UAL 1Q 2013 call/results - Thursday 4/25/13
#211
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
Yes, and no one here (I think) complains about UA selling F/J seats.
BUT, and its a big BUT, there are only so many folks who pay for F, CO has very few of them, UA had a lot more.
Those who pay for F/J expect to get a F/J experience. They don't expect a Jeff-wich for breakfast, and a burrito rap thing for dinner. They expect some decent wine, good coffee, some real ETOH, a "premium" experience, not something that would make walmart embarrassed. The UA product is devalued so much in soft product as to, I assume hurt true F/J sales. I certainly can remember at least 20 times post 3/3 I heard passengers in F/J saying they got ripped off, would not fly UA again.
Then what happens to the rest of the F seats is the key point. You show as DL PM in your profile, well I've been flying DL, and on DL, if you are looking at buying a basically full fare ticket, sometimes DL will offer a P/A on some flights for about $200 more. Hey, I'm ok with that. Are you?
What DL does not do is not upgrade folks and then try to sell the upgrade to all comers at rapidly decreasing (reverse auction) prices as you get closer to Time of Departure. Only those seats that can't be sold for a fw bucks get given as upgrades. As UA noted, its upsells to F are up 40% Y/Y in 1Q.
When folks who give a lot of money to UA stop being upgraded, its appropriate for them to complain, and then look for another carrier when as here UA intends to simply try to sell even more F seats as TODs.
BUT, and its a big BUT, there are only so many folks who pay for F, CO has very few of them, UA had a lot more.
Those who pay for F/J expect to get a F/J experience. They don't expect a Jeff-wich for breakfast, and a burrito rap thing for dinner. They expect some decent wine, good coffee, some real ETOH, a "premium" experience, not something that would make walmart embarrassed. The UA product is devalued so much in soft product as to, I assume hurt true F/J sales. I certainly can remember at least 20 times post 3/3 I heard passengers in F/J saying they got ripped off, would not fly UA again.
Then what happens to the rest of the F seats is the key point. You show as DL PM in your profile, well I've been flying DL, and on DL, if you are looking at buying a basically full fare ticket, sometimes DL will offer a P/A on some flights for about $200 more. Hey, I'm ok with that. Are you?
What DL does not do is not upgrade folks and then try to sell the upgrade to all comers at rapidly decreasing (reverse auction) prices as you get closer to Time of Departure. Only those seats that can't be sold for a fw bucks get given as upgrades. As UA noted, its upsells to F are up 40% Y/Y in 1Q.
When folks who give a lot of money to UA stop being upgraded, its appropriate for them to complain, and then look for another carrier when as here UA intends to simply try to sell even more F seats as TODs.
#213
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#214
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: San Francisco/Tel Aviv/YYZ
Programs: CO 1K-MM
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Those who pay for F/J expect to get a F/J experience. They don't expect a Jeff-wich for breakfast, and a burrito rap thing for dinner. They expect some decent wine, good coffee, some real ETOH, a "premium" experience, not something that would make walmart embarrassed. The UA product is devalued so much in soft product as to, I assume hurt true F/J sales. I certainly can remember at least 20 times post 3/3 I heard passengers in F/J saying they got ripped off, would not fly UA again.
#215
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AA LT Plat, UA 1k/1mm+, National EE, IC Plat, Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 2,605
Yes. Except there are very few of them. And in order to get those customers, you will need to provide F worthy service. Not constantly water down the mediocre service you have.
Beyond that, the customers you want are those paying higher than average fares in coach and incentivize them to give you as much volume as they can. The reason is that these elites fill your cabins at solid yields, which means you can price the cheapest seats less aggressively, and allows you to raise fares at the top end. When the volume at above average yields id fleeing, then the bottom falls out. That is what is happening at UA and that is why they have revenue problems.
The folks they pissed off are the 1ks, Plats, Golds and Silvers who gave them lots of volume at often average to above average yields. Once they left, the GS's may still have been around, but UA lost the ability to price more of a premium. Even after cutting lots of capacity, they are still not keeping up with DL and AA on yield.
Bingo.
Very true.
True. Of course it is not only the food. It's the seat, the service, the IRROPS recovery, the lounge access, etc. And UA falls short in virtually every category for me personally.
The only good news for me about all this is that I have been picking up some (relatively) insanely cheap fares as of late on UA since they are pricing way lower than AA and DL on the routes I fly most often.
Beyond that, the customers you want are those paying higher than average fares in coach and incentivize them to give you as much volume as they can. The reason is that these elites fill your cabins at solid yields, which means you can price the cheapest seats less aggressively, and allows you to raise fares at the top end. When the volume at above average yields id fleeing, then the bottom falls out. That is what is happening at UA and that is why they have revenue problems.
