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Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky
(Post 30869222)
US-based pilots are well aware of the issues that lead to the crash of the earlier 737 Max, and have been trained appropriately. It's not just our lives at stake; it's their own too. I regularly train (ride bicycles) with an AA pilot and he's definitely on top of this stuff. I have no issue whatsoever flying a mainline legacy carrier aircraft of any type. I have flown Ethiopian Air, actually the exact same route as this morning's disaster. Like many (not all!!!) carriers outside the US, there is a sense of "fly casual." Flying in the US is extremely safe. Flying elsewhere is likely much safer than any other way to get around (although I might have some misgivings about a few South American carriers; that plane in Peru that burned to the ground a couple years ago... I was on that airline, at that location, just a couple weeks prior. It didn't surprise me. Nobody died if I recall correctly).
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Originally Posted by prestonh
(Post 30869215)
correlation does not imply causation
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Originally Posted by crowly
(Post 30869328)
Actually, correlation does *imply* causation, it just does not guarantee it.....
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
(Post 30868781)
I was going to start a thread but may as well ask the question here: does this other incident with Ethiopian give anyone here pause around flying the MAX series? |
Originally Posted by rmadisonwi
(Post 30868812)
Not really. Personally, I’m booked on one today (Air Canada Max 8), and am not particularly worried. If it turns out there’s a flaw with the MAX, you can bet Boeing will fix it. They have too much riding on the line not to. Keep in mind the 787, while thankfully not involved in any accidents, was actually grounded for a few months because of safety concerns related to the battery, and other than some delivery delays and compensation, they haven’t really suffered for it. |
Originally Posted by Kacee
(Post 30869376)
I was already hesitant based on the Lion Air incident and subsequent reports about how Boeing evaded FAA safety restrictions with the new aircraft flight control systems.
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Any airline crash, anywhere in the world, will make me stop and rethink. It's harrowing, and in all reality, we're in the hands of two pilots. Thankfully, UA (like most US majors) has a wonderful group up front on every flight -- I may not agree with them on everything, (and might find their frequent bathroom trips annoying ;) ) but I'm okay putting my life in their hands.
As far as the MAX series goes, I have no issue stepping on one to work, pass ride, or even putting my family and friends on one. It's a wonderful airplane. |
For those who are interested in more details about how Boeing evaded FAA regulations which would have otherwise required retraining of pilots on its flight control systems (which will automatically push the aircraft's nose down in certain circumstances), there is an excellent NYT article: After a Lion Air 737 Max Crashed in October Questions About the Plane rose
It's a classic story of profits over safety and the risks of a captive regulator. |
Originally Posted by prestonh
(Post 30869215)
correlation does not imply causation
so many things can happen in take-off phase that it is way too early to point to either the aircraft, engines, or crew at this point. Many things are possible, does not mean they are likely. The initial post to which I responded implies some similarity to the Lion Air accident. It's way too early to conclude anything about causation in the ET crash, although the fact that it is another 7M8 is a disturbing coincidence. At this point, the Lion Air appears to have some relationship to the improper management of the MCAS nose-down command, which functions to trim the stabilizer in order to control pitch in a narrowly-defined scenario where an airplane is approaching a stall. It's not an inherently unsafe design; to the contrary, the reason the system is in place is to provide flight envelope protection when the aircraft is being flown into a marginal situation (high AOA, higher stall speed due to clean configuration, steep bank, manual control). We don't even know whether the ET 7M8 was configured and flown such that the MCAS protection is available. There is some FR24 data available showing some irregular variability in vertical speed in the minutes before the crash, which resembles the JT610 profile, but that data is not verified and is difficult to interpret in a vacuum. So, the bottom line is I'm not calling for the grounding of the airplane at this point, nor I am changing my travel plans to avoid the MAX at all costs. |
Originally Posted by EWR764
(Post 30869491)
You'll note that I'm not speculating as to the cause of the ET crash at all. I litigate airplane crashes for a living and of course am careful to avoid postulating causal theories while the wreckage is still smoldering.
The initial post to which I responded implies some similarity to the Lion Air accident. It's way too early to conclude anything about causation in the ET crash, although the fact that it is another 7M8 is a disturbing coincidence. At this point, the Lion Air appears to have some relationship to the improper management of the MCAS nose-down command, which functions to trim the stabilizer in order to control pitch in a narrowly-defined scenario where an airplane is approaching a stall. It's not an inherently unsafe design; to the contrary, the reason the system is in place is to provide flight envelope protection when the aircraft is being flown into a marginal situation (high AOA, higher stall speed due to clean configuration, steep bank, manual control). We don't even know whether the ET 7M8 was configured and flown such that the MCAS protection is available. There is some FR24 data available showing some irregular variability in vertical speed in the minutes before the crash, which resembles the JT610 profile, but that data is not verified and is difficult to interpret in a vacuum. So, the bottom line is I'm not calling for the grounding of the airplane at this point, nor I am changing my travel plans to avoid the MAX at all costs. That said, in the interest of full disclosure and any potential parallels to max etc. the JT610 crash also has a troubling maintenance issue and documentation with the AOA sensor which the previous crew/flight struggled with/reported, then put back in service. The aircraft was declared not airworthy in the preliminary report IIRC which potentially puts the trim cutout arguments moot (how is a flying officer supposed to respond to a aircraft not maintained in an airworthy state?). |
Originally Posted by Mike Jacoubowsky
(Post 30869222)
US-based pilots are well aware of the issues that lead to the crash of the earlier 737 Max, and have been trained appropriately. It's not just our lives at stake; it's their own too. I regularly train (ride bicycles) with an AA pilot and he's definitely on top of this stuff. I have no issue whatsoever flying a mainline legacy carrier aircraft of any type. I have flown Ethiopian Air, actually the exact same route as this morning's disaster. Like many (not all!!!) carriers outside the US, there is a sense of "fly casual." Flying in the US is extremely safe. Flying elsewhere is likely much safer than any other way to get around (although I might have some misgivings about a few South American carriers; that plane in Peru that burned to the ground a couple years ago... I was on that airline, at that location, just a couple weeks prior. It didn't surprise me. Nobody died if I recall correctly).
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sea...crash/%3famp=1 |
Originally Posted by sleuth
(Post 30869700)
They weren’t “well aware” prior to November, so disaster #1 could have been AA/UA/WN. It doesn’t negate the fact that there is a flaw with this aircraft type. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sea...crash/%3famp=1 |
Originally Posted by prestonh
(Post 30869649)
(how is a flying officer supposed to respond to a aircraft not maintained in an airworthy state?).
In discussions with people following the ET crash, my general theme has been to discourage a rush to judgment ("ground the MAX" or "I'm not getting on one until they figure it out") and let the process - a very good, effective one at that - play out. |
Originally Posted by EWR764
(Post 30869750)
That is fair, and of course there are procedures to recover from irregular occurrences, e.g., runaway elevator trim (even if occasioned by instrumentation failure) that may not have been followed in the JT610 case... time will tell.
In discussions with people following the ET crash, my general theme has been to discourage a rush to judgment ("ground the MAX" or "I'm not getting on one until they figure it out") and let the process - a very good, effective one at that - play out. |
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