[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Hi! My husband and I have an upcoming flight from EWR to CPT (UA 1122) and I was curious what are the chances of us getting upgraded to business at this point?
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I would say the odds of getting the upgrade are low. With only two seats left, someone will pay for the upgrade outright.
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Originally Posted by lovlab77
(Post 35629291)
Curious what anyone thinks the odds of this are!
You can check the upgrade list yourself here: https://www.united.com/en/us/flights...-04/EWR/CPT/UA Unfortunately it doesn't look promising for your upgrades to clear. However, since you have Premium Plus seats, your flight will still be enjoyable, as those seats are still very nice. Enjoy South Africa! |
Only 1 seat left actually ... don't look at the seat map! Unless there are irops (which at EWR are common :) ) there is not a great chance to make that UG.
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Thank you!!! That link is super helpful I didn't know that existed :)
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Hey all,
The wife and I are scheduled to fly UA1111 SFO-LIH on Saturday October 14 (a little less than 2 weeks from now). I put in for a MUA back in July, and now that we're approaching game time, wondering what folks' gut feelings are on the chances of the upgrade clearing. A few datapoints:
Thanks in advance for the thoughts! |
What is the current inventory for the flight? You can turn on expert mode to see.
Don't always rely on seat map. Third-party bookings don't always have seat selections by default. |
Originally Posted by Repooc17
(Post 35630282)
What is the current inventory for the flight? You can turn on expert mode to see.
Don't always rely on seat map. Third-party bookings don't always have seat selections by default. Full inventory is: J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0 So there's one deep-discount P fare left, and 3 discount Z fares, if I'm interpreting that right. |
Originally Posted by muaddib89
(Post 35630156)
Hey all,
The wife and I are scheduled to fly UA1111 SFO-LIH on Saturday October 14 (a little less than 2 weeks from now). I put in for a MUA back in July, and now that we're approaching game time, wondering what folks' gut feelings are on the chances of the upgrade clearing. A few datapoints:
Thanks in advance for the thoughts! |
Huzzah! I didn't know this trick still worked. Just looked and we're #4 and #5, respectively. Fingers crossed! Thanks for the help.
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Originally Posted by jsloan
(Post 35486063)
IAD-HND, in particular, has been a more upgrade-friendly route than most throughout much of the summer. What days of the week are you traveling?
Looking at the current flights, it's really surprising to see PZ9 (and 16+ Polaris seats still open for the flight) ~8 hours from departure (the one scheduled for Oct 3, with P+ seat availability indicating oversold P+ class), PZ2 for UA 804 scheduled for a week out, and PN9 for the same scheduled flight two weeks out. The flight from two weeks out also has a J vs P+ differential of only ~$1,200 one way, which is really low for flights to/from Japan. Is this seeming availability normal or is this a mirage? Also, it's somewhat surprising to see so many on the waitlist yet to be cleared with less than 8 hours from departure. I don't think our flight from TPE ever showed PZ9, but we were cleared at ~T-36. I'm somewhat tempted to suggest him to fly from IAD to HND on the codeshared ANA flight on P+ (as it offers lounge service) and then fly back on UA P+, putting in an upgrade right away for the hopes of having it clear/ or do the straight buy-up if the cost is indeed $1,200 or less. |
Originally Posted by e_chappy
(Post 35631211)
Is this seeming availability normal or is this a mirage?
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Originally Posted by jsloan
(Post 35631287)
For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.
EWR-NRT slightly more difficult. |
Originally Posted by narvik
(Post 35631385)
EWR-HND-EWR is also an easy upgrade, and has been since ~April (mid week).
EWR-NRT slightly more difficult. Polaris on NRT-EWR is almost full with PN0 and PZ0. Polaris on HND-EWR is not full, with PN9 and PZ7. And here I thought HND would be more popular (30 minutes by train from downtown Tokyo). Will definitely keep this in mind for future reference. Many thanks to you and to @jsloan. |
Originally Posted by e_chappy
(Post 35631621)
And here I thought HND would be more popular (30 minutes by train from downtown Tokyo).