The folks they pissed off are the 1ks, Plats, Golds and Silvers who gave them lots of volume at often average to above average yields. Once they left, the GS's may still have been around, but UA lost the ability to price more of a premium. Even after cutting lots of capacity, they are still not keeping up with DL and AA on yield.
Bingo.
I've been saying this a lot lately... the F/J soft product (both in'tl and domestic) has been degraded over the last 2 years. They are serving slop that is barely worthy of being reheated at a 7-11. You don't have to be 'fancy' to be good for the F/J crowd. A nice (not soggy) unheated Turkey Club would be better than the junk they're serving and still be classy, or a rotation of salads with protein (chicken, etc) on top, with non-disgusting dressings.
The only good news for me about all this is that I have been picking up some (relatively) insanely cheap fares as of late on UA since they are pricing way lower than AA and DL on the routes I fly most often.
#216
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: CLE
Programs: UA 1K MM, DL Plat
Posts: 982
Beyond that, the customers you want are those paying higher than average fares in coach and incentivize them to give you as much volume as they can. The reason is that these elites fill your cabins at solid yields, which means you can price the cheapest seats less aggressively, and allows you to raise fares at the top end. When the volume at above average yields id fleeing, then the bottom falls out.
My point is that they should be wanting to incentivize customers paying average fares, because that's where you're really going to get reliable volume, in return for loyalty perks. At the low end, the vacationers and casual travelers are capricious and difficult to retain. At the high end, your elite benefits become meaningless because the high-yield customers are already paying for them directly.
I think they're failing because they ARE trying to winnow benefits down to above-average-fare travelers, and the amount of collateral damage is colossal.
I buy expensive nonstops and close-in fares when I travel for business. And I make elite pretty handily on that alone.
But when I travel for leisure, or on behalf of non-profit Boards that I volunteer for, I buy cheap fares. So I probably "average" out to somewhere in the middle if they look at my annual spend-per-mile. Well below the road warriors, but well above the vacationers.
Would UA prefer that I book my leisure travel on DL or AA, thereby being "above average" in my annual spend, but only giving them 75% of my business?? What's wrong with being average, I ask you?
#217
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 57,625
Well the UA/CO integration is effectively done, with the majority of the agreements in principle in place from the labour side, which is one of the hardest part. Look at the US/HP merger and integration for an example of how not to do it. And it started years earlier.
Physician, heal thyself.
#218
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Southern California, GVA, SIN, LHR, BRU, CDG
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Posts: 1,182
#219
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
What essentially LH did with great success after taking over Swiss (LX), preserving Swiss' loyal - and somewhat different - customerbase.
#220
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: DEN
Programs: Free checked in bag on UA & DL. Free icecream at Marriott checkin.
Posts: 2,862
IMO most of European mergers - LH-LX, AF-KL, preserved their individual identities due to the country by country negotiated bilateral landing rights they possessed.
#221
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Location: San Francisco/Tel Aviv/YYZ
Programs: CO 1K-MM
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UA would actually lose fewer HVFs and would be much better off if sCO and sUA remained separated albeit with reciprocal benefits and adjusted capacity. That would still realize some savings but without chasing pmUA elites off to AA and DL.
#222
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
We would have all been better off if they had done the 'merger without a merger' that Kellner et al were discussing. Network synergy, full FF reciprocity, etc. It would've been great. Now we have pissed off customers on both sides (but mostly pmUA), pissed off employees, and a mess of an airline.
The merger had to happen. UA could have stood alone for a while, but CO could not, its network was too small, and Glenn wanted to cash out. Also no regulator would have allowed CO to merge with AA (the compete too directly in Texas and the midsouth, at LAX, and in NYC) or likely (due to overlap in EWR and PHL) US. There was only one real tie up for CO, UA.
The problem was not doing a merger, its how it was carried out by Jeff, et al.
#223
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AA LT Plat, UA 1k/1mm+, National EE, IC Plat, Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 2,605
I'm not sure I buy this argument as-is, but then again, I'm not running an airline either... (And as a disclaimer, I think I AM one of the flyers who pays above-average fares. At least, in my flying patterns, my average CPM for flights in the back cabin is somewhere in the neighborhood of 10. Anyhow, I'm not one of the ones out there taking MRs every weekend for kicks...)
My point is that they should be wanting to incentivize customers paying average fares, because that's where you're really going to get reliable volume, in return for loyalty perks. At the low end, the vacationers and casual travelers are capricious and difficult to retain. At the high end, your elite benefits become meaningless because the high-yield customers are already paying for them directly.
I think they're failing because they ARE trying to winnow benefits down to above-average-fare travelers, and the amount of collateral damage is colossal.
