You’ll stay together (upgraded or not) until check-in. At that point, the waitlist will be visible and you can decide whether or not to rescind your request so as to not be split at check in.

My last several times waitlisting with an instrument, we were not given a choice. UA assumes you want the upgrade and will upgrade a single pax, splitting the PNR, if upgrade space is available.

Using an instrument, you will be auto-split around T-24 if there is confirmable space available at that time. The "do you want to stay on the upgrade list" question is only for CPUs. So, OP would want to set an alarm for ~T-36 to check the list there and see how it looks.

Do we have a good chance of sponsored PP upgrade clearing on this flight?
 

My wife and I are flying FRA-SFO tomorrow (Sat 12/30) and a 1K friend has sponsored us with his PP. Sadly, we're #23/24 on the UG list so definitely not going to clear as there's only 5 open seats right now.

That said, I'm considering switching us to a different flight (20+ open Polaris seats, my friend would resubmit the PP request) to increase our chances. No PZ/PN yet but we just hit the 24hrs out mark. Is there any way of gaining visibility into the current upgrade list before I switch the flight? I'd hate to make the switch (from current non-stop to this itinerary with a layover in IAH) only to find out we're 20-something on the list again.

Go to flight status, type in the flight number and date to check the upgrade list.

The upgrade priority without the sponsor traveling is based on the the status of traveler, and not the sponsor.

What other flights are you considering? I took a quick look through FRA-SFO connections and most seem to be pretty booked in Polaris.

UA945 is your only guaranteed Polaris out of FRA :cool:

​​​​​​​Yeah, 945 seems the best bet, but I won't say it's "guaranteed".

Currently 945 is booked 30/44 in J. There are 12 people on the WL.

Based on FRA-SFO WL on Dec. 30, it appears that the OP is at the bottom. Therefore, it's likely that OP will be No. 13 and 14 for 945.

This is a close call.

11 of them are standby/non revs

I just tried and I can only see the upgrade list for the next two days.

Correct. I was responding to the other poster, as his/her flight is within 2 days (tomorrow).

Not sure if there are still work arounds to see flight info, including waitlist, beyond...

if that's the case, then OP is almost guaranteed the upgrade.

Best way to score an upgrade EWR-Tokyo (1K)
 

Hi All,

I am a 1K passenger looking to book a Newark to Tokyo round trip flight for my husband and myself in the March-May timeframe. I have about 350 plus points (plus another 300 that will expire end of January). What is the best process in terms of maximizing the chances for an upgrade on economy booked tickets? We're willing to be somewhat flexible with the dates and scheduling, but would like to try to do anything we can to get into first/business. Any recommendations? Thank you!!

I have also heard that for some flights there are upgrade point deals offered soon after booking?

Your best chances are in first half of May, mid-week travel. You’ll already be at a disadvantage, being behind all GSs and behind any status waitlisted in PremEconomy.

Apart from what has already been suggested, HND has [slightly] better chances than NRT.