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-   -   [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/1885647-consolidated-chance-upgrade-clearing-my-flight.html)

harischsood Oct 27, 2023 8:43 am


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35698208)
If you do not have "expert mode" checked on your profile, do it so that you can see all fare availability; For the upgrade fare codes, you pay attention to PZ (Polaris) and RN (Premium Plus) for 1K Pluspoints. If they are nonzero, the upgrade will be cleared immediately after request.
The answer to your first question is to request immediately after booking. To increase the chance of upgrade, book your flights for departure on either Tue or Wednesday. Friday/Saturday/Sunday is most difficult.
The answer to the second question is no unless UA changes its mind later.
Good luck.

Thank you for sharing this valuable information it will benefit me for future flights

akb9x Oct 28, 2023 4:13 pm

I used Money & Miles to waitlist upgrade for a flight in one week LAX-SYD. My husband is gold and I am silver, we are booked in a Q fare. I called on Thursday night to check the waitlist and we were at 9 and 10 with 28 open seats. The next day I noticed more than several seats filled in Polaris so I called to check again. I was told that we are now at 1 and 2 with 18 seats open. I had been considering pulling the upgrade and paying up to Premium economy and then reapplying the upgrade, but now I don't think this is necessary? Does this seem like a good position to just keep waiting out the next few days to see if it clears? I felt nervous since obviously we are low on the pole via status.

VRFast Oct 28, 2023 5:20 pm


Originally Posted by akb9x (Post 35701600)
I used Money & Miles to waitlist upgrade for a flight in one week LAX-SYD. My husband is gold and I am silver, we are booked in a Q fare. I called on Thursday night to check the waitlist and we were at 9 and 10 with 28 open seats. The next day I noticed more than several seats filled in Polaris so I called to check again. I was told that we are now at 1 and 2 with 18 seats open. I had been considering pulling the upgrade and paying up to Premium economy and then reapplying the upgrade, but now I don't think this is necessary? Does this seem like a good position to just keep waiting out the next few days to see if it clears? I felt nervous since obviously we are low on the pole via status.

I would ask myself, what if I don't get upgraded, would I be OK with sitting in E+ (assumption based on your husband's Gold status)? Looks like a safe bet to stay as you are, but a lot of things can happen between now and then, a bunch of buy-ups, etc.

crustybooger Oct 28, 2023 8:54 pm

Hello, long time lurker here. What are the chances of this clearing. I had 2 family members booked with the same confirmation number, saw PZ1 so I split them and was able to instant upgrade our mom. For the 2nd passenger, he's currently booked on a R fare and currently waitlisted as #1(checked by changing the date) using plus points. He has no status. looks decent for him?

UA837 on 10/31:

J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN3
PZ0
IN0
I0
O9
ON9
A9
R9
RN2
Y9
YN9
B9
M9
E9
U9
H9
HN9
Q9
V9
W9
S9
T9
L9
K9
G9
XN9
X9

Thank you!

ContinentalFan Oct 28, 2023 10:26 pm


Originally Posted by crustybooger (Post 35702036)
Hello, long time lurker here. What are the chances of this clearing. I had 2 family members booked with the same confirmation number, saw PZ1 so I split them and was able to instant upgrade our mom. For the 2nd passenger, he's currently booked on a R fare and currently waitlisted as #1(checked by changing the date) using plus points. He has no status. looks decent for him?

UA837 on 10/31:

J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN3
PZ0
IN0
I0
O9
ON9
A9
R9
RN2
Y9
YN9
B9
M9
E9
U9
H9
HN9
Q9
V9
W9
S9
T9
L9
K9
G9
XN9
X9

Thank you!

I think I’d be happy in that situation.

VRFast Oct 29, 2023 9:21 am


Originally Posted by crustybooger (Post 35702036)
Hello, long time lurker here. What are the chances of this clearing. I had 2 family members booked with the same confirmation number, saw PZ1 so I split them and was able to instant upgrade our mom. For the 2nd passenger, he's currently booked on a R fare and currently waitlisted as #1(checked by changing the date) using plus points. He has no status. looks decent for him?

