Winning the West Coast
#181
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Why? Because SFO has the local traffic, airport facilities, and location for a great hub. There's simply no other airport in the entire West Coast that is a better option for a large hub. Weather-induced delays due to the undesirable runway configuration is nothing more than an inconvenience. DL and AA only wish they were in the same situation as UA at SFO.
It is even worse for others who try to fly UA but then have even fewer options connecting elsewhere on the West Coast.
David
#182
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I agree with some previous posts stating that the majority of trips to/from the airport start/end at the home, not the place of work. In that regard, SJC may be in the heart of Silicon Valley, but SFO is the best positioned airport for Silicon Valley (also VC) traffic. Perhaps it takes an objective observer from L.A. to acknowledge that.
#183
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SFO would have separated its runways years ago if expansion in the bay was feasible. This is political a dead idea (for all three airports)
OAK 3 runways 28 R/L & 30
OAK 3 runways 28 R/L & 30
Regardless, with the fact that 28 is the dominant direction for wind and the "pincer" shape between 28 and 30, I think OAK is effectively restricted to 2 of 3 runways whenever winds are from the west.
I agree with some previous posts stating that the majority of trips to/from the airport start/end at the home, not the place of work. In that regard, SJC may be in the heart of Silicon Valley, but SFO is the best positioned airport for Silicon Valley (also VC) traffic. Perhaps it takes an objective observer from L.A. to acknowledge that.
Also with the mid-Market tax thing, there has been quite a lot of tech growth in the City proper, so I think SFO has the local economy covered very well, geographically speaking.
#184
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I think you are right, 30 is used by the major carriers. 28R/L are connected to the General Aviation usage
#185
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Ha! "Inconvenience!" - those of us who are forced to connect through SFO are trapped there when inbound flights are under flow control due to weather and/or construction or both. I've already been forced to overnight at SFO hotels on UA nickel multiple times this year because of this very problem. Because of these misconnects, UA has ponied up ETCs and I've had to cancel business meetings as well as family events and other trips that I wasn't able to get to because a) UA has reduced the number of LAX-SFO connections and b) UA has curtailed service in and out of LAX to c) pump up this "great hub".
It is even worse for others who try to fly UA but then have even fewer options connecting elsewhere on the West Coast.
David
It is even worse for others who try to fly UA but then have even fewer options connecting elsewhere on the West Coast.
David
#186
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I don't necessarily disagree. I interpret the classical definition of "Silicon Valley" as Santa Clara County, in an arc formed by Mountain View, Sunnyvale/Cupertino, San Jose, and Milpitas. The fact that the demography south of San Jose shifts decidedly to middle income spells SJC's doomed fate if another airline ever tries to revive a hub there to compete with SFO.
#187
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I don't necessarily disagree. I interpret the classical definition of "Silicon Valley" as Santa Clara County, in an arc formed by Mountain View, Sunnyvale/Cupertino, San Jose, and Milpitas. The fact that the demography south of San Jose shifts decidedly to middle income spells SJC's doomed fate if another airline ever tries to revive a hub there to compete with SFO.
#188
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#189
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Okay, good point. I can't dispute that Silicon Valley can ostensibly mean the Bay Area, including the entire Peninsula all the way into downtown San Francisco. But on a weighted scale of tech firms, past and present, my perception is that the center of gravity is still closer to San Jose. Some of the higher profile companies and their HQs: Google (Mountain View), Apple (Cupertino), Yahoo (Sunnyvale), AMD (Sunnyvale), Nvidia (Santa Clara), Intel (Santa Clara), Adobe (San Jose), Western Digital (San Jose)... Nevertheless, even with those companies near SJC, I think we agree that SFO is the more convenient and preferred.
#190
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I don't think we'll ever see SJC turn into the EWR vs SFO's JFK like setup.
But if you live South of the Dumbarton on either side it's more convenient to hit up SJC and plenty of ways service will grow there. Kind of like Orange County vs LAX but without the curfew.
As for market size it's less about wealth unless you're trying to support a specialized product like PS.
Most biz travel is on other people's money - so being convenient to lots of people with good income but not quite wealthy is sufficient.
Though I agree the biggest wealth belt is MP/PA down to Saratoga / Los Gatos.
