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-   -   [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/united-airlines-mileageplus/1885647-consolidated-chance-upgrade-clearing-my-flight.html)

lovlab77 Oct 2, 2023 4:26 am

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
 
Hi! My husband and I have an upcoming flight from EWR to CPT (UA 1122) and I was curious what are the chances of us getting upgraded to business at this point?
  • 2 out of 48 business seats remaining
  • Flight is in less than 72 hours (Weds Oct 4 at 8:30 pm ET)
  • Our purchased fare class is United Premium Plus (A)
  • Purchased 2 MileagePlus Upgrade Certificates in Dec 2022 ($450 + 35k miles each, for those curious!)
  • No status for either, but my husband has United Club MileagePlus credit card + my account is linked to United Corporate Preferred
  • UA Agent said we're number 1 and 2 on upgrade list
Curious what anyone thinks the odds of this are! It's our honeymoon so I'm really hoping it works out--but not enough to pay $15k per ticket...I'm not feeling overwhelmingly hopeful but my fingers are crossed....

sannmann Oct 2, 2023 4:29 am

I would say the odds of getting the upgrade are low. With only two seats left, someone will pay for the upgrade outright.

narvik Oct 2, 2023 4:37 am


Originally Posted by lovlab77 (Post 35629291)
Curious what anyone thinks the odds of this are!

Welcome to Flyertalk, and congrats.

You can check the upgrade list yourself here: https://www.united.com/en/us/flights...-04/EWR/CPT/UA

Unfortunately it doesn't look promising for your upgrades to clear.
However, since you have Premium Plus seats, your flight will still be enjoyable, as those seats are still very nice.
Enjoy South Africa!

cfischer Oct 2, 2023 5:20 am

Only 1 seat left actually ... don't look at the seat map! Unless there are irops (which at EWR are common :) ) there is not a great chance to make that UG.

lovlab77 Oct 2, 2023 5:49 am

Thank you!!! That link is super helpful I didn't know that existed :)

muaddib89 Oct 2, 2023 10:57 am

Hey all,

The wife and I are scheduled to fly UA1111 SFO-LIH on Saturday October 14 (a little less than 2 weeks from now). I put in for a MUA back in July, and now that we're approaching game time, wondering what folks' gut feelings are on the chances of the upgrade clearing.

A few datapoints:
  • For months now, the same 7 out of 16 seats in F have been open on the seat map (1A-F, 3A, and 4E-F), so doesn't seem that people have been biting at buy-up offers or booking F outright.
  • The same flight UA1111 leaving this coming Saturday Oct 7 still has 4 open seats in F, with F prices about $100 lower than my flight.
  • Flight is PN0 and PZ0.
  • Full inventory is
    J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
    Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0
    S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0
  • We're currently seated in Y+ on V fares.
  • Buy-up price from Y to F has gone down in recent weeks to $500, which makes me nervous these seats might fill up.
  • I don't have status, but do have the Chase club card.

Thanks in advance for the thoughts!

Repooc17 Oct 2, 2023 11:40 am

What is the current inventory for the flight? You can turn on expert mode to see.

Don't always rely on seat map. Third-party bookings don't always have seat selections by default.

muaddib89 Oct 2, 2023 12:03 pm


Originally Posted by Repooc17 (Post 35630282)
What is the current inventory for the flight? You can turn on expert mode to see.

Don't always rely on seat map. Third-party bookings don't always have seat selections by default.


Full inventory is:
J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0
S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0

So there's one deep-discount P fare left, and 3 discount Z fares, if I'm interpreting that right.

N104UA Oct 2, 2023 3:57 pm


Originally Posted by muaddib89 (Post 35630156)
Hey all,

The wife and I are scheduled to fly UA1111 SFO-LIH on Saturday October 14 (a little less than 2 weeks from now). I put in for a MUA back in July, and now that we're approaching game time, wondering what folks' gut feelings are on the chances of the upgrade clearing.

A few datapoints:
  • For months now, the same 7 out of 16 seats in F have been open on the seat map (1A-F, 3A, and 4E-F), so doesn't seem that people have been biting at buy-up offers or booking F outright.
  • The same flight UA1111 leaving this coming Saturday Oct 7 still has 4 open seats in F, with F prices about $100 lower than my flight.
  • Flight is PN0 and PZ0.
  • Full inventory is
    J7 JN7 C7 D7 Z3 ZN3 P1 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0
    Y7 YN7 B7 M5 E4 U3 H2 HN2 Q0 V0 W0
    S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N7 XN0 X0
  • We're currently seated in Y+ on V fares.
  • Buy-up price from Y to F has gone down in recent weeks to $500, which makes me nervous these seats might fill up.
  • I don't have status, but do have the Chase club card.

