I would not rely on seat map as the sole indicator. Bookings from third party, for example, will not have seats selected by default.

An open seat map provides a lot of choices for seat selection, but most inventory, the more accurate read, have been spoken for on this particular flight. Good luck.

Yes, I have learned from reading this forum that seat map doesn't reflect actual availability. In this case our upgrade cleared around 36 hours out and now and when you go into the flight status seat map (top screenshot) it is very different than the change seats map (bottom screenshot) accessed from the reservation.
Another data point (as if it was needed) that the seatmap isn't a true representation of what is actually available.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...b49240c55b.png
Flight Status Seat Map
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...47abba0688.png
Change Seats Seat Map

Thanks you again for the information shared.

Turn off silent mode if you have upgrades pending
 

Our upgrades for 869, SFO-HKG (Polaris) came through last night, 11:06pm (about 36 hours prior to flight). Thankfully I spotted it and selected seats; had I waited until morning, remaining seats were scattered about the cabin. Instead, I was able to get the middle side-by-side seats with the movable divider.

Now I have to figure out if it's worth the hassle to see if I can have the PNR split and change one of us from miles-based upgrade (plus $450) to PlusPoints. I've only got 40, not enough for both of us.

I keep seeing awards space show up and go away without anyone being upgraded. Top 2 on upgrade list are in one PNR while 3rd is on a single PNR. Top 3 are all GS.

One morning PN1 showed up. That afternoon it was back to PN0. The next morning it was PN2 and by mid afternoon it was PN0 again. I called and confirmed PN2 was showing up for them too when it was showing up for me.

Nobody got upgraded and the amount of reserved seats didn’t change.

Anyone know why this is going on?

My wife and daughter are travelling in 15 days (Dec 22) to DFW-SFO-SYD (2005/863). Paid W fares with no status (will earn silver on this trip). On the international leg (only one we care about), J8 JN8 C8 D8 Z8 ZN8 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 XN9 X9. Selected miles+copay waitlist at booking back in September. My experience travelling to SYD this time of year (as a former NRSA and later revenue passenger) is that there are almost always seats for every type of upgrade if there are no cancellations. The actual loads as of now show (8/0/27) available on the domestic leg and (24/10/71) on the TPAC. We really are hoping this will clear before there aren't any seat pairs left so they don't end up separated. Given the light loads in PP, I have to think this is a pretty good chance of making it by the T-24 sweep? Thoughts?

would still appreciate anybody's insight into this. thank you!
(Fare classes now showing as
J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN0
PZ0
IN0
I0
O9
ON9
A9
R0
RN0
Y9
YN9
B9
M9
E9
U9
H9
HN9
Q9
V9
W9
S8
T2
L0
K0
G0
N9
XN0
X0

Q fare is not premium economy. Premium economy is O, A, or R.

Either way, your chance is good.

What are the chances for 1K upgrade with companion on 12/9 MCO-DEN flight at 8:30pm. My girlfriend and I are at #5 and #6 on upgrade list with 7 open seats….G type fare

Your chances are so-so w/o status. Upgrades into PremPlus will probably not happen at all until day before flight at the earliest.

You're sitting at the position of waitlist most affected by buy-ups. Call it maybe slightly better 50/50.

You have to search just for the flight you're interested in, by itself. If this flight were really J8, your odds would be zero, but the J8 is coming from the domestic leg.

You're more optimistic than I am. I'd call it virtually zero if you're at #5/6 with 7 seats left and two days to go.

I'm counting on parents being too poor from a couple of days at Disney :)

Just to clarify -- the upgrade is to Polaris, I was just mentioning PremPlus status for additional context -- fewer people in the mix to be ahead for Polaris.

Side question -- thinking about switching their flight to one through IAH -- there is ON7 -- will it clear into PremPlus while waiting for the Polaris availability?

Just search SFO-SYD (UA 829 and 863), LAX-SYD and IAH-SYD flights only. UA 863 has R9. What is the cost for buy-up to Premium Plus? From seatmaps, which are not always accurate, this flight has the best chance among the four flights.
Good luck.

You have almost zero chance at Polaris seats SFO-SYD. Trying to get there w/ no status from coach is a tough climb. Everyone with status in coach and PremPlus is ahead of you for requested upgrades. It is what it is. Upgrades are not being processed much more than a day in advance for mo9st "waitees". If they are, GS and 1Ks are getting them. I'll say it again - any upgrades you get w/ no status is likely to be the day before departure at the earliest.

How do you know "fewer people are in the mix" for Polaris"?

My question is a little different. I want to know if when you waitlist from Economy to BOTH Premium Plus and Polaris when there is in fact Premium Plus upgrade inventory (ON7) -- will you clear into that prior to T-24 and remain on the waitlist for Polaris -- or will you remain on the waitlist for both until it becomes clear that you will or will not get into Polaris and only then go into Premium Plus (if still available). I can see all the loads and agree 836 has the best chance in a vacuum, but 101 is the only one with ON availability now. And this is a discounted UADiscount fare, so the buyup to PremPlus is not cost-effective when I check it.

