Any UA pilots or mechanics on FT: why so many MX this year?
Jun 30, 2015, 2:31 pm
#61
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Posts: 575
I had a 100% misconnect rate last fall due to the UX baggage meltdown in DEN, then a 70% misconnect for a month this winter due to cold and/or snow. It happens.
Jun 30, 2015, 2:43 pm
#62
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ORF, RIC
Programs: UA LT 1K, 3 MM; Marriott Titanium; IHG Platinum
Posts: 6,958
What is my probability for last trip
Four out of five flights arrived at gates more than 30 min behind schedules for my last trip. What is the probability? To be honest, one of the delay was not mechanic.
Jun 30, 2015, 2:43 pm
#63
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: San Antonio, TX
Programs: 1K
Posts: 784
So frustrating to see silver/golds clear upgrade and I stay as #1 on the list due to misconnect.I often rebook to PN on a different flight when I see a potential misconnect. Then, there is some automatic rebooking that moves me from PN -> Y on the same flight. This caused me to lose upgrades on two separate occasions this month (including yesterday morning). It is as if the automatic "rebooking" process doesn't see that an agent has already moved me to a different flight.
Jun 30, 2015, 2:57 pm
#64
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: SFO South Bay
Programs: UA 2MM
Posts: 3,052
Agreed. But of my last 4 trips SFO-EWR, 8 segments, I have been delayed by more than 30 minutes on 7 of them. Chances of that are .02%. But happened.
Jun 30, 2015, 4:04 pm
#65
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Given the nature of the airline industry, I'm surprised that there aren't more delays. Think about just how much could go wrong with airplanes, some of the most costly and complicated pieces of machinery ever to exist.
As for DL's "no canceled flights" goal, it may be nice that it does happen on certain days, but it's just not going to happen for the same reason as my first sentence: too many variables that could go awry.
As for DL's "no canceled flights" goal, it may be nice that it does happen on certain days, but it's just not going to happen for the same reason as my first sentence: too many variables that could go awry.
Jun 30, 2015, 5:03 pm
#66
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,324
There's something going on. The IAD/EWR 767/777 fleets are seeing an inordinate # of MX delays and outright cancellations. On my way to and back from CH this week was like walking through a mine field, with cancellations left and right to/from ZRH & GVA. I'm sitting at Dulles right now looking at the IAD-LHR 777 just sitting here at the gate, delayed for over an hour (it did push). I'm looking at customer service lines 100 people deep with four agents doing their best to tend to misconnects and those who've had their IAD-SFO cancelled. If this is any indicator, this summer is going to be a complete disaster.
Last edited by tuolumne; Jun 30, 2015 at 5:17 pm
Jun 30, 2015, 5:56 pm
#67
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No team is going to win the World Series every year. But you bet it's their goal every year to win the World Series.
UA can use their superior fare pricing controls to help mask the operational difficulties.
Many studies show that consumers' airline loyalty is worth around ~20 USD or less domestically. Sell fares 20-50 USD less than others and you can fill a plane.
The secret to dynamic pricing is to do this in a way that isn't obvious to the competition(data driven, customized offers, wacky fare rules etc), low opportunity cost(elite gouging) and isn't harmful to the bottom line (more unbundling).
If UA can out-price-control the competition, they can get away with lower quality service.
Many studies show that consumers' airline loyalty is worth around ~20 USD or less domestically. Sell fares 20-50 USD less than others and you can fill a plane.
The secret to dynamic pricing is to do this in a way that isn't obvious to the competition(data driven, customized offers, wacky fare rules etc), low opportunity cost(elite gouging) and isn't harmful to the bottom line (more unbundling).
If UA can out-price-control the competition, they can get away with lower quality service.
So perhaps UA is already doing this.
Jun 30, 2015, 6:34 pm
#68
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
Smisek's goal, as documented in publicly filed documents, is to increase margins to influence math that determines his bonus payment.
If he says that there are diminishing returns after 80% and his goal is to maximize operating margins, then it follows logically that his goal is to not exceed 80% because by his logic, such action would reduce the margins that drive his compensation.
If he says that there are diminishing returns after 80% and his goal is to maximize operating margins, then it follows logically that his goal is to not exceed 80% because by his logic, such action would reduce the margins that drive his compensation.
Operational excellence - I'll leave that undefined but say it's absolutely not what we are seeing now - is accretive to earnings and margins. Cutting maintenance and intentionally running late hurts earnings and margins. Now that we've gotten that bit of logic out of the way, we can cross "Smisek's goal" off the list of legitimate reasons why operational performance is lagging.
Jun 30, 2015, 6:45 pm
#69
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the widebody MX issue has been ongoing for quite some time and way before any labor disputes started to emerge. Check the relevant thread back through the beginning of the year. Actually, I found it has recently slightly improved but not by much.
The regionals are a huge mess and here it's the MX in combo with WX which makes a toxic mixture. If UA would be honest and include the regionals in their statistics then things would begin to look at abysmal as they are.
The regionals are a huge mess and here it's the MX in combo with WX which makes a toxic mixture. If UA would be honest and include the regionals in their statistics then things would begin to look at abysmal as they are.
