This is what I have been doing for the last 5 years when I monitor flights in the time window of my future travel:

1. I automatically record the C,D, and Z numbers when NC (R)=0 everytime I look at a flight.
2. I watch how the numbers change nearly daily.
3. I give the bet a higher chance when I see
(a) Z9 stays unchanged as the departure date gets close
(b) Z number increases, (or sometimes D number increase but Z remains low but I have to buy the ticket for urgency)
4. I give the bet a lower chance when I see the opposite happening
5. I use this method to compare and select among all the choices (different days and different routing) that I have within the travel window.
6. I may save my SWU and buy Z if the best choice is C9 D8 Z1 and the flight is one week away. I may wait longer if it is C9 D9 Z9.

By doing this systematically over the years, I can say with certainty that the probability of NC spaces open up later is positively correlated with the C,D,Z changes in this model. The correlation is certainly < 1, but is of sufficient value to me.

I also have never failed to upgrade at the gate when NC/R stays 0. I cannot prove that my succesful rate will be <100% if I do not use this scheme. And you are free to say that you believe my rate may still be 100% even if I bet on C1 D1 Z0 sometimes, or all the time.

I seldom post, but would like to add my voice to the general chorus of dismay. I've learned a lot from Flyer Talk about how to read and interpret the fare buckets, and it has been very helpful to me in planning several recent trips.

I'm an academic, not a business person, and when I fly I'm generally paying for myself. Knowing which flights were upgradeable -- and monitoring when those R seats became available -- was terribly important to me, and I'm very disappointed in United's change in policy. I'm a 1k million miler, and although I'll probably continue to be loyal to United just because of the service to Asia, this is a huge disappointment. It is hard to understand why United is doing this, other than for the obvious reasons that others have already mentioned.

OH SNAP!
 

And unlimited Domestic Upgrades, and changes you will like.

JS is going to be written about many times, and studied in business school.

"The failure of an overly self centered executive- destroying 2 brands in one fell swoop" ;)

That is exactly why CO wants to remove the information from elites like you. :td::td:

[Unduly personalized remarks deleted by Moderator.]

Still getting worse?
 

This is my first post...it never ends. I am a 1K, have been for last 5 years...i consider my self a sheep....just go with the flow, but it never ends.

I use fare class as primary tool for selecting flights, it is my only shot of getting upgraded. It is just shocking how frequent flyers for UA have been left behind. I am on a flight tomorrow BOS-SFO, flight is pretty wide open, I am a 1K....and 23rd on the upgrade list....there are 22 1K's or higher??

Any case, i would assume the analysis has been done, and it is very clear, the numbers must show that casual travelers are more valuable than frequent flyers. This is a fact...you should set expectations accordingly.

I will say the 1k email is awesome about apologizing how bad they are....great work!!!

Nail! Hammer! Head! A cloak.

If you pay for GDS access (or EF), you can still see all of the revenue fare buckets. Yes, it's unfortunate that we can no longer see R, but it's a slightly separate issue from seeing the revenue fare buckets for free.

This decision needs to be reversed

I understand all of this. My point is that unless you've bought the other fares and know they don't clear - not that you think they won't - then you cannot say conclusively that buying the other flights means you wouldn't clear. Also, the fact that you're only counting when you see upgrade space, not accounting for waitlists, further reduces visibility into the "black box" that we're talking about. It is entirely possible that you could have bought a coach seat, listed for the upgrade and cleared, all without NC ever showing anything other than zero.

Having success with one approach doesn't nullify the other options. It isn't a zero-sum game that way.

There are a number of free tools which show the revenue buckets as well.

Yeah but it's clear that COUA wants to make it more difficult on you to get that info.

The silence from UA Insider is deafening ... :td:

......but not surprising:td: nor unexpected.


But AwardWallet just tracks Frequent Flyer miles, does not indicate bucket availability. Still very sad, since AA pulled their info from AW a while ago as well.
Since Mileport is so unreliable it really is a shame.

Is this a backdoor way to put services like ExpertFlyer out of business? They've removed UA from their award search as a result of this action.

Well said!!!! BTW, earlier today I thought it would be "fun" to do the 1,000th post on this thread, but I see that others have long since beaten me to it. My congratulations/sympathy to anyone who has read everything in the thread. As for the BH family, I 1K MM & Ms BH 1K 0.6MM, we're already booked to play out the string to 1K this year, but next year anything is possible, especially if the GPUs become effectively unusable w/o "expert" mode availability.

Another very unfortunate decision for elites. The grass keeps getting greener...