The fewer people in PremPlus the fewer people that are automatically ahead on the upgrade list. In any case, I've flown NRSA (as a son of a former pilot) to Sydney a half dozen times. I've never not gotten a business seat (though twice I called an audible and went through MEL). I think these flights very regularly accommodate all revenue passengers and then some.

I’m leaning on hope. I had a very similar event on last month SFO-MCO redeye. I was like #5 with like 7 seats left. It cleared like t-24. No promises but economy plus is almost empty which is a little bit of a positive sign. Not much I do agree.

Similar question here - Bought Q class, Economy for IAH-EZE. used PQPs shows 25ish open on the seat map but not 100% sure when it would clear, flight is on the 13th of December. Thoughts? I'm 1K
P.S. first post, go easy on me :-)

If you waitlist for Premium Plus, you will clear into Premium Plus when / if Premium Plus upgrade inventory opens -- but that's RN, not ON. ON is award inventory, but not upgrade inventory.

Actually, looking at upgrades next couple of days loads, you could be right.

Hi! I'm hoping to fly SFO-SIN on January 29, 30, or 31. I am 1K with PP. I've been checking PZ avails and it seems there are a lot for this route in the end of Dec. Does anyone know if they've been opening up PZ space in the month of travel? For example, if I book SFO-SIN in early Jan, will I see a lot more PZ avails when it's within the month? Does anyone have any other tips? Also, if there's PZ confirmable space and I use PP and then have to change my travel, do I get the PP back or do they function like Skip Waitlist PP and are not refundable? Thanks so much for any advice.

Welcome to flyertalk!

SFO-SIN is one of the most difficult routes to clear. If they are far behind on sales, they may open PZ, but don't count on it happening. If you do manage to confirm PZ and then change the flight, you will get the pluspoints back.

Thank you for the response! I'm seeing tons of PZ avails on the SFO-SIN routes in December, though. Is that just bc it's not a popular December destination? Or do you think it's difficult to clear always and December is a fluke? Thanks again.

I see no PZ availability from SFO to SIN in December. I see a few days' worth from SIN to SFO, just prior to Christmas, likely because few business travelers are coming to the US for Christmas.

SIN-SFO and vv almost never have advance PZ. UA tries to sell the seats all the way to departure, and it's a challenging route to clear because absolutely everyone with status will use their PlusPoints on that flight -- it's not like there's a longer route to save them for.

You forget IAH-SYD :-D

-RM

:D Indeed, so I did.

What dates do you see available? Later December and January are lighter demand, so there is a better chance now than the rest of the year, but it will still be difficult most days.

Upgrade chances on UA27 Tue 12 Dec
 

UA27 DEN-LHR on Tue 12 Dec

Recently minted MP-Silver booked in R class with pending MUA. Inventory shows: J9 JN9 C9 D8 Z7 ZN7 P6 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O3 ON3 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9

Two questions:
1) chances for upgrade clearance?
2) website shows availability to book new R tickets but inventory shows R0. Why?

Thanks Flyer Talk!

I checked every single SFO-SIN flight for late December starting with the 23rd. The only flight with any availability is the morning flight on NYE December 31 going SFO-SIN. That flight is PN9 PZ6. Every single other flight from the 23rd to the 31st is PN=0 and PZ=0. So there is absolutely not wide availability whatsoever.


-RM

I haven’t looked at SIN in a few weeks. I’ll check it out. In mid-November there were no deals (pricing or PZ) on SIN. I hope things have changed!

I'm trying to upgrade two Silver passengers on UA 875 (12/12) to either PE or Polaris. Currently it shows: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN5 PZ2 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G9 XN9 X9

Looks like PE is oversold from what I can tell. Do these folks stand any chance?

PZ2 means they’d clear immediately with Plus Points or MUA

My 1K upgrade along with my girlfriend’s cleared at T-24 on tomorrow nights MCO-DEN.

I'm using my PP to upgrade them ... wonder why the upgrades didn't clear in that case :confused:

If they are waitlisted then remove the upgrade and re-apply. If the flight is still PZ2 they will clear immediately. There's a lag between when PZ space shows up and when the computer runs to process upgrades.

-RM

Done :tu:

Now shows PZ4 :)

Can someone help clarify how to understand the upgrade list?

Are the two upgraded passengers included in the 36 "booked", which suggests that as of today there are 12 seats free?

If nothing changes between now and departure, #'s 1-12 on the upgrade list would be expected to clear?

Thanks!

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...3cab80c55.jpeg

The 36 booked includes the two already upgraded. Yes, if nothing changes, 1-12 will clear on that flight *. But things will change. Perhaps 1-8 will make the cut.

* On some aircraft, there is a seat held back for crew, but the 789 doesn't need it.

Something change recently with how cleared upgrades are displayed vs. when they are not? Like in the screenshot above, I've noticed cleared upgrades showing up more often on the Flight status page outside of T-24/36 hr than I am used to seeing.