UA837 on 10/31:

J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN3
PZ0
IN0
I0
O9
ON9
A9
R9
RN2
Y9
YN9
B9
M9
E9
U9
H9
HN9
Q9
V9
W9
S9
T9
L9
K9
G9
XN9
X9

Thank you!

Looks like it's booked 36/50 in Polaris, so very good chance of being upgraded at #1. You can see the waitlist now for 10/31.

crustybooger Oct 29, 2023 10:57 am


Originally Posted by VRFast (Post 35702879)
Looks like it's booked 36/50 in Polaris, so very good chance of being upgraded at #1. You can see the waitlist now for 10/31.


Actually got the upgrade email at 1am!

jomp589 Oct 29, 2023 5:00 pm

Out of curiosity - wondering what the likelihood of a waitlist upgrade for 2 folks currently booked in Premium Plus (paid, Fare Class O) from DXB - EWR, April 15, 2024 (UA163) for 20K miles. Seat map has only one Polaris seat booked right now (realize it is very early)

Taking a look at recent flights it appears that around 40 to 45 Polaris seats were booked when looking at the upgrade list - and a small number of flyers actually getting the upgrade. Is it possible that the waitlist upgrades clear prior? Or better to periodically call in and see what upgrade cash cost is?

Will be gold status, for what it’s worth.

ContinentalFan Oct 29, 2023 7:28 pm


Originally Posted by jomp589 (Post 35703766)
Out of curiosity - wondering what the likelihood of a waitlist upgrade for 2 folks currently booked in Premium Plus (paid, Fare Class O) from DXB - EWR, April 15, 2024 (UA163) for 20K miles. Seat map has only one Polaris seat booked right now (realize it is very early)

Taking a look at recent flights it appears that around 40 to 45 Polaris seats were booked when looking at the upgrade list - and a small number of flyers actually getting the upgrade. Is it possible that the waitlist upgrades clear prior? Or better to periodically call in and see what upgrade cash cost is?

Will be gold status, for what it’s worth.

.

It would be surprising if you’re upgraded this far out. There’s no benefit to United. I often see some seats clear a few days before the flight with the bulk clearing closer to departure. Keeping track of the option to pay cash is a good idea, but don’t expect to see any deals until closer to departure.

Kacee Oct 29, 2023 8:18 pm


Originally Posted by jomp589 (Post 35703766)
Out of curiosity - wondering what the likelihood of a waitlist upgrade for 2 folks currently booked in Premium Plus (paid, Fare Class O) from DXB - EWR, April 15, 2024 (UA163) for 20K miles.

Beyond noting that Gold will be behind all 1K and Plat in PE, and GS in either Y or PE, it is absolutely impossible to provide meaningful input six months out.

MHively Oct 30, 2023 2:06 pm

Currently a UA Premier Platinum with a multi-city itinerary coming up in a few days. I was looking at the upgrade options and just had a question about one of the options (2 pictures below). With this option, it appears I'll be waitlisted for all three flights. Will I still be charged anything, cash and/or miles, if my MKE-DEN and/or DEN-LAX flight clear into UA First and then no upgrade clears for LAX-EWR? Or is the only stipulation of being charge anything is if I clear into Premium Economy (10k miles) or Polaris (17.5k + $225) on the LAX-EWR flight? I don't want to select this upgrade option and risk being charged any miles and/or cash if only the MKE-DEN segment clears. I hope this makes sense.

Thanks for your assistance!

