How to convince your S.O. to take a bump?
Dec 16, 2003, 9:13 pm
#1
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Honolulu, Hawaiʻi [+MKK4 EBBER R577 EDSEL R577 ELKEY EXERT]
Posts: 15,826
How to convince your S.O. to take a bump?
We've got a MSP-HNL flight on Thursday that's looking dead packed on ITN (goose eggs across) but yet my S.O. doesn't want to take a bump because we might need to spend the night in MSP and she wants to get home.
Any suggestions that might sway her into picking up an extra $300 in TCVs?
Aloha
Any suggestions that might sway her into picking up an extra $300 in TCVs?
Aloha
Dec 16, 2003, 10:38 pm
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Programs: Frontier Gold, DL estranged 1MMer, Spirit VIP, CO/NW/UA/AA once gold/plat/comped gold now dust.
Posts: 38,298
Offer to take her to the Mall of America. Can also hint that, if forced to go solo, MSP area has some good strip clubs with the occasional blonde-all-over Nordic-descended locals.
Dec 17, 2003, 12:16 am
#7
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,682
My brother promises the sister in law that he will use the bump to take her on a weekend vacation. Although the last voucher is getting used to see our parents over Christmas so she may not believe him anymore.
Perhaps tell her that she can spend her half at the Mall of America. What kind of woman wouldn't go for that offer.
[This message has been edited by hindukid (edited Dec 17, 2003).]
Perhaps tell her that she can spend her half at the Mall of America. What kind of woman wouldn't go for that offer.
[This message has been edited by hindukid (edited Dec 17, 2003).]
Dec 17, 2003, 9:29 am
#8
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,599
They'd have to pony up a heckuva lot more than $300 to get me to do an overnight bump! I've done it twice in my life - once for $600 and once for $750, both on AA - and both times I later wondered if it was worth it. I don't blame your S.O. for not wanting to bump overnight solely for a small airline voucher.
Having said that, if you guys decide you really would enjoy an evening in MSP, you could be in position to score a lot more than $300 each. If they in fact need to bump quite a few people, they might have trouble finding the volunteers.
- Most pax on your flight are connecting from somewhere else. They haven't gameplanned an evening in 0 degree weather because they are HNL-bound.
- Most pax outbound to Hawaii for leisure have a confirmed hotel reservation. If they don't show up until a day later, they probably still have to pay for that first night, as a lot of places require 24-72 hours notice to change/cancel a night. So the psuedo-cash enticement isn't as attractive considering the real-cash cost.
- Most pax outbound to Hawaii just really want to get there.
- Even among folks like you heading home that have some time flexibility, most people haven't thought through an extra night away from home and therefore won't be in a receptive mindset when the announcement is made for volunteers.
(Those two times I accepted an overnight bump were when I sort of saw it coming and had thought it through beforehand. Ask me on the spot to do it, and I just say "no" and get on the plane.)
What I'd do is agree on a number with your wife: if the bidding hits $750 a head or $1000 or whatever your magic number is, take the bump and enjoy an evening in MSP. The fact that there are two of you (meaning 2x$750 or whatever) makes it a bit easier of a pill to swallow.
And even in cold weather, you'll enjoy an evening in MSP. There are lots of fun neighborhoods in which to go have a nice dinner/drinks. Just bundle up and have fun...
Having said that, if you guys decide you really would enjoy an evening in MSP, you could be in position to score a lot more than $300 each. If they in fact need to bump quite a few people, they might have trouble finding the volunteers.
- Most pax on your flight are connecting from somewhere else. They haven't gameplanned an evening in 0 degree weather because they are HNL-bound.
- Most pax outbound to Hawaii for leisure have a confirmed hotel reservation. If they don't show up until a day later, they probably still have to pay for that first night, as a lot of places require 24-72 hours notice to change/cancel a night. So the psuedo-cash enticement isn't as attractive considering the real-cash cost.
- Most pax outbound to Hawaii just really want to get there.
- Even among folks like you heading home that have some time flexibility, most people haven't thought through an extra night away from home and therefore won't be in a receptive mindset when the announcement is made for volunteers.
(Those two times I accepted an overnight bump were when I sort of saw it coming and had thought it through beforehand. Ask me on the spot to do it, and I just say "no" and get on the plane.)
What I'd do is agree on a number with your wife: if the bidding hits $750 a head or $1000 or whatever your magic number is, take the bump and enjoy an evening in MSP. The fact that there are two of you (meaning 2x$750 or whatever) makes it a bit easier of a pill to swallow.
And even in cold weather, you'll enjoy an evening in MSP. There are lots of fun neighborhoods in which to go have a nice dinner/drinks. Just bundle up and have fun...
Dec 17, 2003, 12:10 pm
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Honolulu, Hawaiʻi [+MKK4 EBBER R577 EDSEL R577 ELKEY EXERT]
Posts: 15,826
Thanks for all of your *clean* responses.
Looks as if the flight tomorrow is still oversold but I've got a few alternatives that might be able to get us home a little later tomorrow.
I'm a bump fanatic, but it just doesn't look like it'll happen as my connection leaves me with 40 minutes layover. Perhaps, like you say, pinniped, they'll be desperate, and it is NW's newest flight MSP-HNL (they recently as of yesterday? discontinued the LAX-HNL route to pave way for another MSP-HNL and a SEA-OGG route), so perhaps the chances are greater.
NW's 2x MSP-HNL routes on Friday are oversold as well... as well as every connection that I've got planned is oversold in Y but still have a few F seats open. It's all in the bump gods hands now.
Aloha and Mele Kalikimaka
Looks as if the flight tomorrow is still oversold but I've got a few alternatives that might be able to get us home a little later tomorrow.