Jun 30, 2015, 6:52 pm
#70
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
the widebody MX issue has been ongoing for quite some time and way before any labor disputes started to emerge. Check the relevant thread back through the beginning of the year. Actually, I found it has recently slightly improved but not by much.
The regionals are a huge mess and here it's the MX in combo with WX which makes a toxic mixture. If UA would be honest and include the regionals in their statistics then things would begin to look at abysmal as they are.
The regionals are a huge mess and here it's the MX in combo with WX which makes a toxic mixture. If UA would be honest and include the regionals in their statistics then things would begin to look at abysmal as they are.
Jun 30, 2015, 6:54 pm
#71
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First, I think you're grossly overstating public statements of Smisek's goals.
Operational excellence - I'll leave that undefined but say it's absolutely not what we are seeing now - is accretive to earnings and margins. Cutting maintenance and intentionally running late hurts earnings and margins. Now that we've gotten that bit of logic out of the way, we can cross "Smisek's goal" off the list of legitimate reasons why operational performance is lagging.
Operational excellence - I'll leave that undefined but say it's absolutely not what we are seeing now - is accretive to earnings and margins. Cutting maintenance and intentionally running late hurts earnings and margins. Now that we've gotten that bit of logic out of the way, we can cross "Smisek's goal" off the list of legitimate reasons why operational performance is lagging.
When the costs of beating 80% exceed the costs of delays, it still makes UA economic sense to stick with 80% and absorb the costs of the delays. Ignoring the passengers, of course. After all, they don't count.
Jun 30, 2015, 6:54 pm
#72
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: What I write is my opinion alone..don't read into it anything not written.
Posts: 9,686
the widebody MX issue has been ongoing for quite some time and way before any labor disputes started to emerge. Check the relevant thread back through the beginning of the year. Actually, I found it has recently slightly improved but not by much.
The regionals are a huge mess and here it's the MX in combo with WX which makes a toxic mixture. If UA would be honest and include the regionals in their statistics then things would begin to look at abysmal as they are.
The regionals are a huge mess and here it's the MX in combo with WX which makes a toxic mixture. If UA would be honest and include the regionals in their statistics then things would begin to look at abysmal as they are.
Jun 30, 2015, 7:00 pm
#73
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Inclusion of regionals is up to the DOT. There's some complications in doing this as regionals are effectively code shares and you can't include all code shares in OT stats. Until the DOT can distinguish between capacity purchase and code shares, it'll be tough to get an accurate picture.
Flightaware and others can parse this out just fine.
what are you talking about? DL regionals are MUCH better than UA ... by a LOT actually.
Jun 30, 2015, 10:04 pm
#74
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Really hard to ignore the numbers, though, no matter what you attribute them to. When I look at the daily stats, I usually see a half-dozen regional carriers at the top, so it's pretty unusual to see any mainline carrier take a top spot.
From flightstats.com, canceled and delayed flights from the U.S. for yesterday, June 29 (just listing the top 10 carriers):
US is down further down the list at 3 cancellations. Delta isn't on the list at all.
The UA numbers are even higher today, June 30, though we still have a few hours to go as I type this top 10 around 2100 in CA:
AA had 9 cancellations, US 8, and Delta zero again.
From flightstats.com, canceled and delayed flights from the U.S. for yesterday, June 29 (just listing the top 10 carriers):
53 552 (UA) United Airlines
28 763 (WN) Southwest Airlines
10 208 (MQ) Envoy Air
10 113 (YV) Mesa Airlines
9 19 (C5) CommutAir
8 83 (9K) Cape Air
8 5 (H6) Ravn Connect
7 384 (AA) American Airlines
7 207 (B6) JetBlue Airways
7 86 (YX) Republic Airlines
28 763 (WN) Southwest Airlines
10 208 (MQ) Envoy Air
10 113 (YV) Mesa Airlines
9 19 (C5) CommutAir
8 83 (9K) Cape Air
8 5 (H6) Ravn Connect
7 384 (AA) American Airlines
7 207 (B6) JetBlue Airways
7 86 (YX) Republic Airlines
The UA numbers are even higher today, June 30, though we still have a few hours to go as I type this top 10 around 2100 in CA:
76 447 (EV) ExpressJet
66 698 (UA) United Airlines
44 1,187 (WN) Southwest Airlines
42 160 (YX) Republic Airlines
36 171 (ZW) Air Wisconsin
34 40 (C5) CommutAir
31 115 (PDT) Piedmont Airlines
26 150 (YV) Mesa Airlines
20 159 (MQ) Envoy Air
17 307 (OO) SkyWest Airlines
66 698 (UA) United Airlines
44 1,187 (WN) Southwest Airlines
42 160 (YX) Republic Airlines
36 171 (ZW) Air Wisconsin
34 40 (C5) CommutAir
31 115 (PDT) Piedmont Airlines
26 150 (YV) Mesa Airlines
20 159 (MQ) Envoy Air
17 307 (OO) SkyWest Airlines
Jun 30, 2015, 10:30 pm
#75
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
I'm curious what data you're referring to for the basis of your statement. Implying the current operating performance costs less than improving operations is an interesting conclusion.