But if you live South of the Dumbarton on either side it's more convenient to hit up SJC and plenty of ways service will grow there. Kind of like Orange County vs LAX but without the curfew.
As for market size it's less about wealth unless you're trying to support a specialized product like PS.
Most biz travel is on other people's money - so being convenient to lots of people with good income but not quite wealthy is sufficient.
Though I agree the biggest wealth belt is MP/PA down to Saratoga / Los Gatos.
#191
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I am skeptical this is true. Is there data to support this? Most of the young affluent silicon valley tech workers I know prefer to live in the city. I live in the SJC flight path so I'm the exception and would prefer a SJC hub, but I think the money is up in the city, not south bay. Just my observations...no data to support.
I don't necessarily disagree. I interpret the classical definition of "Silicon Valley" as Santa Clara County, in an arc formed by Mountain View, Sunnyvale/Cupertino, San Jose, and Milpitas. The fact that the demography south of San Jose shifts decidedly to middle income spells SJC's doomed fate if another airline ever tries to revive a hub there to compete with SFO.
Right, it's just way too inconvenient for where many people want to go, which for many is SF. The advantage of the 3 New York airports is that they are centered around Manhattan, which is the clear business and tourism center. The Bay Area is a bit more spread out, though.
#192
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my perception is that the center of gravity is still closer to San Jose. Some of the higher profile companies and their HQs: Google (Mountain View), Apple (Cupertino), Yahoo (Sunnyvale), AMD (Sunnyvale), Nvidia (Santa Clara), Intel (Santa Clara), Adobe (San Jose), Western Digital (San Jose)...
I definitely agree that SJC makes sense for a local West Coast focus city a la AS and WN though. I think WN provides huge value for being the only carrier that essentially provides full pairwise coverage on QSF to QLA. When I'm eating most of the day to fly TCON or overwater, the extra distance to SFO is negligible, but for a day trip to LA, being able to fly SJC-BUR (or whatever pair suits that trip) is quite valuable.
#193
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Two issues there... first, I think the AA 772 new J reconfiguration program is finished, so all of the 772s either have the 'Concept D' seats or the BE Super Diamond herringbone. The 2-3-2 angled flats (and First Class) are gone, though not all have premium economy yet. I'd give an advantage to AA here, no doubt, but unlike many, I really have no problem with the sCO 777 seat, especially the DE pairs (8DE are still among the best J seats in the system, even with Polaris seats in service).
Second, the IAH E club showers are gone now that the Polaris build-out is underway. I'm not sure if the showers in C-South are still open, but either way those aren't long for the world and will be deleted with the upcoming renovation of the lounge. However, spin talks about his parents flying J to EZE, and I understand UA is targeting a February/March opening for the Polaris lounge at IAH. Depending on when they travel, they'd have access to the PL and showers, so soon the point will be moot for UA/*A premium cabin pax. Setting aside crowding issues, which UA is working to correct, based on ORD I'd argue that the standard for the Polaris lounge concept (furnishings, F&B quality, service) is higher-end than the AA Flagship Lounge. We can gripe about the slow progress of lounge openings, but at least construction is underway in no fewer than three key locations (EWR/IAH/SFO).
The rest of the argument is self-serving and I don't think the gap between AA and UA in the premium cabins in that market is dramatic.
Second, the IAH E club showers are gone now that the Polaris build-out is underway. I'm not sure if the showers in C-South are still open, but either way those aren't long for the world and will be deleted with the upcoming renovation of the lounge. However, spin talks about his parents flying J to EZE, and I understand UA is targeting a February/March opening for the Polaris lounge at IAH. Depending on when they travel, they'd have access to the PL and showers, so soon the point will be moot for UA/*A premium cabin pax. Setting aside crowding issues, which UA is working to correct, based on ORD I'd argue that the standard for the Polaris lounge concept (furnishings, F&B quality, service) is higher-end than the AA Flagship Lounge. We can gripe about the slow progress of lounge openings, but at least construction is underway in no fewer than three key locations (EWR/IAH/SFO).
The rest of the argument is self-serving and I don't think the gap between AA and UA in the premium cabins in that market is dramatic.