I'm a bump fanatic, but it just doesn't look like it'll happen as my connection leaves me with 40 minutes layover. Perhaps, like you say, pinniped, they'll be desperate, and it is NW's newest flight MSP-HNL (they recently as of yesterday? discontinued the LAX-HNL route to pave way for another MSP-HNL and a SEA-OGG route), so perhaps the chances are greater.
NW's 2x MSP-HNL routes on Friday are oversold as well... as well as every connection that I've got planned is oversold in Y but still have a few F seats open. It's all in the bump gods hands now.
Aloha and Mele Kalikimaka
Dec 17, 2003, 12:15 pm
#10
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Flyover Country, USA, NW Silver, Hilton Gold
Posts: 518
Just yesterday Continental announced they were looking for 6 bump volunteers from Houston to Mexico City. They offered $600 vouchers pp, hotel overnigh and FC out the next day. I didn't notice anyone taking the offer.
Thought you might use this as a reference.
Thought you might use this as a reference.
Dec 17, 2003, 12:24 pm
#11
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: London, England.
Programs: BA
Posts: 8,485
What on earth is it with US airline reservation systems that they so obviously oversell themselves into problems ? Can they not calculate the numbers ? A friend once worked for BA at Heathrow doing all the overbooking prediction formulae for this on the reservations system (he was a Maths geek, inevitably!) and they took immense pride in getting the figures as right as they could, as often as they could - departing with no empty seats, and no one bumped.
Leaving London, where you could have a lot of incoming connecting passengers delayed is a real challenge, but they were up to it. The variables in the computer program were immense. Story of a flight they let go up to +50 on reservations but eventually leaving with one spare seat (strong whisky for the load control manager after work that day!)
Leaving London, where you could have a lot of incoming connecting passengers delayed is a real challenge, but they were up to it. The variables in the computer program were immense. Story of a flight they let go up to +50 on reservations but eventually leaving with one spare seat (strong whisky for the load control manager after work that day!)
Dec 17, 2003, 1:14 pm
#12
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: MCI
Programs: AA Gold 1MM, AS MVP, UA Silver, WN A-List, Marriott LT Titanium, HH Diamond
Posts: 52,599
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by WHBM:
What on earth is it with US airline reservation systems that they so obviously oversell themselves into problems ? Can they not calculate the numbers ?</font>
What on earth is it with US airline reservation systems that they so obviously oversell themselves into problems ? Can they not calculate the numbers ?</font>
I've spent about a decade traveling for business, mostly at peak times, and VDB is still much rarer than you think. I think of my weekly Friday afternoon MD-80 from ORD to MCI that I was on for years: that thing was always sold out to 0's in all classes - which was 19 overbooked in most weeks, according to the gate agent.
Maybe 3-4 times a year I'd get a VDB voucher from that one (and if they were taking names, I was probably #1 on the list). More frequently, they'd get 1 or 2 standbys on the flight and send it off 100% full. Pretty good load management IMHO. Even Chicago's notorious bad weather would only hose things up badly once or twice a year (on my travel days).
Bottom line is that they've definitely determined that is it more profitable to oversell than to book flights only to 100% full. They know that we, the consumer, like vouchers and other non-cash goodies (free tickets, future upgrades, etc.) enough that an oversell will hardly ever result in an IDB situation. They know we'll take those things and go get on a less-full flight. It works out great for both the airlines and for those of us that like to play the game.
Dec 17, 2003, 5:20 pm
#13
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Honolulu, Hawaiʻi [+MKK4 EBBER R577 EDSEL R577 ELKEY EXERT]
Posts: 15,826
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by pinniped:
Anyone have stats on VDB and IDB percentages? I'm going to guess that the airlines ARE very good at running their forecasting algorithms and send off 95+% of their flights without needed to VDB anyone and 99.9+% without needing to IDB anyone.
</font>
Anyone have stats on VDB and IDB percentages? I'm going to guess that the airlines ARE very good at running their forecasting algorithms and send off 95+% of their flights without needed to VDB anyone and 99.9+% without needing to IDB anyone.
</font>
Right on the money, pinniped!
http://www.bts.gov/publications/nati...ble_01_58.html
Code:
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Boarded 420,696 429,190 445,271 449,184 457,286 460,277 480,555 502,960 514,170 523,081 543,344 498,304 467,205 Denied boardingb, total 628 646 764 683 824 843 957 1,071 1,136 1,070 1,120 942 837 Voluntary 561 599 718 632 771 794 899 1,018 1,091 1,024 1,062 899 803 Involuntary 67 47 46 51 53 49 58 54 45 46 57 43 34 Percent denied boarding 0.15% 0.15% 0.17% 0.15% 0.18% 0.18% 0.20% 0.21% 0.22% 0.20% 0.21% 0.19% 0.18%
Dec 17, 2003, 6:16 pm
#14
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 8,222
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by cecelia:
Just yesterday Continental announced they were looking for 6 bump volunteers from Houston to Mexico City. They offered $600 vouchers pp, hotel overnigh and FC out the next day. I didn't notice anyone taking the offer.
Thought you might use this as a reference.
</font>
Just yesterday Continental announced they were looking for 6 bump volunteers from Houston to Mexico City. They offered $600 vouchers pp, hotel overnigh and FC out the next day. I didn't notice anyone taking the offer.
Thought you might use this as a reference.
</font>
Dec 18, 2003, 3:57 am
#15
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Sunny Switzerland
Programs: BD / BA / AF
Posts: 4,388
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by RustyC:
MSP area has some good strip clubs with the occasional blonde-all-over Nordic-descended locals.</font>
MSP area has some good strip clubs with the occasional blonde-all-over Nordic-descended locals.</font>