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...a026960941.jpg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...ac6e6818c7.jpg

Kmxu Oct 30, 2023 2:19 pm


Originally Posted by VRFast (Post 35702879)
Looks like it's booked 36/50 in Polaris, so very good chance of being upgraded at #1. You can see the waitlist now for 10/31.

a slam dunk ;)

WineCountryUA Oct 30, 2023 4:29 pm


Originally Posted by MHively (Post 35706156)
Currently a UA Premier Platinum with a multi-city itinerary coming up in a few days. I was looking at the upgrade options and just had a question about one of the options (2 pictures below). With this option, it appears I'll be waitlisted for all three flights. Will I still be charged anything, cash and/or miles, if my MKE-DEN and/or DEN-LAX flight clear into UA First and then no upgrade clears for LAX-EWR? Or is the only stipulation of being charge anything is if I clear into Premium Economy (10k miles) or Polaris (17.5k + $225) on the LAX-EWR flight? I don't want to select this upgrade option and risk being charged any miles and/or cash if only the MKE-DEN segment clears. I hope this makes sense.

A slight indirect itin :D

You will be charge if any segment clears. Either the MKE-DEN or DEN-LAX clears and the LAX-EWR does not, you will be charges but no idea what you will be charged. I would hop the 10K but have not see this particular case.

exerda Nov 1, 2023 11:00 am


Originally Posted by exerda (Post 35668487)
Looking at 2 options for PHX-xxx-IAD for the night of 11/10 (Friday, but a holiday):
  • PHX-LAX-IAD
  • PHX-SFO-IAD
Both redeyes are on 753s. The downside to the connection in LAX seems to be that it is the same flight # continuing on, which IIRC can cause issues with clearing... the downside to SFO is, well, it's SFO (and also about $200 more expensive).

Thoughts? I know it's way too early to talk loads reasonably, and yes, it's a holiday (Veteran's Day), but Friday night transcon redeyes are something I usually have decent luck at.

As a follow-up on this, the single flight # is indeed causing issues.

I got an email yesterday saying, "Want to upgrade your trip to Los Angeles? Use your miles today!" and went to look... the itin already looked busted, with the 2 segments saying "CPU Requested" as if I'd never applied Plus Points, but also having 2 waitlisted PZ segments (so yes, it seemed aware of the upgrade). But the PHX-LAX segment, which was the one they emailed me about, was marked "Available" for a Plus Points upgrade (also a miles one), and I clicked to choose my seat. So far, so good.

But now, the itin shows the LAX-IAD segment twice, both "Waitlisted PZ," which seems wrong, and I can't pick a seat for it even in Y now. And it's got the dreaded "Call to get your ticket re-synced" error. Haven't had a chance to call yet, but I think the 1-stop, through flight # gremlin is definitely in play. I think picking the seat for PHX-LAX and confirming the upgrade for just that segment busted something for sure.

zzzliner Nov 1, 2023 12:39 pm

Two upgrade questions.

UA999 EWR -> BRU on a Monday
Currently booked in PE on an R fare. Yesterday I manually changed my computer time and saw 343/44 seats booked and I was number 3 on the upgrade list. I feel good about my odds.
J9
JN9
C8
D7
Z5
ZN5
P4
PN0
PZ0
IN0
I0
O5
ON5
A4
R2
RN0


UA135 ZRH -> EWR on a Saturday
I was offered a buy-up upgrade from PE to J for $674 and took it. Based on this I think I made the right call.

J7
JN7
C3
D0
Z0
ZN0
P0
PN0
PZ0
IN0
I0
O7
ON7
A6
R4
RN0

Kmxu Nov 1, 2023 12:57 pm

What are your questions? :)
My answers to your questions: 1) very likely to clear the upgrade and 2) a good move to take the buyup offer to Polaris.
Cheers.

zzzliner Nov 1, 2023 1:26 pm


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35711505)
What are your questions? :)
My answers to your questions: 1) very likely to clear the upgrade and 2) a good move to take the buyup offer to Polaris.
Cheers.