They are going in early December, so the PL at IAH, whenever UA gets it opened up.... does not figure.
My parents are not UA fans (courtesy of several recent issues on Hawaii flights), but they would also like to avoid DFW due to long walks. Bottom line is that United's product and service was simply not competitive. AA 321F > UA 739 F; AA J >> sCO J; AA Flagship Lounge with showers >>> UA CruddyClub.
If United wants to "win the west" they really need to look at their combination of service and product, neither are competitive at this point, and UA is falling further behind (SEA/PDX they gave up a long time ago; they are now definately sub-par at SAN; and LAX they are firmly in 3rd place)
I suppose you could make an argument that they could swap the roles of SFO and SJC, as SJC has much better weather and less restrictive airport conditions. However, not only would that likely entail a massive expansion of terminal space at SJC, they’d run into an EWR-like perception problem. The west coast analogues of all of the NYC folk saying “EWR’s not New York” would be saying “SJC’s not San Francisco.” And it’s not like it’s any easier for SFO-based passengers to get to SJC than vice-versa.
Realistically, though, UA and SFO are likely stuck with each other. Honestly, the Bay Area’s best option is probably to build a new, massive airport out near Concord or somewhere (wherever they can find the land), shut down SFO and OAK*, and then add high-speed train service, similar to what was done in HKG, ICN, NRT, etc. However, considering how difficult it is to get those local governments to agree on anything, I don’t know what shot this actually has. :-)
SJC has fewer runways than SFO, and I'm not convinced that they have enough horizontal separation for full IFR acceptance rate either. SFO is much better equipped for heavy traffic than either OAK or SJC; the only reason it's "problematic" is that it handles so much more traffic. When flow control hits SFO, the maximum arrival rate is still higher than what SJC or OAK are receiving (because they have so many fewer flights). With developed land on all sides, SJC is actually the hardest airport to expand, and I think you'd need more runways to have a hope of serving an SFO level of traffic.
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Actually I think you'd have a better shot putting a mega-airport in south San Jose or Morgan Hill. Lots of farmland (for tax reasons? never figured it out), and existing trackage and right of way up both the Peninsula and the East Bay (Caltrain and Amtrak). Getting HSR through the Caldecott Tunnel and/or across the bay would be a Herculean feat, not that our governments could ever manage even electrified slow trains from San Jose to SF actual downtown sooner that what... 2030? NRT, LHR, et. al just make me so sad in comparison.
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Actually I think you'd have a better shot putting a mega-airport in south San Jose or Morgan Hill. Lots of farmland (for tax reasons? never figured it out), and existing trackage and right of way up both the Peninsula and the East Bay (Caltrain and Amtrak). Getting HSR through the Caldecott Tunnel and/or across the bay would be a Herculean feat, not that our governments could ever manage even electrified slow trains from San Jose to SF actual downtown sooner that what... 2030? NRT, LHR, et. al just make me so sad in comparison.
I have always wondered why DL/AA never gave OAK/SJC a serious shot at being their premier west coast hub like UA has at SFO. From a geographical point of view, the Bay Area is better positioned than LAX and has way more O&D than SEA. People's Express looked at EWR in the 1980s and said it was underutilized/under-appreciated. When CO bought them, they agreed and grew EWR into a large, profitable NYC hub. I look at SJC/OAK in the same way. A large percent of the Bay Area population has SJC as their closest airport (especially the wealthy areas). The BART ride from OAK to the Financial District is only slightly longer than the BART ride from SFO to the financial district, and the airport is not space constrained.
p.s. I should add that AA tried to build a mini-hub at SJC, it ultimately failed because that for about 1/2 of the traffic that would use SJC, SFO was equally convenient, if not more convenient, and SFO has many more flights. What SJC needs is service to hubs and to major linked citeis.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Nov 28, 2017 at 3:12 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
#194
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HSR is about as much of a pipe dream as a new airport. Even if built as proposed, it would be an almost 3 hour trip and I'm skeptical it would really hamstring commuting by air where the time is much shorter. I think the real problem is that, unlike the NYC/DC corridor, there really is no convenient place in LA to get off a train that beats an airport.
#195
Join Date: Sep 2010
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I appreciate your optimism!
Who needs high speed rail when options like this are available?