point in that matter

You do realise that E75/E90 are 2+2 in Y while 320/738 are 3+3 in Y.
Your not truly saying you loved the prospect of a middle seat, are you?


I will disagree in that instance and I've explained on FT chat yesterday as well
8 slots isn't necessarily alot of resources to run in a market demanded by frequency and not capacity.
If WS chose to run bigger equipment, they could easily lose their pants
I'm not discounting the fact AA is in poor shape at this point, I could easily see a Ch. 11 personally too.

The big issue however is slot time.
I'm going to use some stats from our friends over on airliners.net
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/5287582/

I'm going to use bundle 1 as an example, and I've paired the slots together for easy reading.

Time / Frequency
2000 Arrival X6 - 0600 Departure X67 (YUL)
2100 Arrival X6 - 0630 Departure X67 (YYZ)
0730 Arrival X67 - 0830 Departure X67 (YUL arr/YHZ dep.)
0830 Arrival X67 - 0930 Departure X67 (YYZ)
1100 Arrival X67 - 1230 Departure X6 (open slot)
1300 Arrival X6 - 1400 Departure X6 (YWG)
1500 Arrival X6 - 1600 Departure X6 (YHZ arr./YUL dep.)
1700 Arrival X6 - 1830 Departure X6 (YYZ)

With the slot times available and to compete for business travellers, you should run 2 and maybe 3 routes max.
YYZ, YOW, YHZ, YUL, YWG?
I can easily see WS do 3 YYZ-LGA but how are you going to fit in the other destinations with meager times?

I've try to fill the slots with possible destinations, that open slot time I can easily see be a heavy money loser quite possibly.

WS can easily burn themselves if they put too much capacity in the market, and its not like they haven't bailed from LGA before either.

But at least we're more efficient with these LGA slots instead of Scareways running 18x Dash 8 to PHL (90 mile flight) lol

neuron

There probably is a little more room in the YYZ-NYC market given that virtually every flight I am on is usually busy (CO and AC, PD a little less so). I do recall, however, AA and CO offering YYZ-NYC on their websavers quite frequently over the last year, so that may indicate the market is not as firm as those airlines would like.

I think WS will need pretty good frequency to make this one work, 8 slots will prob help, but when you consider the aircraft/frequency stats for YYZ are much better than than YOW/YUL, a 737 may be too big for the market, unless they are happy with a 50-70% occupancy.

I recall WS using the same gates (A) in LGA's Central terminal, I wonder if they will go back to those.

Finally, I will welcome WS's return -- could lead to lower fares!

TheGreatestX

YYC-EWR Sunday to Friday
YYC-LGA Saturdays?

adamj023

Carriers are phasing out the smaller jets right now because fuel costs are very high on those small jet. A larger jet means lower pricing per customer and more passengers onboard the aircraft to spread fuel costs over. The economics works out better.

WestJet will have no problem filling those routes which are in demand. Westjet can have frequency and larger jets on the route and fill those seats.

In the future most if not all of those profitable canadian routes will be run on the larger jets, the rest will be phased out. Same goes for USA Domestic as well.

Westjet with those next gen 737s and Air Canada with their A320 derivatives have the eq necessary on these routes.

I predict AA will drop out of the market in the near future and Air Canada will likely eliminate the smaller planes on these routes.

These routes will see Air Canada vs Westjet on the bigger planes.

It is likely canadian airports with small demand will get cut though.

So what will happen is only larger jet service from less airports. IE Route consolidation.

Westjet knows what they are doing as does Air Canada. What happens to the AA routes is anyones guess. Those AA routes are likely some of the offenders of routes contributing to AA's financial losses.

Expect more migrations to larger jets and the phaseout of the smaller jets not just with WestJet but with loads of carriers today with less routes flown and more consolidation.

I don't even see WestJet with new orders to fill these new LGA routes, just more efficient usage of existing equipment.

adamj023

They likely expect growth and consolidation which I forgot to mention in my initial posting. You mention the slots are limited which is all the more reason you want larger jets on these routes. Eventually if there is more growth at LGA, I wouldn't even be surprised if WestJet picks up the AA slots at LGA for Canada for even more service if in fact their initial game plan works out and if AA winds up declaring chap 11 or selling out these individual routes.

It all makes perfect sense. As for parsing which slot to which route, the canadian airports are already known and they already have internal data showing where the airports with the largest growth demands are. I don't know these offhand, but the process in which is going forward with WestJet is exactly the right approach here.

LGA as we know had limit slots for them so they will need to choose the airports with the greatest demand for traffic from LGA.

USAirways was running a lot of small jets out of LGA. Westjet now will have larger jets as will Delta out of here which are more efficient along with JetBlue. Southwest and Airtran will also be keeping on the bigger jets after the merger and I bet those 717's will wind up getting parted as well.

neuron

Why would AA give up its slots? They have a good presence at LGA, so even if they gave up TB routes (which is a big if), they can use the slots for other routes.

adamj023

AA is in poor financial shape. As such they are in a cash crunch. What happens many times is the carrier will pull out of markets and more slots will open up. I am not sure myself if they are sold for cash or just given back to the FAA who will reassign them.

WestJet and Air Canada will be around for a long time to come and I expect these carriers to do quite well but with larger jets at perhaps less airports if they consolidate.

But it does look like it will be nice for customers to get from LGA to Canada and strengthen the market on WestJet. Its a win for consumers and profit margins and shareholders alike.

PhotoJim

This flyer's opinion is that an AC E175/E190 is more comfortable and nicer to ride than a WestJet B737. WS has live TV and AC does not, which is a negative to some. But the Embraers in Air Canada's fleet are top-notch aircraft and well configured.

neuron

I would caution the exuberance of WS at LGA, remember, they were there once and abandoned it. Perhaps with more slots, they will be a viable carrier. Personally, it will be good if they can compete the price down (thought TB taxes are still a killer!)

I believe that WS and US will negotiate the sales T&C.

I still don't see any impetus for AA to get rid of this lucrative asset -- they operate 7 of the top 10 busiest city pairs from LGA, so they are competitive here. <but hey stranger things have happened!>

Short hair Francis

The inefficient Regional Jets you're referring to are 37-50 seater Embraer 135/140/145 and 50 seaters CRJ 200s.
There is only 4 flight out of the 55 that is in that range.

A larger jet can produce better CASM, but thats a BIG IF you can fill the plane.
Obviously Air Canada, American, Continental, Delta, and Porter don't think they can or in a very limited case.
If they are running 20% loadings on those 737s, it's alot better to run Regional Jets/Props instead.

Slots are tied to departure and arrival times.
NOT ROUTES.
Even in your example, AA cuts 8x YYZ-NYC. They can move those 8 slots to other flights.
And I guess you haven't seen those 350-400 dollar return fare on YYZ-LGA
And they isn't a Full Y fare, its the cheapest

AA isn't going to give up its slots, if they just want to hold the slots, they will fly 18x LGA-PHL themselives if thats what it takes to keep them

And unlike US-Brazil, US-Canada is open skies which means they can cut or add any additional flights as they pleased provided the carrier has the slots that is.

AA has declared NYC as a cornerstone market and has added back LGA-MSP/CLT/ATL in the last year.
They aren't simply going to cut and run.
Want a cut and run, go to STL!