I buy expensive nonstops and close-in fares when I travel for business. And I make elite pretty handily on that alone.
But when I travel for leisure, or on behalf of non-profit Boards that I volunteer for, I buy cheap fares. So I probably "average" out to somewhere in the middle if they look at my annual spend-per-mile. Well below the road warriors, but well above the vacationers.
Would UA prefer that I book my leisure travel on DL or AA, thereby being "above average" in my annual spend, but only giving them 75% of my business?? What's wrong with being average, I ask you?
My point is that they should be wanting to incentivize customers paying average fares, because that's where you're really going to get reliable volume, in return for loyalty perks. At the low end, the vacationers and casual travelers are capricious and difficult to retain. At the high end, your elite benefits become meaningless because the high-yield customers are already paying for them directly.
I think they're failing because they ARE trying to winnow benefits down to above-average-fare travelers, and the amount of collateral damage is colossal.
I buy expensive nonstops and close-in fares when I travel for business. And I make elite pretty handily on that alone.
But when I travel for leisure, or on behalf of non-profit Boards that I volunteer for, I buy cheap fares. So I probably "average" out to somewhere in the middle if they look at my annual spend-per-mile. Well below the road warriors, but well above the vacationers.
Would UA prefer that I book my leisure travel on DL or AA, thereby being "above average" in my annual spend, but only giving them 75% of my business?? What's wrong with being average, I ask you?
#224
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Honolulu Harbor
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 15,029
Numerically, or as percentage of business capacity? And you source of data if the latter?
In your crusade to criticize everything UA does, or what CO has done to it, I don't really think you really realize how much the downfall is due mostly to Smisek, not his predecessors at CO. I flew both CO and UA in business pre- merger, and (especially under the latter part of Bethune's tenure) there was little difference between the two.
As for comparing airline results this quarter, you need to be a little careful on comps. Delta is a few year post-merger, as is US. Southwest keeps chugging. American is in the throes of bankruptcy and UA is just one year into merger.
AA's results are just as miserable as UA's are. Big changes are in salaries/benefits, up double digits at UA, down double at AA. Maybe some bankruptcy benefit to AA's bottom line? UA PRASM up higher percentage (I can't remember)..
It'll be interesting down the road when all the legacy carriers are a bit farther from their respective mergers/bankruptcies. At that point, it'll be easier to make comparisons.
In your crusade to criticize everything UA does, or what CO has done to it, I don't really think you really realize how much the downfall is due mostly to Smisek, not his predecessors at CO. I flew both CO and UA in business pre- merger, and (especially under the latter part of Bethune's tenure) there was little difference between the two.
As for comparing airline results this quarter, you need to be a little careful on comps. Delta is a few year post-merger, as is US. Southwest keeps chugging. American is in the throes of bankruptcy and UA is just one year into merger.
AA's results are just as miserable as UA's are. Big changes are in salaries/benefits, up double digits at UA, down double at AA. Maybe some bankruptcy benefit to AA's bottom line? UA PRASM up higher percentage (I can't remember)..
It'll be interesting down the road when all the legacy carriers are a bit farther from their respective mergers/bankruptcies. At that point, it'll be easier to make comparisons.
#225
Join Date: Jul 2010
Programs: EXP
Posts: 84
I don't know what he expects. Free airports to land at and free ATC services? I do agree that GA should pay their fair share (more for Jet owners, in fact, because if you can afford a private jet, you can afford to pay for ATC services). Should recreational C172 type owners get clobbered? maybe a bit, but not the same as someone flying a G-V.
$19 billion a year isn't much either, relative to the infrastructure required to run the aviation system in the US. IF you want to look at irrational taxation and fees, look at the Canadien airports that charge $25 in PFC-equivalents (Airport Improvement Fee), they charge ATC (NAV Canada, which is completely private so airlines pay the FULL Cost), and 'security' fees that are well in excess of the US (11.90 vs. 2.50 on a 1-segment journey).
The base price of a ticket out of a canadian airport is in excess of $50 of taxes/fees, even before any GST/HST or fare. That's the customer facing fees. The airlines also face higher landing fees, etc.
$19 billion a year isn't much either, relative to the infrastructure required to run the aviation system in the US. IF you want to look at irrational taxation and fees, look at the Canadien airports that charge $25 in PFC-equivalents (Airport Improvement Fee), they charge ATC (NAV Canada, which is completely private so airlines pay the FULL Cost), and 'security' fees that are well in excess of the US (11.90 vs. 2.50 on a 1-segment journey).
The base price of a ticket out of a canadian airport is in excess of $50 of taxes/fees, even before any GST/HST or fare. That's the customer facing fees. The airlines also face higher landing fees, etc.