Thanks! My questions were please confirm my prior assumptions :D

beeasyed Nov 1, 2023 10:06 pm

so i booked a NRT-SFO flight for 12/31 in Econ (U fare) $1900... should i bother re-booking in PE for $3500 to improve my chances to P? (lol also there was an immediate $300 upgrade to PE option, $6k+ for P)

i used PlusPoints and waitlisted for upgrades to Polaris and PE. but i guess it's still prob too far out from the flight to know my chances?

as of tonight 11/1
J9
JN9
C9
D9
Z9
ZN9
P9
PN0
PZ0
IN0
I0
O7
ON7
A4
R0
RN0
Y9
YN9
B9
M9
E9
U9
H9
HN9
Q9
V0
W0
S0
T0
L0
K0
G0
XN0
X0

fumje Nov 1, 2023 10:09 pm


Originally Posted by beeasyed (Post 35712628)
so i booked a NRT-SFO flight for 12/31 in Econ (U fare) $1900... should i bother re-booking in PE for $3500 to improve my chances to P? (lol also there was an immediate $300 upgrade to PE option, $6k+ for P)

i used PP and waitlisted for upgrades to Polaris and PE. but i guess it's still prob too far out from the flight to know my chances?

as of tonight 11/1
(clip)

Given the date of the flight, and secondarily the inventory currently, I would be optimistic. I would not buy up in any way.

WineCountryUA Nov 1, 2023 11:11 pm


Originally Posted by beeasyed (Post 35712628)
.... also there was an immediate $300 upgrade to PE option, ....

I would take this in a heart beat. It greatly improves your Polaris upgrade chances and it provide a safety net if upgrade take not occur. While the chances look very good there is a lots of reason upgrades can go upside down.

Kmxu Nov 2, 2023 2:16 am


Originally Posted by WineCountryUA (Post 35712690)
I would take this in a heart beat. It greatly improves your Polaris upgrade chances and it provide a safety net if upgrade take not occur. While the chances look very good there is a lots of reason upgrades can go upside down.

If the chance for upgrade is very good, there is no way that I would exchange $300 for 10 PPs.

WineCountryUA Nov 2, 2023 10:35 am


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35712866)
If the chance for upgrade is very good, there is no way that I would exchange $300 for 10 PPs.

Cheap insurance getting guaranteed PremPlus on the chance, we have different risk profiles. Plus likely puts the nail on the coffin for the Polaris upgrade.

Kmxu Nov 2, 2023 11:14 am


Originally Posted by WineCountryUA (Post 35713975)
Cheap insurance getting guaranteed PremPlus on the chance, we have different risk profiles. Plus likely puts the nail on the coffin for the Polaris upgrade.

Well, the buyup money won't be refunded if OP changes flight before the trip. The upgrade from PremPlus to Polaris is not always a slam duck. See this post: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35713660-post1128.html

nomad420 Nov 2, 2023 11:27 am


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35714074)
The upgrade from PremPlus to Polaris is not always a slam duck. See this post: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35713660-post1128.html

I recently failed as well but at least having the PP seat made the TATL "tolerable". In the reference post the buy-up to Polaris was $617, I would have pulled the trigger on that in a heart beat but alas I never saw anything near that number.

WineCountryUA Nov 2, 2023 11:52 am


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35714074)
Well, the buyup money won't be refunded if OP changes flight before the trip....

Yes, that is a factor, depends on your travel pattern.


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35714074)
The upgrade from PremPlus to Polaris is not always a slam duck. See this post: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/35713660-post1128.html

Yes, but with the buyup you got PremPlus

My point was exactly this a "pretty good chance" is not a guarantee and the PremPlus buyup guarantees not cattle class economy. While some (much younger than I) are willing to rough it for 11+ hour flights in economy, I am not. And at $25 / hour upgrade, that is about as cheap as you are likely to get PremPlus.

nomad420 Nov 2, 2023 12:02 pm


Originally Posted by WineCountryUA (Post 35714161)
My point was exactly this a "pretty good chance" is not a guarantee and the PremPlus buyup guarantees not cattle class economy. While some (much younger than I) are willing to rough it for 11+ hour flights in economy, I am not. And at $25 / hour upgrade, that is about as cheap as you are likely to get PremPlus.

