IMO, there is way too much competition on that route, and yields are quite low.

According to the sometimes questionable wikipedia source, VX has 10 A/C on order. Frankly, they should be using those added planes to bring more people into the VX network like they did when they announced FLL.

I have said this on a few occasions before, but I am still at a loss as to why VX, as a west-coast based carrier, has not entered into PDX yet. A PDX-SFO route would not tie-up a single aircraft like a transcontinental flight would, plus PDX has almost the perfect demographics that a trendy carrier like VX would want.

~FAI PDX Flyer

SFO-PDX also has very tough competition- WN and AS, both of whom are perfectly happy to have yield-destroying fare wars with VX when it shows up on their turf. It's taken a considerable amount of time and cash for the ex-SEA routes to mature for VX (but it appears that they have), and PDX is an even smaller market. It doesn't surprise me that they only want ONE frontal assault on AS/WN at a time, since VX's advantages largely only show against airlines like AA or UA.

WN's entrance into the SFO-SNA market apparently did not deter VX from also entering the market even though SNA is a SMALLER airport than PDX. So what is the difference?

~FAI PDX Flyer

I think the major difference is that WN announced SFO-SNA after VX did. At the time VX committed to it, WN was not involved.

Nope. Check out the A.net thread, Southwest Adds SFO To SNA Starting May 9, 2009 . WN clearly announced SFO-SNA service before VX committed to the route.

VX has made no qualms about starting routes that are already 'well served' by the other carriers. Why is PDX any different despite it being a busier airport than SNA?

~FAI PDX Flyer

The difference is the lack of AS competition and much lower volume to PDX when you look at the larger market, which is Bay Area to Southern California. SFO-SNA competes with OAK/SJC-SNA and, depending on destination in SoCal, SFO/OAK/SJC-LAX/LGB/ONT and perhaps even BUR and SAN. Between those airports there are hundreds of flights every day between WN, B6, AS, AA, UA and VX. SFO-PDX is a thin route with competition from OAK and SJC in the Bay Area and no real alternate airport in the PDX area. Even though AS, WN and UA fly the routes, they seem to have achieved a decent balance that has allowed them to keep flights full and, based on the prices I am paying for so-called cheap fares on AS, decent yields. Entry by VX would likely cause AS to start a fare war, just as it did on SFO-SEA. I suspect VX wants to time that entry just right to ensure that it can survive the fare war.

SNA is also a slot controlled airport, it may have been an opportunity to get a foot in the door while they could.

Actually, I had already looked in that thread, and VX had already applied for SNA (which I consider a committment) before WN made that announcement.

Yup. If you read the thread, you see the mentions of VX's planned service.

Also, it's a bit different to have WN come in at roughly the same time on your new route, as opposed to starting service on a well-established WN route (PDX-Bay Area). WN could easily decide "time for $29 fares for 6 months" without hurting itself too much (since they have a lot of network outside of that), AS would match, and VX's yields on that route would be trashed.

To give you an idea, SEA-SFO is $49 o/w on AS for a lot of dates in January 2010. PDX-SFO's lowest fare is $114 (which, btb, is considerably higher than SEA-LAX at $69, which is nearly twice as long). That's VX's influence on yields right there- totally trashing them (and you see why AS doesn't like VX very much). Now imagine what happens if WN decides they'll run some $29 PDX-Bay Area specials once VX shows up (WN is considerably stronger in PDX than in SEA, and AS is somewhat weaker- I actually think WN will decide to try and step on BOTH VX and AS's throats in this market by being aggressive in a fare war, since AS is downgauging a lot of PDX-Bay Area to RJs and Q400s).

VX coming to PDX is going to be great if you want cheap fares on the West Coast as a consumer, but the losses on yields can't suck VX dry- AS and WN have lots of cash on hand and they are hardly going to retreat meekly like UA did on SEA-LAX (they downgauged to UX RJs) on routes where they command a lot of market share. VX was meant to compete against legacies (UA, AA). Competing against two of the best-run US carriers (both of whom operate on the West Coast as LCCs) is a whole 'nother ballgame, and I think they will be VERY cautious coming into PDX.

Has anyone heard of any new destinations or expansion that may be coming soon from VX? I would LOVE to see PHL but from what I gather on reading previous posts, it looks like ATL, AUS, or ORD would come first.

Even though VX is a West Coast based airline, to expand to Toronto and Atlanta would only make the best business sense if JFK became it's East Coast hub. that way, JFK would connect to BOS, DCA and FLL along with Atlanta and Toronto.

Erm, where is VX going to get DCA slots from? Not to mention the problem that they'd be running SFO/LAX-IAD and JFK-DCA, so they'd be duplicating ground staff and so on for not much gain.

I don't think VX is going to try hubbing on the East Coast- you see, there's this other carrier operating Airbuses out of JFK as an LCC you might have heard of...

Personally, I think they will want to show the midcon some love (DFW, DEN and ORD) next... and the service will be out of CA.

I agree with DFW/ORD. DEN would be too much of a battle. UA/WN/F9 (or whatever they are called, now)?

Of course, I also agree (and always have) with your assessment of an east coast hub. Bad idea.

If VX will have to be approval from DOT authority. If they will bring award more slots into DCA. Due to perimeter rule is on the restrictions 1,400 miles and it cannot be allowed to flying transcons flight out of DCA-SFO/LAX. If they will have to be filing with DOT to get in negotiations deal. If perhaps it will have to take the advantage of VX only for DCA-JFK instead of going to transcons flight. Because it was too many congestions control in DCA. Lets speculating begin if VX is considers for DCA-JFK or DCA-FLL.