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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Dec 20, 2016, 5:30 am
  #751  
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Originally Posted by GoSh4rks
SFO-ORD Mon Dec 19 F3 J9 Z5 ZN5 P4 PN3. 3 class 777. I'm on a M fare and will make 1k on my flight this Thursday evening, so 1k status should update T-48/T-24 or so... is that going to be too late for the Y/B/M upgrades? Is there anyway I can get them to bump me up to 1k immediately after my Thursday flight..?

And then on a return:
ORD-SFO Weds Dec 21 F5 J9 Z7 ZN7 P7 PN6, 3 class 777 again. This time on a U fare. No real hopes for this one.
An update for anybody wondering: 1K posted about t-50 and I called in to bump up into PN.

ORD-SFO cleared at T-42. Was actually thinking of using an rpu for this. Glad I didn't.
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Old Dec 21, 2016, 1:27 pm
  #752  
 
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Originally Posted by teryyz
Looking for some advice here. First time as 1K, so this is my first experience using a GPU.

I'm currently booked in W class on UA1 from SFO-SIN on January 12. Used a GPU to waitlist for upgrade to Polaris. I'm a bit worried about the chances of the upgrade clearing. The flight currently shows as: J9 JN9 C8 D3 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0

I may have an opportunity to switch to a DEN-NRT-SIN routing, which shows R9 on the DEN-NRT segment on a 787-8. The downside is the 7.5 hour NRT-SIN segment would be on ANA, so would not be eligible for the upgrade.

So which do you think is the better choice: staying with the SFO-SIN waitlist, and if it doesn't clear, flying in Economy Plus, versus switching to the DEN-NRT-SIN routing, with the DEN-NRT in Polaris, and NRT-SIN in regular economy with ANA?

Thanks in advance!
I'm still on the Jan 12 SFO-SIN flight. The agent said I was #15 on the upgrade list, with 12 business class seats available (I had called yesterday for a separate reason). That seems like pretty terrible odds.

Interestingly, that flight now shows as completely sold out in economy:
J9 JN9 C7 D1 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y0 YN0 B0 M0 E0 U0 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN0 X0

Does this change things at all? For example, if this flight is oversold in economy? I'm flying from YYZ, so many alternatives to get to SIN, but would need to figure that out before getting to SFO. Can I ask about this in advance, or do I need to wait/hope for a message when I check in for my first flight?

Thanks again!
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Old Dec 21, 2016, 2:40 pm
  #753  
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Originally Posted by teryyz
Does this change things at all? For example, if this flight is oversold in economy?
No, not really. If the flight is overbooked in Y, they will run the upgrade list before doing any op-ups, and you would still be #15 for a small number of seats remaining. Z0 is always a terrible sign for an instrument clearing.
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Old Dec 21, 2016, 2:48 pm
  #754  
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Originally Posted by teryyz
I'm still on the Jan 12 SFO-SIN flight. The agent said I was #15 on the upgrade list, with 12 business class seats available (I had called yesterday for a separate reason). That seems like pretty terrible odds.

Interestingly, that flight now shows as completely sold out in economy:
J9 JN9 C7 D1 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y0 YN0 B0 M0 E0 U0 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN0 X0
Three weeks out? Anything can happen, but IMO most likely scenario is that it's booked full by day of departure, and maybe two or three GS upgrade at the gate due to no-shows.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 2:16 am
  #755  
 
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Have an upcoming flight with Lufthansa from MUC to BOS on U 1/6/2017 and then with United from IAH to FRA in W on 1/21/2017, any thoughts on the chance to clear the upgrade?

Also, I think I have 6 global upgrade certificates which are about to expire on 1/31/2017 and I do have multiple international flights in February - anybody is aware of the chance to get the certificates extended?

Thank you!
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 3:29 am
  #756  
 
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Originally Posted by Tommys888
Have an upcoming flight with Lufthansa from MUC to BOS on U 1/6/2017 and then with United from IAH to FRA in W on 1/21/2017, any thoughts on the chance to clear the upgrade?

Also, I think I have 6 global upgrade certificates which are about to expire on 1/31/2017 and I do have multiple international flights in February - anybody is aware of the chance to get the certificates extended?

Thank you!
if you re qualified for 1K you can extend your GPU till 4/31/2017
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 4:18 am
  #757  
 
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Originally Posted by teryyz
Does this change things at all? For example, if this flight is oversold in economy? I'm flying from YYZ, so many alternatives to get to SIN, but would need to figure that out before getting to SFO. Can I ask about this in advance, or do I need to wait/hope for a message when I check in for my first flight?

Thanks again!
Hate to say it, but I wouldn't bet on that upgrade clearing. But, you never know! Maybe save some time and jump on one of the TPACs directly out of YYZ?
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 7:44 am
  #758  
 
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Flying UA743 (EWR-ORD) on Christmas Eve...booked on an award ticket (YN bucket), but have not cleared CPU yet. J (this is a 3-class 763) shows only 7/26 booked...do I have a shot? And does my 1K status help me at all in terms of priority, or does being booked on an award ticket put me near the bottom of the list?