It is all about your risk tolerance. I, like you, can't sit in E for anywhere near 11 hrs. For me the PremPlus seat was at least adequate but my wife "will never do it again". However, it is frustrating not having your PPs clear and expire worthless as they have all to often.

rewqion Nov 3, 2023 12:44 am

Getting close to 2 weeks out on a SFO-PVG flight, upgrading from economy G as Gold.

Relevant fare class availability ...P9...R9...G5 XN5
54/60 business seats are unselected, as are 8 free in PE.

So this is looking wide open? Unless there's a 40+ economy Platinum+ members looking to upgrade (assuming everyone in PE is moving up as well)

RobOnLI Nov 3, 2023 9:03 am


Originally Posted by rewqion (Post 35715612)
Getting close to 2 weeks out on a SFO-PVG flight, upgrading from economy G as Gold.

Relevant fare class availability ...P9...R9...G5 XN5
54/60 business seats are unselected, as are 8 free in PE.

So this is looking wide open? Unless there's a 40+ economy Platinum+ members looking to upgrade (assuming everyone in PE is moving up as well)

Open seats on a seat map are a horrible indicator of true availability. This is especially true on flights to/from Asia where (in general) people from that part of the world usually don't select seats during booking. However, with P9R9 I'd say you're looking very good.

-RM

SimplySanrio Nov 5, 2023 9:38 pm

Hi All, wanted to get some advice on a March SNA-SFO-ICN roundtrip and chances to upgrade. I am 1K and will be 1K next year. I booked Economy (L) and was given the cash upgrade option to Premium Plus:
SFO-ICN $1018 - Passed on this
ICN-SFO $400 - I bought this and am waitlisted for Polaris with PP with fingers crossed to get an upgrade.

I am considering request MUA to waitlist SNA-SFO-ICN to First/Polaris for 30k miles/$600 copay.

Do you think I should just watch the SFO-ICN Premium Plus cash upgrade option and try for a PP upgrade or stick with the MUA upgrade waitlist?

Thanks for any advice!

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...cde3bcd687.jpg

mswheeler Nov 7, 2023 1:54 pm

LAX-LHR
Three days out. Booked in L. Number 3 and 4 on the business upgrade list. Opinions on our chances? Relatively new to the game. Feels tight to me. Was J9 yesterday morning.
  • J6 JN6 C5 D4 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O2 ON2 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 XN9 X9

prometa Nov 7, 2023 2:09 pm


Originally Posted by mswheeler (Post 35726981)
Three days out. Booked in L. Number 3 and 4 on the business upgrade list. Opinions on our chances? Relatively new to the game. Feels tight to me. Was J9 yesterday morning.
  • J6 JN6 C5 D4 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O2 ON2 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 XN9 X9

What's the origin/destination? The number of late-in bookings depends a lot on route.

prometa Nov 7, 2023 2:12 pm


Originally Posted by SimplySanrio (Post 35722574)
Hi All, wanted to get some advice on a March SNA-SFO-ICN roundtrip and chances to upgrade. I am 1K and will be 1K next year. I booked Economy (L) and was given the cash upgrade option to Premium Plus:
SFO-ICN $1018 - Passed on this
ICN-SFO $400 - I bought this and am waitlisted for Polaris with PP with fingers crossed to get an upgrade.

I am considering request MUA to waitlist SNA-SFO-ICN to First/Polaris for 30k miles/$600 copay.

Do you think I should just watch the SFO-ICN Premium Plus cash upgrade option and try for a PP upgrade or stick with the MUA upgrade waitlist?

Thanks for any advice!

