I'm not sure I agree. Many people do still wear masks, queues do tend to be socially distanced and there is perspex dividers everywhere still. We also have tremendous rates of vaccination. People are still being cautious but also taking calculated risks that allow them to feel life is normal.

I went out partying on friday night. Yesterday I did a LFT as my parents were visiting. I will also be travelling in Dec, you can bet I will be practically a hermit for the 10 days prior so as not to catch anything.

My anecdote doesn't mean data but, I can't believe I am alone in doing these things.

Maybe because its becoming normal, we're just not noticing it anymore.

Daily data:

Cases 45,140 (34,574 last Sunday)
Deaths 57 (38)
People vaccinated up to and including 16 October 2021:
First dose: 49,398,211
Second dose: 45,358,472

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 15.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 8.5%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 121.7 today.

I'm hearing that those aged 12-15 will soon be allowed to be vaccinated in walk -in clinics, up to now only those who are CEV (or live with the CEV) have been allowed this, with the school teams being totally responsible for administering the vaccine to this age group. It has been a problem for children who were absent on the day their school had their vaccine day. It will also mean that kids who want a parent to accompany them will be able to go to a walk in clinic at the weekend. Hopefully boost the numbers.

Yes, I've heard this on Wednesday too, though there is a lot of sensitivity about this, I haven't seen a confirmation yet. What do we do if a 12 year old walks in without a parent? Ask them to name the Chief Medical Officer? That said, in Scotland they allow child walk ins at most COVID sites, and their vaccination rate in 12 to 15 year olds is about 45%, three times that of England. In my county of Northumberland it has taken 4 weeks to crawl from 7.5% coverage to 10% coverage, when the coverage for 16 and 17 year olds, who can go to any vaccine centre, is 70%, well above the England average of 57% for that age group. Confirmed infection rates in Northumberland for 10 to 14 year olds is 2,000 per 100,000 on a 7 day basis, compared to 480 for residents of all ages.

Scotland will get back to 90% first dose coverage in a few days. They got to that level before for adults, then brought the eligible age down to 12 years. Their current 89.6% first dose coverage, 12 years plus, compares to England's 85.6%

Lots of chat on twitter about this new variant ay2 which is 10% more transmissible. Experts don't think it's a big deal and shouldn't end up as a VoC, since it doesn't evade vaccines and 10% isn't a huge number. But my fear is other countries might overreact and stick us on banned lists all across Europe again. What do the experts here think?

Thanks! Hoping for some reassurance in advance of my Christmas travels haha.

The variant is called AY.4. Actually from what I read, experts do not think anything other than "we do not know anything about it yet, so let's keep a close watch on this variant". All you can say is that it is now 8% of the variants presents in specimen in UK, possibly originate from UK (would not be surprising, with such a high level of community transmission, one more predicted thing that would happen) and it fits well in the population. It grows very fast so far, let's see how it goes. However I tend to agree that UK borders should be tighten now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBrU4SIX...jpg&name=large

The AY system are the 40 or so variants within Delta. AY.2 and AY.4 have both had a big outings in the USA and seem to be in recession there. It's just a prolific subset within Delta, should you be doing genomic sequencing to very low levels of detail, rather than being something scary and new. As far as we can tell it's functionally the same as the rest of Delta. Definitely zapped by vaccines.

From what I have read, this is a variant of delta which has been around for quite some time. It was in India by April, even before India was belatedly on the red list. The government have shown very little appetite to restrict travel from India. If these variants of delta were of concern, then I o not think we would have seen the opening up that we have had. I see no specific reason at present to worry about travel plans. I'm not!

I have personal experience in people who see lots of chats on Twitter, Insta, FB etc. All of which never materialised, were never true, made to scaremonger, manipulate or lost in translation.

My best advice is to limit your reading on certain subjects. It’s so easy to read stuff and continue reading on it until you feel anxious, unsure etc. Ultimately these platforms are designed to feed you more of what you click on and to monetise the content.

The sooner we all lessen our exposure, switch off or ditch these channels the better our mental health can be.

If you can’t ditch, then alternatively focus on content/subjects that present only facts and aren’t opinion based. Official Sports teams as one example. Or your family, loved ones posting pets photos.

Sorry to wander off topic but this is an incredibly important issue that we all need to address. It has ripped families apart.

Enjoy your Christmas travels. :)

Daily data:

Cases 49,156 (40,224 last Monday)
Deaths 45 (28)
Patients in hospital 7,097 (6,758 on the 8th)
Patients in ventilation beds 791 (780 on the 8th)
People vaccinated up to and including 17 October 2021:
First dose: 49,422,753
Second dose: 45,377,411

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 16.2% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 11.4%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 124.1 today.

I would have seconded that until a few days ago but I’m starting to worry more and more.

The sustained high infection rates seen in the UK are completely out of sync with those in the larger and comparable EU countries. 45k daily cases in the UK would, proportionate to the population, mean 60k per day Germany. The previous peaks which led to tough (and partially still in place) lockdowns were around 30k per day.

I can’t judge the healthcare situation and pressure on the system, or the risk of new home-grown immunity-escape variants so I don’t know how concerned we should be.
I do know however that there is increasing nervousness on the Continent…

I suppose the trends evident in the data contained in your daily bulletins might create a measure of concern.
With an increasing proportion of our population carrying the virus, our relatively unfettered access as visitors to other countries might be curtailed.

An interesting analysis (thread) of the possible explanations for why England and the UK are doing much worse than many other European countries:

For a country with such a good initial vaccine rollout, the rollout in 12-15 (in Eng) + boosters has been SO embarrassing - right before winter.

Patients on ventilator beds up for the first time in a while...