... which gives a current daily shortfall of over 200k people - so every day increases the averaged 360k per day to meet the deadline.

WHOOSH - the sound a deadline makes as it passes by at speed. ;)

There's a BBC quiz on "How much do you know about the new lockdown rules". I wanted to share a couple of screenshots of explanations that are provided. The website also gives the % of responses given by the users, I believe, although it's impossible to say how many people have done the test. It pretty much sums up


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...e4a465880f.png

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https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...0116d2ed0c.png
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https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...949c02d9fa.png
.

Where would you rather be then (from Bloomberg)?

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...17022cd8e4.jpg
I'm more than happy with the way it is going and we should be proud that we were the first country in the world to start vaccinating on Dec 8th. We also vaccinated the first German, the first French, and the list goes on. In my family there are quite a few over 80 and they have all had their first jab.

I would agree with your sentiment there. I would agree that vaccination has for now been on the whole one of the rare success stories of the UK in terms of management of the covid crisis.

I would withhold judgment of the "where would you rather be?" question on a broader plane, because we are also in an extremely critical position in the short term in terms of current levels of infection and of hospitalisation compared to our facilities but there is no doubt that, on the vaccination front, I am more or less happy with where we are going, even though there is always room for things to be better and I have some discomfort with some aspects of the policy being followed (such as the decision to delay the second shot).

I can't say that I am overly perturbed at a self-imposed deadline being missed if the overall progress remains sound.

And to add just a little more to it (and to be clear I am not gloating, but taking one positive morsel about something we are currently doing well and seem to be being envied for):

Brexit Britain should help vaccinate Ireland

So let's cheer up a bit, well as much as we Brits ever will! :)

Weather's a bit rubbish though. :)

Indeed yes - clearly much better being here and having a reasonable degree of clarity on the vaccination timetable, than anywhere in the EU (with the possible exception of Germany which has broken the EU's rules and ordered, for itself only, significantly greater quantities of the Pfizer vaccine than permitted).
Certainly procurement of vaccines has been a great success for the Government - it's just I have a sinking feeling that handing them to the NHS to administer will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I think - but that's the way I'm wired - that we shouldn't really looking at being "proud" for being first but we should be looking at being on schedule and doing it properly. With regards to the schedule, if we compare where we are, how it's progressing and where the government wants to be in a couple of months... we're behind. As for doing it properly, the question of delaying the second jab is still open and as far as I know (happy to be proven wrong) it doesn't seem that anyone else is following us on that route.

I am not sure how you can conclude that from the chart Silver Fox posted? This chart shows vaccines given which suggests both supply and actual deployment of the vaccine in the UK has been significantly better than seen elsewhere in the Europe.

The AZ was formally approved in the UK on the basis of a second dose anywhere from 4-12 weeks. There is nothing controversial in giving a second dose at 12 weeks rather than 4 to maximise numbers having at least one dose.

The Pfizer vaccine was approved on the basis of a second does at least 21 days later, but there is no maximum limit in the approval.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is therefore recommending the dosing regime for both be changed to 12 weeks between first and second dose in order to maximise the number receive at least one dose.

I understand that the decision wasn't made on a whim but, still, I think we are the only ones to be doing this. And, again please correct me if I'm wrong, but Pfizer was on record saying that they'd never tested the efficacy of delaying shots by the amount of time we are delaying it.

All I want to say is that it's too early to be singing victory, or to go Gav Williamson. We've followed disastrous paths before ("herd immunity", anyone?), even when guided by the science. I think it'd be wise not to relent, not to sing victory, until the proverbial fat lady sings... and I don't mean to body-shame the lady.

To be fair, I don’t think anyone is singing victory yet, or even suggesting we are near that stage yet - especially when we have record numbers of people in hospital and we are all locked down.

However, if we agree the vaccine is the route out of this mess, the one shining star in the whole handling of this in the UK is the vaccine deployment. This is not just a little better, it is orders of magnitude better than has been seen in Europe.

I enjoyed Tim Harford's comment this morning on R4 "More or Less", and can now see that the Govt deadline can safely be met and I should not have any further concerns.

As the jab is not compulsory it is only offered to recipients. On 14 February the Govt will issue letters to the remaining 1.5m people offering them a jab (at some point) and the deadline will then have been met.

It is the same way that they sent 100k testing kits out to meet a previous target, not getting them back or checking them.

Almost the only thing I approve of in the handling of the pandemic in the UK so far is the priority list for Covid vaccination. I've shared it with FB friends and they all support it including several who are in the medical profession in other countries. In the US each state establishes their own priority list. A friend who lives in a retirement community in California is appalled that he and his wife, both in their late 70s, are unlikely to be vaccinated until sometime in April while his relatives in their 40s working from home in Texas have been vaccinated. Recruitment of vaccination teams seems to be well ahead in the UK compared to some other (first world) countries.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...f17918afe.jpeg

My father (80+) got his NHS letter today (post marked 5 days ago). First available appointment at one of the hubs 4th February!

Pfizer have made it very clear that their clinical trials were not designed to test the efficacy and safety of their vaccine where doses are delivered 3 months apart. The trials they conducted generated data for an interval analysis of 19 to 42 days. The trial was not designed to test an 84-day hypothesis.

However, the The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has satisfied itself that what data is available lends support to there being no attenuation in the effectiveness of the drug when doses are much more widely spaced than the intervals tested by Pfizer. The alternative reasoning, not so clearly spelled out publicly, is that any decrease in efficacy in the treatment of an individual will be compensated for by wider benefits within the community. I am sure appropriate, parallel, committees have considered the ethical dimensions of this.

The committee's analysis may well have the tacit support of Pfizer: the public position taken by the company may simply be arse covering - indeed, the low profile dissent suggests this is the case.

In practice, the JCVI is extending the clinical trials. Following up patients receiving the extended interval regime in the months ahead will supplement Pfizer's research: it will indicate the impacts, positive and negative, of increasing the interval to 400% of that recommended by the manufacturer.