In & out of SFO & also in and out of IAD seem to be the elite heaviest. Last week SFO to BOS on a Fri on a 57 when GS boarding was announced at least 25 of em boarded. I was like 20 something on a "G" fare! Front exit row worked just fine!:)

I still do. The 2nd example you cite, however, seems to have something amiss.

If everyone who tried to buy a first class ticket on this flight got one, everything is fine and UA has the right capacity for that route, that day, and that time. Looks like you paid for a coach seat and you're getting a coach seat.

Yes...I was traveling with a friend last week from SEA to EWR. He has no status and put in for a mileage upgrade 2 days out from departure. He was number 2 on the list which had 25+ people on it (and then moved to #1 when someone got the upgrade 10 minutes before departure). And, at check-in, I was offered a buy-up to First for $589 and he for $309!

Upgrade
 

With devaluation of Silver late last year, specifically locking in E+ at ticketing, we usually spring for F if the flight is longer than a couple hours and the cost is less than 2x of a coach seat on whichever airline best serves our schedule. It's one way to make domestic air travel a little more tolerable.

In the end, I fly more F, whereas before I was often in E+. The total cost isn't hugely more, as now I am free to pursue any airline versus previously going out of my way to retain Silver.

The good news is that UA is better protecting E+ for 1ks after kicking Silver out...

;)

The worst I've ever seen was 74th on the list last year as a Silver. On a 120-seat A319.

In fairness, it was a 7 am Monday flight from ORD to LGA. But I just had to chuckle.

Upgrade failure
 

Route: SEA-EWR
Status: 1K MM
Time & Day of Departure: 8:15pm, Wednesday
Flight #: 1687
Equipment: 737 (16 F seats)
Fare Class: S
Final Position: 5 of ? too many to list.

For that equipment type and that route, it's par for the course (and you will also see a lot of G/S's riding in the village)

Well, right, that's what my "beef" is about. In plain English, United has told me that after all first class seats are sold, the remaining first class seats are going to be allocated to elite travellers in accordance with an orderly (and fair sounding!) procedure. If, in fact, there were 16 other GS or 1K pax on my flight who bought higher fare tickets (IN ADDITION to the ones who already got upgraded!), that would be fine with me. I mean, that's what I was promised. But I think we all know that the odds that there could be that many 1Ks on a flight are pretty darn low. You'd literally have to be flying this route on UA every week of the year to qualify. Sure, there could be a few such people on your flight, but more than 17? It would be extremely improbable.

The more logical explanation is that there are OTHER folks on that upgrade list. Are they non-elites who bought certain upgradable fares? Some people seem to think so. Are there folks using some sort of paid upgrade instruments? Beats me. UA just owes us an honest explanation of what the REAL upgrade priorities are.

in UAs defense (one data point) when I flew on a 1K-sponsored GPU from FRA-IAD-SMF and the domestic segment waitlisted, I ended up 3/~40 on the waitlist at the gate, whereas with my own gold status I am usually in the mid-teens. so, in that case the instrument plus the associated 1K sponsor status seemed to make a major difference. YMMV.

#9 out of 44 SFO to LAX as a 1k on a 319 at 4:30 pm. Cleared the other direction at about the same time but on a 737 - same day of the week.

You're aware the NBA All-Star game festivities kick off today and the 320 only has 12 seats up front? Could be a contributor. And was the timing where it would also hook up w/ Europe departures?

Have you factored in the MM companion designations? For example, my wife flies 1-2x per year, but she's a 1K because of me.

Yup, that could be a few people. But not 17.

Is there really anyone who seriously thinks the upgrade list is just elites listed by status? That's what UA's promo materials are telling their customers. If it's not actually true, there's a problem here.

Can you point to any promotional material or program rules that say the upgrade list is ONLY populated only with elites by status as you claim?

You never responded re knowing about NBA All-Star game or timing relative to int'l connections, which could have big impact on upgrade list on a 12-seat first cabin. You're really complaining about something when you have no clue what is happening.