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...cde3bcd687.jpg

This far out, I doubt your position on the waitlist will be affected by time of request, so there is no harm in waiting to see if the price for R comes down.

jsloan Nov 7, 2023 7:14 pm


Originally Posted by mswheeler (Post 35726981)
LAX-LHR
Three days out. Booked in L. Number 3 and 4 on the business upgrade list. Opinions on our chances? Relatively new to the game. Feels tight to me. Was J9 yesterday morning.
  • J6 JN6 C5 D4 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O2 ON2 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 XN9 X9

I'd say your chances aren't great. :(

gordita Nov 8, 2023 11:20 am

Folks, I'm scheduled to depart from EWR - JNB on UA 188 on Monday, 11/13.
I bought a W economy ticket and my relative was kind enough to apply her points for a Polaris upgrade.
currently, 40% of business seats are available but my upgrade has not gone through.
what additional checks can I do to gauge upgrade success (I am not sure how to check my waitlist number or if there's PZ availability (not sure what PZ stands for))
It's a 14.5hr flight so....getting anxious.
Thanks for pointing me in the right direction!

ironmanjt Nov 8, 2023 11:30 am


Originally Posted by gordita (Post 35729232)
Folks, I'm scheduled to depart from EWR - JNB on UA 188 on Monday, 11/13.
I bought a W economy ticket and my relative was kind enough to apply her points for a Polaris upgrade.
currently, 40% of business seats are available but my upgrade has not gone through.
what additional checks can I do to gauge upgrade success (I am not sure how to check my waitlist number or if there's PZ availability (not sure what PZ stands for))
It's a 14.5hr flight so....getting anxious.
Thanks for pointing me in the right direction!

Flight is PZ=0 (upgrade bucket) and PN=0 (Global Services upgrade bucket) but P9 with 15+ seats still for sale. Your chances of clearing are very high unless impacted by cancellations.

I do this route frequently, and find United often does a sweep up the upgrade list 3-4 days prior to departure and again around 2 days....and then most everything will go down to the gate.

My recommendation would be to keep watching "Flight Status" in the app, and around 60-72 hrs prior to departure the upgrade list will start to show, along with how many seats are left. Good luck!

Kmxu Nov 8, 2023 11:35 am


Originally Posted by ironmanjt (Post 35729258)
Flight is PZ=0 (upgrade bucket) and PN=0 (Global Services upgrade bucket) but P9 with 15+ seats still for sale. Your chances of clearing are very high unless impacted by cancellations.

I do this route frequently, and find United often does a sweep up the upgrade list 3-4 days prior to departure and again around 2 days....and then most everything will go down to the gate.

My recommendation would be to keep watching "Flight Status" in the app, and around 60-72 hrs prior to departure the upgrade list will start to show, along with how many seats are left. Good luck!

If OP is the impatient type and not willing to call UA, OP can change the date to the travel date on the phone, open united.com and check flight status and upgrade waiting list.
Good luck.

ironmanjt Nov 8, 2023 11:38 am


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35729277)
If OP is the impatient type and not willing to call UA, OP can change the date to the travel date on the phone, open united.com and check flight status and upgrade waiting list.
Good luck.

Tried this tip, and while it allows me to "see" the flight the Standby and Upgrade lists are greyed out.

flyer1337 Nov 8, 2023 11:43 am

I'm on a short haul to EWR, then a long haul international flight (SAT-EWR). I've requested upgrade for international flight (40pts EWR-DEL). Is it worth the gamble to request on the short haul to EWR as well? Burning 20 points to EWR does not seem worth it.

Kmxu Nov 8, 2023 2:16 pm

"EWR - JNB on UA 188 on Monday, 11/13" is within a week. It should work unless your travel date is beyond 14 Nov..

Kacee Nov 8, 2023 5:16 pm


Originally Posted by Kmxu (Post 35729738)
"EWR - JNB on UA 188 on Monday, 11/13" is within a week. It should work unless your travel date is beyond 14 Nov..

But not on the app, just the website.


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