Thanks in advance for the thoughts!

if you play with the date features on your computer to 10/13 you can see the upgrade list when you search for the flight. It looks like 29 on the upgrade list. pull the list yourself and see if you are in the top 7, I would say maybe if you are in the top 3, but Hawaii is rare for upgrades as UA is good at selling those seats in advance or at checkin
​​​​​

muaddib89 Oct 2, 2023 4:28 pm

Huzzah! I didn't know this trick still worked. Just looked and we're #4 and #5, respectively. Fingers crossed! Thanks for the help.

e_chappy Oct 2, 2023 5:11 pm


Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 35486063)
IAD-HND, in particular, has been a more upgrade-friendly route than most throughout much of the summer. What days of the week are you traveling?

After having some luck with our upgrade from TPE to SFO, I'm now looking at routes from HND to IAD, as my elderly father is contemplating a trip next February.

Looking at the current flights, it's really surprising to see PZ9 (and 16+ Polaris seats still open for the flight) ~8 hours from departure (the one scheduled for Oct 3, with P+ seat availability indicating oversold P+ class), PZ2 for UA 804 scheduled for a week out, and PN9 for the same scheduled flight two weeks out. The flight from two weeks out also has a J vs P+ differential of only ~$1,200 one way, which is really low for flights to/from Japan. Is this seeming availability normal or is this a mirage?

Also, it's somewhat surprising to see so many on the waitlist yet to be cleared with less than 8 hours from departure. I don't think our flight from TPE ever showed PZ9, but we were cleared at ~T-36.

I'm somewhat tempted to suggest him to fly from IAD to HND on the codeshared ANA flight on P+ (as it offers lounge service) and then fly back on UA P+, putting in an upgrade right away for the hopes of having it clear/ or do the straight buy-up if the cost is indeed $1,200 or less.

jsloan Oct 2, 2023 5:47 pm


Originally Posted by e_chappy (Post 35631211)
Is this seeming availability normal or is this a mirage?

For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.

narvik Oct 2, 2023 6:37 pm


Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 35631287)
For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.

EWR-HND-EWR is also an easy upgrade, and has been since ~April (mid week).

EWR-NRT slightly more difficult.

e_chappy Oct 2, 2023 9:01 pm


Originally Posted by narvik (Post 35631385)
EWR-HND-EWR is also an easy upgrade, and has been since ~April (mid week).

EWR-NRT slightly more difficult.

This one is interesting for the flights on Oct 3.

Polaris on NRT-EWR is almost full with PN0 and PZ0.

Polaris on HND-EWR is not full, with PN9 and PZ7.

And here I thought HND would be more popular (30 minutes by train from downtown Tokyo).

Will definitely keep this in mind for future reference.

Many thanks to you and to @jsloan.

Kacee Oct 2, 2023 10:15 pm


Originally Posted by e_chappy (Post 35631621)
And here I thought HND would be more popular (30 minutes by train from downtown Tokyo).

But two hours for immigration :-)

And NRT gets lots of connecting traffic.

Kmxu Oct 3, 2023 6:09 am


Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 35631287)
For some reason, that route simply doesn't seem to be selling well, compared to the rest of UA's Japan flights.

NH's IAD-HND flight departs at nearly the same time as UA's flight and has a nicer aircraft type (B787 vs B777). It may be better off for UA to have IAD-NRT and IAH-HND, instead of IAD-HND and IAH-NRT.

subinf Oct 3, 2023 9:51 pm

I think this is the right thread - waitlisted on a flight to SIN (2 people on the reservation). Purchased premium plus (A fare). Had a GS apply PP for an upgrade to Polaris. Currently 2 and 3 on the list. We have no expectation that the upgrade will clear but on the off chance there are seats that are available (or just 2) is there a way to avoid the upgrades going to numbers 1 and 4 on the list?

Kacee Oct 3, 2023 10:02 pm


Originally Posted by subinf (Post 35634796)
I think this is the right thread - waitlisted on a flight to SIN (2 people on the reservation). Purchased premium plus (A fare). Had a GS apply PP for an upgrade to Polaris. Currently 2 and 3 on the list. We have no expectation that the upgrade will clear but on the off chance there are seats that are available (or just 2) is there a way to avoid the upgrades going to numbers 1 and 4 on the list?

You can split the reservation, and UA will process upgrades one at a time. Note that beginning at check-in, UA will automatically split the reservation if upgrade seats are available, so from that point on, there's no risk of getting skipped in favor of #4.

dirkhotel Oct 4, 2023 11:22 am

Misunderstanding inventory loads -- are connecting flights "married"?
 
Hello Flyer Talk!

