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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:39 pm
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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}

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Old Oct 5, 2018, 1:21 pm
  #3196  
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
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Just to update, no upgrade given on the PEK - SFO flight. Luckily flight was empty so I had Hobo First Class. Asked about upgrade at checkin, the offer was $2700. Yea no. Polaris went out maybe 1/3 full and coach was even less. Interestingly at the same time there is an Air China 748 doing the same route.
steveo is offline  
Old Oct 5, 2018, 6:28 pm
  #3197  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
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Originally Posted by findark
No. 4AB are blocked for crew rest and will be released around T-60h. I'm assuming this is an sCO 752 flying a domestic route because inventory is F and not J.
Correct, this is IAD->LAX. I'll be watching to see what happens at around 2.5 days out then.
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Old Oct 5, 2018, 6:36 pm
  #3198  
 
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Originally Posted by drowelf
Looking at a flight for next week. When I try a test booking for the flight, the details shows F3 vs the Seat Map only showing 1.

Who can I believe?
What's the route, and what day? Seat maps are not a very reliable way to assess the load on a a particular flight...so generally the fare buckets you see via Expert Mode are more reliable.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 7:50 am
  #3199  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
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My first time using RPUs and I mistakenly applied one to my flight home to Hawaii for Christmas (Dec 22). The short flight to LAX cleared immediiately but of course the long flight LAX-HNL didn't. It only has one F seat available (according to seat map ... R0 indicated for the flight) anyway but I have a good seat in E+. Should I withdraw the RPU request now and get back my original seat (row 7 aisle on CRJ200) from Colorado to LAX or wait and see by some miracle the RPU clears (taking the chance that I have to settle for an E seat in the back if I withdraw the RPU too late)? I was on the CPU waitlist already but I'm sure a new 1K like me would lose out to any GS for the one seat.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 9:18 am
  #3200  
 
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Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe
My first time using RPUs and I mistakenly applied one to my flight home to Hawaii for Christmas (Dec 22). The short flight to LAX cleared immediiately but of course the long flight LAX-HNL didn't. It only has one F seat available (according to seat map ... R0 indicated for the flight) anyway but I have a good seat in E+. Should I withdraw the RPU request now and get back my original seat (row 7 aisle on CRJ200) from Colorado to LAX or wait and see by some miracle the RPU clears (taking the chance that I have to settle for an E seat in the back if I withdraw the RPU too late)? I was on the CPU waitlist already but I'm sure a new 1K like me would lose out to any GS for the one seat.
You won't clear LAX to HNL at Xmas so unless you want to use it on the "Colorado - LAX" run I would withdraw it and grab the best E+ seat you can. I do this run to the Islands all the time. JMHO
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 9:23 am
  #3201  
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Originally Posted by ExplorerWannabe
The short flight to LAX cleared immediiately but of course the long flight LAX-HNL didn't. It only has one F seat available (according to seat map ... R0 indicated for the flight) anyway but I have a good seat in E+. Should I withdraw the RPU request now and get back my original seat (row 7 aisle on CRJ200) from Colorado to LAX or wait and see by some miracle the RPU clears (taking the chance that I have to settle for an E seat in the back if I withdraw the RPU too late)?
Not sure what you are referring to here - CR2 does not have an F cabin.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 7:46 pm
  #3202  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
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Originally Posted by nomad420
You won't clear LAX to HNL at Xmas so unless you want to use it on the "Colorado - LAX" run I would withdraw it and grab the best E+ seat you can. I do this run to the Islands all the time. JMHO
Yeah, that's what I figured but thought I would ask since I've never had an RPU. I do the run annually and especially at Christmas, the only way to get front cabin seems to be to pay for it.

Originally Posted by Kacee
Not sure what you are referring to here - CR2 does not have an F cabin.
My mistake, was going from memory and UA usually used the CRJ on that leg. This time it's an ERJ-175. Either way, I'm going to request to withdraw the RPU.
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Old Oct 14, 2018, 6:50 pm
  #3203  
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
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Unhappy UA upgrade advice
I have 2 seats booked from PBI ORD IAH to SYD this week and have paid for upgrades, and I understand an upgrade is not guaranteed, yet looking at seats today, there is only 1 seat left in Polaris. At the time of booking (August), I was told I was No. 1 on upgrade list and had a good chance as there were 13 seats in Polaris available at that time. I have checked other flights and there are 6 seats in Polaris from SFO to SYD. What are my chances of getting upgraded if I try and switch the flight to ORD SFO SYD, I can afford a little extra to make it happen, but not $$$$. I am UA GOLD. All advice welcome!
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Old Oct 14, 2018, 7:20 pm
  #3204  
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Originally Posted by milehighmel
What are my chances of getting upgraded if I try and switch the flight to ORD SFO SYD
This late in the game, you'll be pretty low on the list, so I wouldn't hold my breath. Have you checked LAX? That's generally an easier upgrade than SFO.
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Old Oct 14, 2018, 7:32 pm
  #3205  
 