Should note that it was showing zeroed-out fare buckets previously except for F1 but now has more availability showing.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 8:38 am
  #759  
 
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Originally Posted by findark
No, not really. If the flight is overbooked in Y, they will run the upgrade list before doing any op-ups, and you would still be #15 for a small number of seats remaining. Z0 is always a terrible sign for an instrument clearing.
Originally Posted by Kacee
Three weeks out? Anything can happen, but IMO most likely scenario is that it's booked full by day of departure, and maybe two or three GS upgrade at the gate due to no-shows.
Originally Posted by hookthem
Hate to say it, but I wouldn't bet on that upgrade clearing. But, you never know! Maybe save some time and jump on one of the TPACs directly out of YYZ?
Thanks all for the info. I will see if it's possible to switch to another flight. Best options would seem to be EWR/ORD-HKG-SIN (which don't show R availability right now), or DEN-NRT-SIN (which does show R availability, but with the second segment on ANA which can't be upgraded at the same fare class). Several other options through NRT as well.

As far as I know, there are no United flights from YYZ to Asia.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 8:41 am
  #760  
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
Flying UA743 (EWR-ORD) on Christmas Eve...booked on an award ticket (YN bucket), but have not cleared CPU yet. J (this is a 3-class 763) shows only 7/26 booked...do I have a shot? And does my 1K status help me at all in terms of priority, or does being booked on an award ticket put me near the bottom of the list?

Should note that it was showing zeroed-out fare buckets previously except for F1 but now has more availability showing.
Should clear as a 1K. If it's oversold, they will typically hold off on running advance CPU sweeps, which would explain booked only 7/26 so close to departure.

Does it show upgrade eligible on your reservation?
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 10:57 am
  #761  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
Should clear as a 1K. If it's oversold, they will typically hold off on running advance CPU sweeps, which would explain booked only 7/26 so close to departure.

Does it show upgrade eligible on your reservation?
It currently shows 17 blocked...economy almost certainly oversold.

Moot point anyways - First Saver opened up, so I spent the 10k extra miles on top of my Economy Standard award and moved to the very front of the bus
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:12 am
  #762  
 
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Any opinions as to likelihood of op-ups on 12/23 UA918? I see Y is full although still being sold, and 8 seats are blocked in J.
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Old Dec 22, 2016, 11:46 am
  #763  
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Originally Posted by Taoyuan
Any opinions as to likelihood of op-ups on 12/23 UA918? I see Y is full although still being sold, and 8 seats are blocked in J.
Reasonable chance there's a handful. Ton of non-elites based on empty E+ cabin. And leisure travelers less likely to cancel/no-show than business travelers.

R9 as well.
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Old Dec 27, 2016, 9:34 am
  #764  
 
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Originally Posted by teryyz
I'm still on the Jan 12 SFO-SIN flight. The agent said I was #15 on the upgrade list, with 12 business class seats available (I had called yesterday for a separate reason). That seems like pretty terrible odds.

Interestingly, that flight now shows as completely sold out in economy:
J9 JN9 C7 D1 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y0 YN0 B0 M0 E0 U0 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN0 X0

Does this change things at all? For example, if this flight is oversold in economy? I'm flying from YYZ, so many alternatives to get to SIN, but would need to figure that out before getting to SFO. Can I ask about this in advance, or do I need to wait/hope for a message when I check in for my first flight?

Thanks again!
Update on this, in case anyone is interested...

16 days out, and availability keeps changing in both directions. There are now 6 seats available in Y, still 9+ in J. Still no Z fares available, but D has increased to 2:
J9 JN9 C6 D2 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y5 YN5 B3 M2 E1 U0 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN0 X0

I've also noticed that availability depends on what country you're in. I'm in Canada, but the website often defaults to US (even after I log in). The above is what is shown in the US setting, while changing the region to Canada results in:
J9 JN9 C0 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0 IN0 I0 Y5 YN5 B1 M0 E0 U0 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N0 XN0 X0

For some reason, only full fare J class in Canada.
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Old Jan 8, 2017, 11:02 am
  #765  
 
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight [2017]

Didn't see a 2017 version of this thread yet, so figured I'd make a first posting...

I have a schedule change that is just a timing issue (10 minutes), so the 1K hotline didn't let me try to change my AMS-EWR routing to AMD-IAD-EWR (AMS-IAD still has R9 availability). Wanted to gauge people's opinions on if they think upfaring to W is worth it for AMS-EWR on April 16 and applying a GPU. P9 PN9 showing, only 2 seats outside of the rest seat currently booked. Not sure how many people will spring for P fare that is ~$1200 above lowest Y fare available.
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