The SWU's were already a problem this year. People paying hundreds of dollars to be in the right fare class only to find themselves in econ. I split an award to NRT because I had no chance of business class on the return. MUCH MUCH worse for upgrades than last year. Someone should call them on the use of "free" upgrades. Tokyo was a $600 premium, now SIN is a $500 premium and Europe a $200 premium.

Given the difficulty of upgrading internationally (especially to Asia), it would make more sense -- in the cases where there is no confirmable upgrade seats -- to allow customers to pay the lowest available fare and if the waitlist clears for the ugraded class -- to collect the fare difference at that point. Its not right to require the purchase of a higher fare class when there may not be any realistic chance for the upgrade space to clear.

I wish that would be the case, but this change is not going to help UA generate any additional revenue, I doubt it will happen. Looking at CO is switching to the same SWU rule next year. W+ fare or above is going to stay. Last year was a bad year for SWUs, failed 4 H fare upgrade but still end up burning 8/10 so far w/ 1 pending. Flying on holidays seem to be the sure way to burn SWUs this past year.

What do you think the odds are?
And what do you think they should be, to be considered realistic?
I have no idea what the real numbers are but plenty of folks are reporting success
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...10-onward.html
but there are failures also http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...-failures.html

I would say a 1K has a 50% chance which is unacceptably low. That was about what my husband (also 1K) and I experienced this year. Being a Million Miler, as my husband is, counts for nothing in the queue. That is also wrong. I do agree that UA won't give up the revenue to be fair about upgrades.

SFO-PVG, PVG-SFO, SFO-HKG, HKG-SFO - 35% chance of a 1K clearing a SWU from Y to C. This is a consensus from a dozen 1K/GS that I talked to in route.

In 2010 I failed to clear a SWU only on 1 segment out of about 30 segs (10 SWUs).

In 2010: 100% SWU clearance SFO-PVG; 50% SWU clearance SFO-HKG (one success, one failure, which is was the only one all year). The consensus is that SFO-HKG is tougher and there is even a thread on successes/failures on the route,

I have cleared every single SFO-pvg upgrade for the past 4 years, about 10 rt's in total. If you pick the right days they are easy upgrades. If you have to fly on Saturday then hope the new ua keeps e+!

Agreed that the day of the week has an impact. However, from September to Christmas Thur, Fri, Sat, Sun, were not good. Prior to September the upgrades from SFo-PVG-SFO were better, but not now. It does not matter who has 100% upgrade record for 2010 on this route. The fact is if you have an upgradable Y fare now and want to use a SWU you have a 35% chance of clearing the one direct flight per day.

What data point do you have to make this statement?

Many people that I know have regularly cleared SFO-PVG. I myself sponsored 2 people with SWU at the end of 2010, supposed peak travel time for this route, and both cleared well in advance of departure (2 to 4 days in advance).

Well, look at the bright side. Once UA & AA start LAX-PVG shortly, I'm sure the upgrade %'s on SFO-PVG will improve substantially.

On the topic of 1Ks earning regional upgrades (CR1s) as they did before... has anyone had their first quarter upgrades post yet? I'm sitting at about 19K EQM (all on UA metal) in January, and I am wondering when I might expect to see my CR1s post for first quarter. Any guesses?

Thanks!

Mileage Plus told me that I should see them by Feb 5th. I hit 10K on 1/8..

That is an excellent suggestion and truly fair to UA's elites.

There is not a snowball's chance in h___ that UA will ever do it! :)

I wonder what the success of non-FT'rs on SWU's is relative to FT'ers (With FT'ers using every trick in the book to increase there odds of success, and non-FT'rs just buying the ticket and applying an SWU and hoping for the best...)

Thanks, FriendlySkies!