And NRT gets lots of connecting traffic. |
Originally Posted by jsloan
(Post 35631287)
For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.
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I think this is the right thread - waitlisted on a flight to SIN (2 people on the reservation). Purchased premium plus (A fare). Had a GS apply PP for an upgrade to Polaris. Currently 2 and 3 on the list. We have no expectation that the upgrade will clear but on the off chance there are seats that are available (or just 2) is there a way to avoid the upgrades going to numbers 1 and 4 on the list?
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Originally Posted by subinf
(Post 35634796)
I think this is the right thread - waitlisted on a flight to SIN (2 people on the reservation). Purchased premium plus (A fare). Had a GS apply PP for an upgrade to Polaris. Currently 2 and 3 on the list. We have no expectation that the upgrade will clear but on the off chance there are seats that are available (or just 2) is there a way to avoid the upgrades going to numbers 1 and 4 on the list?
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Misunderstanding inventory loads -- are connecting flights "married"?
Hello Flyer Talk!
Just to make sure I understand what I’m looking for when obsessing about the possibility of an upgrade on my PHX-EWR-LHR flight on Sun Oct 22, for which the upgrade prospects look dismal…. No status member booked on: UA2011 PHX-EWR (B) UA940 EWR-LHR (R) I have the options to change to several different connecting flights at a negligible ($25) cost. One of them looks like this when I review the itinerary – not promising: UA 1217 PHX-IAD (B) J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 UA924 IAD-LHR (R) J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8 But if I search only for the TATL leg, it shows as UA924 IAD-LHR (R) J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 PZ4 IN3 I3 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8 PZ4! Have I been misreading inventory loads all along – not understanding that with a connecting flight they would be “married?” And am I now seeing that the TATL leg, which is the one I care most about, actually has PZ inventory? Before I pull the trigger, is it correct that if I switch the flight (and the PZ inventory is still there), I can grab it with a MUA? As always, FlyerTalk, thanks for the advice! |
Originally Posted by dirkhotel
(Post 35636324)
Hello Flyer Talk!
Just to make sure I understand what I’m looking for when obsessing about the possibility of an upgrade on my PHX-EWR-LHR flight on Sun Oct 22, for which the upgrade prospects look dismal…. No status member booked on: UA2011 PHX-EWR (B) UA940 EWR-LHR (R) I have the options to change to several different connecting flights at a negligible ($25) cost. One of them looks like this when I review the itinerary – not promising: UA 1217 PHX-IAD (B) J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 UA924 IAD-LHR (R) J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8 But if I search only for the TATL leg, it shows as UA924 IAD-LHR (R) J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 PZ4 IN3 I3 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8 PZ4! Have I been misreading inventory loads all along – not understanding that with a connecting flight they would be “married?” And am I now seeing that the TATL leg, which is the one I care most about, actually has PZ inventory? Before I pull the trigger, is it correct that if I switch the flight (and the PZ inventory is still there), I can grab it with a MUA? As always, FlyerTalk, thanks for the advice! |
Originally Posted by leftysauce
(Post 35636329)
UA unfortunately switched to displayed married inventory for PN/PZ and award spaces a month or two ago which is extremely annoying. But yes, if individual PZ is available, you should clear immediately on that segment
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It's not married inventory; if it were, you couldn't clear the overwater segment separately, rather you'd need PZ on both segments to clear. What OP is seeing is just a UA display convention (and as jsloan notes, this is a return to how UA has displayed inventory for many years, with only a brief recent respite).