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Originally Posted by milehighmel
I have 2 seats booked from PBI ORD IAH to SYD this week and have paid for upgrades, and I understand an upgrade is not guaranteed, yet looking at seats today, there is only 1 seat left in Polaris. At the time of booking (August), I was told I was No. 1 on upgrade list and had a good chance as there were 13 seats in Polaris available at that time. I have checked other flights and there are 6 seats in Polaris from SFO to SYD. What are my chances of getting upgraded if I try and switch the flight to ORD SFO SYD, I can afford a little extra to make it happen, but not $$$$. I am UA GOLD. All advice welcome!
Unfortunately, you were told some nonsense. Only 13 seats left two months before the flight made your chances of upgrade very close to 0. Do not switch your flight on the routing through SFO unless you see that R>0 and can be upgraded immediately as on that flight again you will be low on the upgrade list. And you would have wasted money to make the switch. Hopefully, in August you managed to get good seats in Economy +.

Also, do not rely on the seat map. For example, this Wednesday the seat map for SFO-SYD shows 6 empty seats in Business but cablepick shows that it's sold 45/48 so only 3 seats left.
StuckinITH is offline  
Old Oct 14, 2018, 9:03 pm
  #3206  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,319
EWR-LAX transcon service - what are the usual chances of upgrade with an RPU? Will a daytime flight (2pm) be more likely to upgrade than a later one (5pm)? Thursday vs Friday (early December)? What do your tea leaves say?
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Old Oct 14, 2018, 9:43 pm
  #3207  
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Originally Posted by br2k
EWR-LAX transcon service - what are the usual chances of upgrade with an RPU? Will a daytime flight (2pm) be more likely to upgrade than a later one (5pm)? Thursday vs Friday (early December)? What do your tea leaves say?
Thursday / Friday tend to be tougher days. Some chance for a GS, low chances for a 1K. Plat very, very low.
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Old Oct 14, 2018, 9:57 pm
  #3208  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Thursday / Friday tend to be tougher days. Some chance for a GS, low chances for a 1K. Plat very, very low.
Got it, thanks - won't even try
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Old Oct 15, 2018, 1:29 am
  #3209  
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Originally Posted by br2k
EWR-LAX transcon service - what are the usual chances of upgrade with an RPU? Will a daytime flight (2pm) be more likely to upgrade than a later one (5pm)? Thursday vs Friday (early December)? What do your tea leaves say?
Generally terrible. However, early December is the graveyard shift for domestic travel. If you want to take a whack, go for the last flight on Friday. I cleared a couple of EWR-SFO RPUs two years ago on those flights.
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Old Oct 15, 2018, 5:28 am
  #3210  
 
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Originally Posted by milehighmel
I have 2 seats booked from PBI ORD IAH to SYD this week and have paid for upgrades, and I understand an upgrade is not guaranteed, yet looking at seats today, there is only 1 seat left in Polaris. At the time of booking (August), I was told I was No. 1 on upgrade list and had a good chance as there were 13 seats in Polaris available at that time. I have checked other flights and there are 6 seats in Polaris from SFO to SYD. What are my chances of getting upgraded if I try and switch the flight to ORD SFO SYD, I can afford a little extra to make it happen, but not $$$$. I am UA GOLD. All advice welcome!
If you are flying on Friday, you can fuhhhhhhhhhget about it. Every single J seat is sold, practically, going across the Pacific. I'm flying to SYD on Friday (had to book into J class and pay full price to oversell onto one of those flights). Unless there is some sort of weather event that causes lots of missed connections at IAH / LAX / SFO... I don't think anyone will clear. If you're flying any other day this week, your odds will be somewhat better, but never great on this route. LAX and IAH, as another poster stated, are your best bets. SFO is always improbable.
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