Just to make sure I understand what I’m looking for when obsessing about the possibility of an upgrade on my PHX-EWR-LHR flight on Sun Oct 22, for which the upgrade prospects look dismal…. No status member booked on:

UA2011 PHX-EWR (B)
UA940 EWR-LHR (R)

I have the options to change to several different connecting flights at a negligible ($25) cost. One of them looks like this when I review the itinerary – not promising:

UA 1217 PHX-IAD (B)
J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0

UA924 IAD-LHR (R)
J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8

But if I search only for the TATL leg, it shows as
UA924 IAD-LHR (R)
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 PZ4 IN3 I3 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8

PZ4! Have I been misreading inventory loads all along – not understanding that with a connecting flight they would be “married?”

And am I now seeing that the TATL leg, which is the one I care most about, actually has PZ inventory? Before I pull the trigger, is it correct that if I switch the flight (and the PZ inventory is still there), I can grab it with a MUA?

As always, FlyerTalk, thanks for the advice!

leftysauce Oct 4, 2023 11:25 am


Originally Posted by dirkhotel (Post 35636324)
Hello Flyer Talk!

Just to make sure I understand what I’m looking for when obsessing about the possibility of an upgrade on my PHX-EWR-LHR flight on Sun Oct 22, for which the upgrade prospects look dismal…. No status member booked on:

UA2011 PHX-EWR (B)
UA940 EWR-LHR (R)

I have the options to change to several different connecting flights at a negligible ($25) cost. One of them looks like this when I review the itinerary – not promising:

UA 1217 PHX-IAD (B)
J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0

UA924 IAD-LHR (R)
J3 JN3 C3 D3 Z3 ZN3 P3 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8

But if I search only for the TATL leg, it shows as
UA924 IAD-LHR (R)
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P9 PN4 PZ4 IN3 I3 O9 ON9 A9 R9 RN8

PZ4! Have I been misreading inventory loads all along – not understanding that with a connecting flight they would be “married?”

And am I now seeing that the TATL leg, which is the one I care most about, actually has PZ inventory? Before I pull the trigger, is it correct that if I switch the flight (and the PZ inventory is still there), I can grab it with a MUA?

As always, FlyerTalk, thanks for the advice!

UA unfortunately switched to displayed married inventory for PN/PZ and award spaces a month or two ago which is extremely annoying. But yes, if individual PZ is available, you should clear immediately on that segment

jsloan Oct 4, 2023 11:40 am


Originally Posted by leftysauce (Post 35636329)
UA unfortunately switched to displayed married inventory for PN/PZ and award spaces a month or two ago which is extremely annoying. But yes, if individual PZ is available, you should clear immediately on that segment

Specifically, switched back to it. It had been done that way for years. It was a breath of fresh air when they briefly showed PN/PZ independently on connecting flights, but unfortunately that time seems to have passed. :(

Kacee Oct 4, 2023 12:07 pm

It's not married inventory; if it were, you couldn't clear the overwater segment separately, rather you'd need PZ on both segments to clear. What OP is seeing is just a UA display convention (and as jsloan notes, this is a return to how UA has displayed inventory for many years, with only a brief recent respite).

merges Oct 7, 2023 2:06 pm

What are my chances? :)

UA 875 SFO-HND Fri Oct 20
Purchased Economy (L)
Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600)
Platinum Status

18 "available" Polaris seats and 0 "available" Premium Plus seats on seat map.
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O3 ON3 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W8 S5 T3 L1 K0 G0 XN4 X0

fumje Oct 7, 2023 5:29 pm


Originally Posted by merges (Post 35645316)
What are my chances? :)

UA 875 SFO-HND Fri Oct 20
Purchased Economy (L)
Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600)
Platinum Status

18 "available" Polaris seats and 0 "available" Premium Plus seats on seat map.
J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P8 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O3 ON3 A2 R0 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W8 S5 T3 L1 K0 G0 XN4 X0

Not great. It's not hopeless, could happen, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.

Kacee Oct 7, 2023 8:26 pm


Originally Posted by merges (Post 35645316)
Waitlisted for MileagePlus Upgrade Award to Polaris (30k + $600)

I'd be watching for a cash upgrade offer - you're in at least $900 for the miles + copay (assuming minimum value of 1 cpp).

JWWI Oct 9, 2023 8:14 am

Would be curios to see what people think my chances are..

UA 801 LAX-HKG - Thursday November 23rd (Thanksgiving Day)
UA 802 HKG-LAX - Tuesday November 28th
Both Purchased Economy (W)
Both Waitlisted for PlusPoint Upgrade
1K Status

Dabizz33 Oct 10, 2023 6:50 am

Use award or buy ticket to upgrade?
 
First time poster, long time lurker. I'm platinum on UAL, and booked an XN award flight from Brisbane --> LAX--> ORD. I've got 40 plus points that are going to expire 1/1/24. I want to not sit in economy (I'm 6'4, and it's soooo long). The United Premier Plus upgrade is ridiculously priced at $5100, with the base fare of $1300 for economy, and they are all open. Been checking prices, and they're not moving. Wondering if I should cancel the award ticket and buy a regular economy ticket, and try my luck with the plus points. Has anyone ever done this?