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What are my chances? :)
UA 875 SFO-HND Fri Oct 20 Purchased Economy (L) Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600) Platinum Status 18 "available" Polaris seats and 0 "available" Premium Plus seats on seat map. J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O3 ON3 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W8 S5 T3 L1 K0 G0 XN4 X0 |
Originally Posted by merges
(Post 35645316)
What are my chances? :)
UA 875 SFO-HND Fri Oct 20 Purchased Economy (L) Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600) Platinum Status 18 "available" Polaris seats and 0 "available" Premium Plus seats on seat map. J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O3 ON3 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W8 S5 T3 L1 K0 G0 XN4 X0 |
Originally Posted by merges
(Post 35645316)
Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600)
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Would be curios to see what people think my chances are..
UA 801 LAX-HKG - Thursday November 23rd (Thanksgiving Day) UA 802 HKG-LAX - Tuesday November 28th Both Purchased Economy (W) Both Waitlisted for PlusPoint Upgrade 1K Status |
Use award or buy ticket to upgrade?
First time poster, long time lurker. I'm platinum on UAL, and booked an XN award flight from Brisbane --> LAX--> ORD. I've got 40 plus points that are going to expire 1/1/24. I want to not sit in economy (I'm 6'4, and it's soooo long). The United Premier Plus upgrade is ridiculously priced at $5100, with the base fare of $1300 for economy, and they are all open. Been checking prices, and they're not moving. Wondering if I should cancel the award ticket and buy a regular economy ticket, and try my luck with the plus points. Has anyone ever done this?
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All GS-enabled upgrade request and everyone in PremPlus (TPAC)fares w/ requests in, as well as 1Ks in coach will be ahead of you. United typically oversells PremPlus, so that reduces inventory up front also. Your chances of success are.greatly diminished by all this. My guess is you will still be in a coach seat.
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Originally Posted by Dabizz33
(Post 35651892)
Wondering if I should cancel the award ticket and buy a regular economy ticket, and try my luck with the plus points.
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Originally Posted by jsloan
(Post 35596200)
Good news; it looks like someone's had a change of heart. Inventory on your outbound has gone up to J4. I'd say you're still less than a 50% shot, but much better than J2, which was essentially no shot.
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Colleague is flying IAD-CDG on 11/11 (Saturday night), booked 16/50, P9PN0PZ0, as it has been for months, and the colleague (plat) is #12 on the waitlist. Not sure how loads will change as we get close in, since it's off-peak and a weekend flight. What are the chances?
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Originally Posted by ibush01
(Post 35655753)
Thanks for keeping an eye on this! I bought up to P+ and we were then #1-2 on the Polaris upgrade list. But there was only one seat remaining when we got to the gate and we were passed over for #3 (you're welcome, whoever you were).
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Originally Posted by PanAmWT
(Post 35656249)
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?
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Originally Posted by Kacee
(Post 35657760)
No, you're not. Post check-in, upgrades should be processed in order, with multi-pax PNR split to accommodate the upgrade.
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Originally Posted by PanAmWT
(Post 35656249)
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?
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Can we all agree for OP or a mod to change the topic of this thread
From: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight" To: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight :rolleyes:" |
Originally Posted by jsloan
(Post 35658113)
I interpreted it as OP turning down the upgrade to prevent being split.
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Originally Posted by ibush01
(Post 35661523)
No — I/we didn't turn it down. We were never offered the chance (I would have given it to my dad and then STEWED the whole flight). Just before boarding, the upgrade screen listed us as #1-2 and then the #3 name showed as upgrade confirmed.
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Don’t underestimate the number of people who at/near boarding who will buy up if they see no chance otherwise. Being #1/2 on waitlist with 1 or 2 seats left is primed for disappointment. #1/2 w/ 5 seats left in less that 8 hours, I’m feeling better.
Even if I’m #5 w/ 7 seats on a flight in two days, I’m assuming I’m out of luck. I’m starting to watch buy-ups at that time. |
Chance of upgrading on SFO-MCO on the redeye 10/31? I’m a 1K under K fare. Traveling with the gf so she bugging me hoping it clears. Like 12 seats left on the 757-3. I see a lot of economy plus seats empty which tells me not many elites on it currently. Which could change. I give it maybe 20% it clears
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