The flight is currently P5PN2, which is a good sign--no GS waiting to upgrade. There's 11 people on the UG list though, so unless you are in the top 3-4 of that, I give you about a 10% chance of UG. If you are top 3-4 (hopefully with 1K you are), then I'd say 66% chance.

Thanks. How can u tell there’s 11 people on UG list?

Looking at 2 options for PHX-xxx-IAD for the night of 11/10 (Friday, but a holiday):

• PHX-LAX-IAD
• PHX-SFO-IAD

Both redeyes are on 753s. The downside to the connection in LAX seems to be that it is the same flight # continuing on, which IIRC can cause issues with clearing... the downside to SFO is, well, it's SFO (and also about $200 more expensive).

Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.

Personally I like LAX better, as there's simply a better chance of no weather delays in November vs SFO.

That said, no options through DEN or IAH? Seems like you're back tracking a good 1 hour+ with the itinerary you're looking at. I'm assuming you're looking for more sleep time for those red-eyes.

I’d second the suggestion to connect through LAX; it’s just more reliable. If you have access to the United Club, it’s better than anything at SFO. If you have lots of time—and are *A Gold—you could visit the Maple Leaf lounge in T6, which is seldom crowded. If you’re up for a jaunt, the *A lounge in the TBIT is a hidden gem.

I don’t like direct flights. For the MM program, you’re going to end up with the miles from PHX to IAD. If taking an earlier PHX-LAX flight works, I’d take that option.

And a flight leaving 7pm or later; I don't think there were any other options east post 4pm or so.

WX is a good point. I have watched a confirmed F seat vanish more than once as my inbound flight to SFO got delayed due to SFO weather, then the following day there was no F available anywhere in sight.

UA181 FRA-DEN on 10/25
 

I know seat maps aren't always the best barometer but showing good availability on ExpertMode. Booked two K fares and applied PP months ago. I want to be optimistic but have long since learned to not get my hopes up... what are my odds?

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...da82f0d89f.jpg
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...416dab0ada.jpg

Chance Me
 

UA363 EWR—HNL on 10/19. 2 pax booked in PE. 1K applied PP.

We are 1 and 2 on the upgrade list. The first class cabin was previously booked out but this morning it looks like 2 seats opened up (cancellations? flyers decided to change to different flight?)

If this works this will be the first time I’ve cleared PP all year. What do y’all think?

Unless some people decide to buy up (likely), your chances are good. I'd say your chances are at best, 50/50. Don't start dancing until you get a seat assignment in F.

UA won't process the last two upgrades until right around the time boarding starts, and it's considerably more likely that UA sells one or both of those two seats than that they go to current 1 & 2 on the list. But good luck - it could happen.

I actually tried to buy up myself but didn’t have the option to. Not sure if this is because I already bought up to PE or glitch in the system.

​​​​​​Was your PlusPoints attached when you were looking for a buyup?

Once check-in starts, you'll be able to see the day of departure upgrade pricing. Pricing you see now (by either removing the upgrade request or calling an agent) will not be good - they're likely to be a fare differential w/ only 2 seats left. At least PremiumPlus seats are tolerable for the daytime flight.

Anyone have some insight on UA 29 to Singapore on 10/25?

Mrs UAgeek is in PE on an R fare using my PP. she’s a 1K on My Million Mile status.

flights showing J9 C9 D9 but Z0 P0 and no PN PZ IN or I.

Even though it’s not perfect seatmap says 24/48 reserved.

The more interesting thing however is that the system shows O9 A9 R8 but the PE seatmap shows only 2 open seats.

I know they can over sell but if they sold 9 more seats in PE they’d have to upgrade at least 7

Not going on this run that often just wondering if there is a shot or will she die on the WL?

They will happily op-up 7 pax (or actually, collect the upgrades first) to sell the seats.

Yeah, on this route in particular UA will heavily oversell PE with R fares when the load is light in J. It's generally a very good sign for upgrades from PE.

I changed to a SFO-NRT flight, UA 837. But now I'm confused about the relationship between Flight Status capacity numbers, the seat map, and fare availability.

Flight Status Polaris upgrade list shows:Seat map shows 15 open Polaris seats.

Booking page shows availability:
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z5 ZN5 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O0 ON0 A0 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S8 T7 L5 K4 G3 XN7 X4

What's the actual availability of J seats? Based on J9, it can't be true that 58 Polaris seats are "booked," right? Am I missing something?

The flight status is messed up, unfortunately. :( At J9, there are definitely at least 9 seats available. UA does not systemically oversell J, and certainly not by 7.

Trying to estimate chance of PPs clearing on UA 981 DUB-ORD on a 752. Does this flight require row 4 A&B for relief pilot crew rest? With such a small cabin, two seats missing reduces chances dramatically

Any thoughts on chances of UG on UA 5 11/1? I am 1K but waitlisted from W fare for both PremPlus and Polaris using husband’s GS PP.

2 weeks out and seems like P9 is a good sign…

I see flight status has corrected, and now shows J booked 50/60, with 28 on the list

Pretty much a slam dunk. With GS PPs you are waitlisted for PN, not PZ. The flight is P9 and O9R8 meaning they are selling a ton of premium seats. In fact I'm very surprised you haven't gotten the upgrade yet. It should come any day now IMO.

-RM

Original reservation was for 11/2 and only I switched to UA5 yesterday so I’ll let UA off for not upgrading me immediately :D

Overnight got bumped to Prem Plus and still shows RN1 but no upgrade to Polaris yet. Hopefully that’s overnight tonight!