IAH-OIL-TRASH Oct 10, 2023 10:11 am

All GS-enabled upgrade request and everyone in PremPlus (TPAC)fares w/ requests in, as well as 1Ks in coach will be ahead of you. United typically oversells PremPlus, so that reduces inventory up front also. Your chances of success are.greatly diminished by all this. My guess is you will still be in a coach seat.

Kacee Oct 10, 2023 10:43 am


Originally Posted by Dabizz33 (Post 35651892)
Wondering if I should cancel the award ticket and buy a regular economy ticket, and try my luck with the plus points.

Whether you'll have a shot will depend on how heavily the flight is booked. It it's a light load, you have a chance; otherwise, the odds are very low.

ibush01 Oct 11, 2023 1:32 pm


Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 35596200)
Good news; it looks like someone's had a change of heart. Inventory on your outbound has gone up to J4. I'd say you're still less than a 50% shot, but much better than J2, which was essentially no shot.

Thanks for keeping an eye on this! I bought up to P+ and we were then #1-2 on the Polaris upgrade list. But there was only one seat remaining when we got to the gate and we were passed over for #3 (you're welcome, whoever you were). I ended up buying up to Polaris on MUC-EWR home. I checked; no upgrades cleared, as you suspected. One of these days (better be soon) I'll get to use these hundreds of PlusPoints...

prometa Oct 11, 2023 2:30 pm

Colleague is flying IAD-CDG on 11/11 (Saturday night), booked 16/50, P9PN0PZ0, as it has been for months, and the colleague (plat) is #12 on the waitlist. Not sure how loads will change as we get close in, since it's off-peak and a weekend flight. What are the chances?

PanAmWT Oct 11, 2023 4:31 pm


Originally Posted by ibush01 (Post 35655753)
Thanks for keeping an eye on this! I bought up to P+ and we were then #1-2 on the Polaris upgrade list. But there was only one seat remaining when we got to the gate and we were passed over for #3 (you're welcome, whoever you were).

I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?

Kacee Oct 12, 2023 8:29 am


Originally Posted by PanAmWT (Post 35656249)
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?

No, you're not. Post check-in, upgrades should be processed in order, with multi-pax PNR split to accommodate the upgrade.

prometa Oct 12, 2023 10:01 am


Originally Posted by Kacee (Post 35657760)
No, you're not. Post check-in, upgrades should be processed in order, with multi-pax PNR split to accommodate the upgrade.

But if #3 buys up to Polaris within D-24, it sometimes shows as upgraded on the upgrade list.

jsloan Oct 12, 2023 10:35 am


Originally Posted by PanAmWT (Post 35656249)
I thought within D-24h the upgrade goes by the order of individuals on the WL, regardless of whether there are companions. So if only one space is open, it goes to #1, Namely, it should not skip #1-#2 to go the next single traveler. Prior to D-24h the #1-#2 will be skipped, but not within D-24h. Am I wrong?

I interpreted it as OP turning down the upgrade to prevent being split.

technique Oct 12, 2023 10:51 am

Can we all agree for OP or a mod to change the topic of this thread

From: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight"

To: "[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight :rolleyes:"

ibush01 Oct 13, 2023 1:26 pm


Originally Posted by jsloan (Post 35658113)
I interpreted it as OP turning down the upgrade to prevent being split.

No — I/we didn't turn it down. We were never offered the chance (I would have given it to my dad and then STEWED the whole flight). Just before boarding, the upgrade screen listed us as #1-2 and then the #3 name showed as upgrade confirmed.

jsloan Oct 13, 2023 1:38 pm


Originally Posted by ibush01 (Post 35661523)
No — I/we didn't turn it down. We were never offered the chance (I would have given it to my dad and then STEWED the whole flight). Just before boarding, the upgrade screen listed us as #1-2 and then the #3 name showed as upgrade confirmed.

Weird. That is contrary to policy unless #3 bought up, which can still lead to the checkmark and thus is confusing.

IAH-OIL-TRASH Oct 13, 2023 2:06 pm

Don’t underestimate the number of people who at/near boarding who will buy up if they see no chance otherwise. Being #1/2 on waitlist with 1 or 2 seats left is primed for disappointment. #1/2 w/ 5 seats left in less that 8 hours, I’m feeling better.

Even if I’m #5 w/ 7 seats on a flight in two days, I’m assuming I’m out of luck. I’m starting to watch buy-ups at that time.

elmira56925 Oct 13, 2023 2:55 pm

Chance of upgrading on SFO-MCO on the redeye 10/31? I’m a 1K under K fare. Traveling with the gf so she bugging me hoping it clears. Like 12 seats left on the 757-3. I see a lot of economy plus seats empty which tells me not many elites on it currently. Which could change. I give it maybe 20% it clears


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