I'm hoping for some help to figure out the best way to book SFO-HKG-BKK - I have lowly silver status, and am trying to figure out if my chances would be better to buy an award ticket for myself and my partner for 60.5K each and hope for a premium economy buy-up for about $300-500 OR would it be better to pay $775 cash for economy and then upgrade waitlist for J for $600 + 30K miles (with backup to upgrade to just PE for 30K miles alone). We're flying around mid Jan on a Thursday if that might make a difference. Here's the current available fare classes. It's a mixed upgrade so HKG-BKK would be economy regardless. Any advice greatly appreciated!

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...148db73be8.png

A Silver has zero chance of getting into Polaris cabin SFO-HKG off a waitlist.

If you buy PE and upgrade to business with miles you’re ahead of all the 1K’s (but not GS) who buy economy and upgrade. This is your only shot really unless you get very lucky and still definitely not a sure thing.

Thanks! I'm sure Polaris is definitely out of the question, but wondering if the better way to try to upgrade from economy to PE is to get an economy award ticket and look for a cash upgrade, or buy a cash ticket and get on upgrade waitlist with miles? Or is even an economy to PE upgrade super unlikely?

Is SFO--FRA/MUC hard to upgrade with PlusPoints late Nov? or is it better to reposition to ORD/IAH/EWR/IAD first? I heard SFO is brutal, but so far I still see some P openings in those flights.

Out of curiosity, how far in advance does UA "usually" release PZ inventory?
("usually" meaning I'm already assuming it's completely variable :D)

I snagged a US-AU flight with PZ inventory on 2/21/24, but so far daily searches on a return either NZ-US or AU-US hasn't shown any PZ inventory whatsoever.
I flew AKL-SFO in August this year (booked in June in R) and upgrade cleared a few days prior to the flight.
Not so sure if taking the gamble in summer is as smart or if a random PZ spot will open up closer in.

Usually? That would be "never."

Anyone have a sense of how difficult Y (K fare) -> Polaris would be with a MUA mid-November? I assume impossible, but figured I'd maybe try it anyway (or see what the TOD buyup is, but if I MUA then I'm pretty sure I lose the ability to see the TOD upgrade)

Status? Route? Day of week?

I'm holding a K fare, SFO-ICN on Saturday, 11/4, status is Gold still, won't hit Plat until mid Dec at this rate.

Weighing some other options at this point, maybe cancel and rebook on KE for the nonstop.

Inventory on that fight is J8, meaning that there are only 8 J seats available after accounting for any PE oversales. (PE is sold out, which is often an indication that it's oversold).

Your upgrade chance with an MUA is essentially zero. :(

Yeah that's what I figured. Oh well. It's only 13 hours. Can't be any worse than the regular SFO-HKG/SFO-SIN mileage runs I did pre-pandemic.

Sad to say it but everything flying related is worse post-pandemic.

Are mileage upgrades from economy to premium economy just as unlikely? Wondering about the chances of mileage upgrades from economy (K fare) to PE for 2 people SFO-HKG on a Thursday in January with silver status? The annoying thing is now that I’ve requested the MUA I can’t see how much it is to buy up to PE outright.

On many routes, it's more difficult to upgrade to Premium Economy than it is to upgrade to Business. The PE cabin is much smaller, and UA often oversells it. In order to get upgraded to PE, you oftentimes need a seat to open in J for a PE passenger who's also upgrading.

Title: PlusPoints Upgrade Likelihood for Dulles to CDG March 2024?
Hello FlyerTalk community!

I'm a 1K member with United and have accumulated a good number of PlusPoints. However, I've rarely utilized them. I'm currently considering a flight from Dulles (IAD) to Charles de Gaulle (CDG) and CDG to IAD in March 2024 for my family of 3. We're looking at purchasing an economy fare and using PlusPoints for potential upgrades.

Questions:

1. Is there a way to determine the likelihood of securing an upgrade to premium economy or J class if we apply PlusPoints now versus waiting until closer to the departure date?
   
2. I've come across the "Skip Waitlist" feature, but from what I gather, it's only available on select routes. Does anyone know if the IAD-CDG route is eligible?
   

Points to Consider (Based on my understanding):

• Load Factor: The availability of seats in the upgraded cabin, such as Polaris or Business, could influence the upgrade chances. Dynamics may change as we get closer to the flight date.
  
• Other Premier Members: The number of Premier members, especially those with a higher status, also plays a role as they get upgrade priority.
  
• PlusPoints Usage: Upgrades, especially from Economy to Polaris on international routes, could cost more PlusPoints. Ensuring we have enough points for all passengers is essential.
  
• Booking Strategy:
  
  • Booking early might be beneficial as earlier requests might get higher on the waitlist. Status tier remains a priority, though.
  • It's good to monitor the flight's load factor regularly.
  • Checking in right at the 24-hour mark before the flight could also be a strategic move.

Would greatly appreciate any insights or experiences related to this! Thanks in advance.

If you do not have "expert mode" checked on your profile, do it so that you can see all fare availability; For the upgrade fare codes, you pay attention to PZ (Polaris) and RN (Premium Plus) for 1K Pluspoints. If they are nonzero, the upgrade will be cleared immediately after request.
The answer to your first question is to request immediately after booking. To increase the chance of upgrade, book your flights for departure on either Tue or Wednesday. Friday/Saturday/Sunday is most difficult.
The answer to the second question is no unless UA changes its mind later.
Good luck.